Israel remains more dangerous than Iran in the Arab opinion



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Last week, I met an interesting poll about Arab opinions about everything from democracy to corruption to satellite TV. The most interesting thing for me was the opinions on the all-or-nothing threat of regional and other powers.

First, the facts that accompany it. It is the sixth episode of Arab Opinion India x, directed by the Arab Center for Research and Political Studies in Doha, Qatar. A total of 18,830 people in 11 Arab countries, including non-Qatar but including Egypt, Morocco and Saudi Arabia, were interviewed by 840 men and women who spent 45,000 hours in personal conversations. A bit of Qatar: I already told you that it's important to know which country is hiding behind a search or media because who pays determines, is not it? I could not see any noticeable pro-Qatar or anti-Saudi differences in the questions / results – but I would say, check to arabcenterdc.org

Good. This will surprise you, and it is that Iran is only on the third place foreign threats, with a total of 66% yes, and yes, in a sense. It also surprised me in the growing anti-Iranian rhetoric of many Arab leaders and others, in front of the Saudi Crown Prince ("Hitler is in Tehran") and Trump of course ("this murderous regime"). It is not that Tehran receives much support from pollsters: no more than 21% see anything positive in Iran's foreign policy. But the Iranian danger is clearly less perceived by the Arab man / woman in the street than on two, the American threat: 84% "yes, yes" and "yes, in a sense". And on an Israel, with 90%.

This is particularly interesting because several Arab leaders who are officially at war with Israel (not Egypt and Jordan) are increasingly looking for a rapprochement with the Jewish state, because there is no way in the world. shared aversion and fear of Iran. It has been a long time since we reported on the cooperation between the security services of Israel and those of Saudi Arabia in particular, which was so anti-Israel there is not so long ago.

In the international media, there is even now speculation about official relations, in which case the Palestinians become collateral damage . As the official collective Arab position – expressed in the 2002 peace initiative and upheld in 2007 and 2017 – is such that normalization with Israel depends on the Israeli withdrawal from all occupied territories and the establishment of 39, an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem. like the capital. Well, it is clear that there is no movement in this direction, on the contrary, Palestinians are increasingly trapped between Israeli settlements.

Since the beginning of this survey in 2011, about 85% of respondents claim to be a diplomatic recognition of Israel each year . Main reason (45%): Israeli occupation and treatment of Palestinians. But also (23%): Israel threatens the security of the region. More than three quarters also believe that the Palestinian cause concerns all Arabs, not just Palestinians.

Arab leaders, and others, base their policies primarily on their own opinion and do not agree with it. it's going in the cell. Yet, I wonder if even the Saudi Crown Prince dares to face such massive resistance.

Carolien Roelants is an expert in the Middle East and separates facts from hypes every week.

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