Newsom has strong support in latest California recall investigation

OAKLAND – With a strong majority of residents backing his handling of Covid-19 amid the spread of the Delta variant, California Governor Gavin Newsom enjoys the support of a strong majority of likely voters who say they vote against its recall, according to a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California.

The survey released Wednesday night showed 58% of likely voters say they will reject the recall, with just 39% voting yes. The margin is slightly larger than in two previous PPIC polls this year with less than two weeks to go before the Sept. 14 election, the latest evidence the Democratic governor has gained breathing space in recent polls, according to a consolidated average from FiveThirtyEight.

There remains a strong partisan divide, with nearly all Democratic probable voters (90%) and around half of probable Independent voters (49%) saying they would keep Newsom in power, while the vast majority of Republican probable voters (82 %) say they would take it off.

A key factor in Newsom’s strength appears to be overwhelming concerns about Covid-19, as the Delta variant leads to increased rates of infection and hospitalizations. Newsom’s approval and disapproval figures for its handling of Covid are identical to the breakdown of recalls – both at 58-39%, according to the poll.

The poll showed Californians name Covid-19 as the main problem the state faces today, and most support the governor’s recent policies. Almost two-thirds of Californians support the requirement of proof of Covid-19 vaccination for large outdoor gatherings or certain indoor spaces and more than three-quarters of state residents – including strong majorities in all regions – say they think the state government under his leadership is doing an excellent or good job of distributing Covid-19 vaccines.

Newsom’s campaign has leaned heavily on its pandemic policies in recent weeks, telling voters the recall is a “life or death” situation because its Republican challengers would roll back security measures. The Governor has a significant fundraising advantage with more than $ 60 million raised, compared to around $ 7 million generated by the GOP’s main competitor, Larry Elder.

California’s recall ballot has two questions: first, whether voters want to recall Newsom; and second, that they want to replace the governor if a majority of voters oust him. If Newsom survives the first question, the second becomes moot.

Among the candidates for the GOP replacement, Republican talk show host Larry Elder extended his lead to 26%, overtaking the rest of the field in the PPIC poll. Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer is second at 5%, while businessman John Cox and Assembly member Kevin Kiley are at 3% each.

Support for reality TV star and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner is just 1%, while 14% of voters nominated a variety of other candidates. According to the poll, half of voters say they would not vote for a replacement or do not know who they would vote for.

Newsom and California Democrats urged their supporters to ignore the replacement issue altogether. Republicans make up more than half of the candidates, but nine Democrats are also on the ballot.

Other findings from the latest PPIC survey include:

– Although the recall campaign was first launched by Republicans, poll shows there are now more cross votes among Republicans than Democrats – with 17% of probable GOP voters saying they will vote no on the recall, compared to just 7% of Democrats saying they will vote yes.

– Enthusiasm is still a factor in the election, however, with 54% of Republicans saying they are more motivated to vote than usual compared to just 40% of Democrats. But Democrats were more likely to say the outcome is “very important” than Republicans.

– Republicans are still more aware of the recall than Democrats, with 52% of probable GOP voters following it “very closely” compared to just 36% of Democrats.

–President Biden has the approval of about 6 in 10 Californians.

– Forty-seven percent say things in California are generally heading in the right direction, but there is a deep partisan divide, according to the PPIC poll. Nearly half of state residents say California is in an economic recession, the poll found.

The latest PPIC survey is based on a survey of 1,706 adult California residents from August 20-29, 2021. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4%.