New oil sanctions pose a risk to Iran and the global economy

. do Americans now demand from Iran?

Iranians must fulfill twelve conditions before sanctions are lifted. For example, they must permanently stop their nuclear program and Iran is no longer allowed to launch ballistic missiles. In addition, he must withdraw from Syria and Iraq. Support for the Shiite Hezbollah group and Palestinian Hamas in Lebanon must also stop. Later, Foreign Minister Pompeo added another condition: more respect for human rights.

What exactly are the sanctions imposed by the United States?

After previously trading the dollar trade between the US dollar and Iran, those in steel, aluminum, graphite, precious metals, coal and industrial process software, they hope Iran must carry a new blow hard by banning oil imports. Moreover, their transportation is punishable. Washington wants to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero. This is potentially a serious threat. Oil accounts for about 70% of Iran's export earnings. The government covers half of its expenses.

Will the sanctions against Iran be effective?

"You can not achieve any of your goals," President Hassan Rohani predicted last week. interview with an Iranian news agency. It looks like greatness. The threat of new sanctions alone has led to a sharp decline in Iranian oil sales. In April, Iran produced 2.8 million barrels a day, which has already decreased by one third. US allies such as Japan and South Korea have already stopped their imports from Iran.

And what are China doing, India and Turkey?

The largest importer of Iranian oil, China, simply can not be legislated by Washington, especially now that it is in a trade war. Even before the year 2015, when the sanctions were in force, China often avoided it. The opening of China's strengths will not be clear. In recent weeks, it has been reported that some tankers are temporarily installing their transponders in Chinese waters and then secretly delivering oil to ports such as Dalian. If necessary, China also negotiates bartering with Iran. Cars made for oil, for example.

India, number two importer with an import of about 500,000 barrels a day, informed the United States in October that Indians could no longer do without Iranian oil before March 2019. " We can not stop imports from Iran at a time when alternatives are expensive, "said a government source against the Reuters news agency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in the upcoming elections next year, does not want to give the impression of a bowtie for Washington. However, large private companies such as Reliance have already stopped their imports of Iranian oil.

Turkey, importer number four, has halved its imports from Iran, but would like to continue importing oil from the neighboring country.

5What are the consequences for the international oil market?

Iran is the third largest producer in the oil cartel. If Iranian production fails in part, it would increase the world price of oil. This is not only pleasant for Indians, but also for other countries. Especially since the price has reached 80 dollars a barrel of crude in recent weeks, its highest level in four years. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia can fill a long-term void, but not immediately.

Will Americans have trouble playing?

This is not yet clear. Trumps, Trumps National Security Advisor advocates an approach as strict as possible. But in the foreign affairs and finance ministries, it is clear that Americans can also do a lot of damage to the global economy and their relations with other countries. German companies producing items such as building materials and medicines, for example, have asked the US Embassy in Berlin for clarification on how to maintain their business. An appointment was canceled a week and a half ago, reports Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung . Likely cause: disagreement on the American side on the implementation of the rules. There is increasing evidence that Americans would be willing to grant waivers to countries such as China, India, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea, at least for a while. Analysts believe that Iran will be able to sell a million barrels a day for the moment through all kinds of channels. This was also the case during sanctions prior to 2015.

Can Iran survive US sanctions?

The economic situation in Iran is deteriorating rapidly. Many poor people can no longer afford meat, dairy products or fruits because prices have risen sharply. President Rohani's government plans to distribute food parcels to a few million poor people. The Iranian currency, the rial, has fallen: you received 40,000 rials for one dollar more than a year ago, or 150,000. Unemployment and social unrest are rising rapidly. For a moment, the truck drivers stopped, then the teachers again. Towards the end of the year, large demonstrations against the government took place in many places. Nevertheless, the chances of a broad uprising are considered low, especially because the demonstrations lack an attractive leader. Even the previous sanctions did not ultimately weigh on the scheme.

What does the European Union do against the sanctions imposed by the United States

The EU is opposed to sanctions but is still studying ways to change that. Many large European companies such as Total, Siemens and Peugeot have already withdrawn. They fear losing an income from the United States. The High Representative for Foreign Affairs of the European Union, Federica Mogherini, is working on a special-purpose vehicle that could be exchanged directly with Iran in euros. No EU country has yet offered to host this institution. The fear of the United States goes far. KLM has also stopped flights to Iran. And Iranian planes flying to Schiphol can no longer refuel. This must be done in Prague or Budapest.