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Should the United States invest in a generation of new intercontinental ballistic missiles? What really drove decades of steadily increasing computer performance? Is research into new forms of nuclear energy a dead end? And should we credit Elon Musk for revolutionizing the auto industry, or is he just following in the footsteps of history?
These are the kinds of questions that researchers who study the history of innovation and what it says about the future say we can now answer, thanks, of course, to innovation. Using both untapped data pools and new analytical methods, as well as the usual modern day forecasting tools, namely predictive algorithms often described as “artificial intelligence”, they take a quantitative approach to examine how quickly technologies improve.
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