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In 1972, scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology made a bold prediction. By developing a scientific model that takes into account how humans and the planet interact with each other, the researchers determined that society was heading for collapse by the middle of the 21st century, largely under the impulse of the forces of population growth and capital that overexploit finite planets Resources. Almost 50 years later, a researcher from one of the world’s largest accounting firms took to the infamous study to see how the model compared to reality. Turns out we’re on schedule for our planned demise – which is great, because there is nothing worse than a buzzing doomsday event.
The new study, spotted by Vice, was conducted by Gaya Herrington, head of sustainability analysis and dynamic system at accounting giant KPMG. It serves as an update to the classic research, which was published under the title The limits of growth. As part of his master’s thesis at Harvard University, Herrington analyzed the model using 10 variables to verify its degree of prediction: population, fertility rate, death rate, industrial production, food production, services. , non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human well-being and ecological footprint. By taking the model’s projections of these indicators and comparing them to empirical data, she was able to determine how well scientists were able to predict our reality, as well as determine what trajectory we are on now.
It turns out that we are following two scenarios, and neither is particularly good. There is the Global Technology (CT) scenario, in which the economic decline begins at around (checks shows) now, in fact. It suggests a number of negative outcomes, including a short-term decline in food production and sharp swings in a number of categories, including industrial production, as the population stabilizes. The good news, if you want to call it that, is that the company does not collapse under these circumstances. Our habit of depleting resources comes to an end as new technologies develop and food production eventually recovers.
Things are not so rosy along the second trail we can take, known as the status quo scenario. This one assumes that we are fundamentally making no changes to our current behavior. Much like the CT scenario, this track predicts that economic growth will soon begin to collapse, hitting a wall around 2030. But instead of a brief hiccup or stagnation, the status quo trajectory sees things start to fall. collapse. Population, food production, industrial production and other categories all experience a sharp decline around 2040, with pollution skyrocketing as we rapidly exploit and burn the planet’s remaining available resources with complete disregard of the consequences. .
“Both scenarios therefore indicate that the continuation of the status quo, that is to say the pursuit of continuous growth, is not possible,” concludes Harrington in his research. “Even when paired with unprecedented technological development and adoption, the status quo such as [Limits to Growth] would inevitably lead to declines in industrial capital, agricultural production and welfare levels during this century. “
The only scenario in which we are not in the throes of some sort of major global disruption, the “stabilized world” scenario, is technically not out of reach – but the new study warns that the window to enter this track is. closes quickly. And it would take a real effort to get there. First, we must recognize that economic growth cannot happen at an exponential rate forever. Eventually, things need to stabilize – and we need to preemptively align with that. At the 2020 World Economic Forum, Harrington suggested pursuing an economic theory known as “growth,” which prioritizes alternative markers of economic success, such as sustainability, over traditional indicators such as growth. GDP.
If there’s any optimism in a study that confirms we’re headed for economic disaster and societal collapse, it’s that we have some time to figure things out. The next 10 years will probably be the barometer of our destiny, and we can still beat the buzzer. Promises to dramatically reduce fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions will go a long way in ensuring that we do not deplete natural resources. Ideas like universal basic income and the growth of labor movements can help reshape the way we think about work and economic growth.
Models are not fate. We can actively choose to get off the apocalyptic trail. But we have to do it soon.
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