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Quite possibly, Californian voters are opposed to the Republican-led recall effort against Gov. Gavin Newsom and a growing number fear the consequences of his removal from office with a far-right conservative best suited to take his place. , according to a new poll by the non-partisan. California Institute of Public Policy.
The poll found that 58% of probable voters polled in California oppose Newsom’s impeachment, compared with 39% who support the governor’s recall, a gap rooted in the clear partisan divide between Democratic and Republican voters in the state. .
The results, which were collected by pollsters over a nine-day period ending Sunday, may offer some hope for Newsom, who last month expressed fears that a “enthusiasm gap” among voters. Democrats and unaffiliated does not lead to his political demise. – especially with a high commitment to the recall effort among Republicans.
In response, Newsom has blanketed California with ads attacking the top GOP candidates, portraying them as loyalists to former President Trump who oppose state mandates for COVID-19 vaccinations and the port. masks, a clear strategy to rally the Californian electorate of the left.
At an event in Oakland on Tuesday promoting the vaccination, Newsom said Californians should treat their vote in the recall as a life or death decision because top GOP candidates have said they will cancel the votes. mandates from its administration for schoolchildren to wear masks in classrooms, mandatory vaccinations for healthcare workers, and requirements that government employees, teachers and school staff be vaccinated or tested regularly for the virus.
Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the institute, said among the poll’s most revealing results were increased voter fears about the potential consequences in California if Newsom was ousted in the Sept. 14 election and concerns growing as to whether the campaign to oust Newsom is an appropriate use of the state’s recall process.
The survey found that 41% of likely voters said California would be worse if Newsom was recalled, compared to 31% who thought things would get better in the state. Others thought everything would stay the same or didn’t know it. Forty-four percent thought it was appropriate to use the state’s recall process to remove Newsom from office, up from 52% in a similar poll in March.
“Democrats have heard messages about the roots of this recall and what would happen with COVID and other things if Newsom is removed,” Baldassare said. “It didn’t move Republican voters or independent voters much, but did impact Democratic voters.”
Likely voters’ opinions on Newsom as governor and recall elections largely match biases in a state where registered Democrats are almost 2 to 1.
Nine in 10 Democratic voters opposed Newsom’s ouster while 82% of Republicans wanted him to leave. Independent voters, who register as “no party preference” were more evenly distributed, with 49% opposing the recall and 44% supporting it.
Baldassare said levels of support and opposition to Newsom’s recall were closely tied to those found in the institute’s polls in May and March.
However, a separate poll released in late July by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found California voters were likely almost equally divided over whether to recall Newsom.
The difference in the results reflects the difficulties in determining who may be a “likely voter,” a calculation that is often based on factors such as voting history, interest in the current election and whether a person is considering voting. to vote.
Making this decision is particularly difficult with regard to the recall election. Not only does the election take place at a strange time – mid-September – it’s the only thing on the ballot. The last time California held a recall election was in October 2003, when the government of the day. Gray Davis was ousted and replaced by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.
There are no movie stars or prominent Democrats on the ballot in his day.
Newsom’s anti-recall campaign has largely focused on the yoke of Republicans running for Trump, who was outright defeated in California by Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.
The governor’s attacks in recent weeks have targeted conservative talk show host Larry Elder, who has become the favorite of many Trump supporters and evangelicals.
Newsom, in a Zoom call with Move On activists on Wednesday night, expanded its attacks on Elder and the rest of the Republican field, saying they would work to dismantle abortion rights and the public school system by allowing parents to receive government bonds to send their children to private school.
Elder was his main target.
“He has this in common with all the other Republicans who have all backed Trump,” Newsom said. “Elder, Day One, will eliminate with the stroke of a pen, by decree, the mask requirements in our public schools, eliminate the verification of vaccines for our health care workers and our school and government employees. “
At a press conference on Wednesday, Elder dismissed the idea that the recall effort was supported only by Republicans.
“It’s generalized. It’s not just Republicans, Independents and Democrats who are also suffering. So it’s just more misguided to take the time and attention to why he’s being recalled, ”Elder said.
The poll found that Elder is by far the most popular choice among the top Republican candidates vying to replace Newsom if he is recalled.
Among the likely voters, 26% are in favor of Elder, compared to 5% for former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, and 3% each for Rocklin Assembly member Kevin Kiley and businessman of Rancho Sante Fe John Cox, whom Newsom defeated in the 2018 gubernatorial election. Reality star and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner signed up at 1%.
About a quarter of those polled said they were undecided, and an equal number said they were not going to vote for a replacement candidate or vote.
“Only one candidate stands up because of the recognition of his name and his association with conservative causes. It’s very appealing to people who support the recall, ”said Baldassare.
Elder’s following among conservative talk show listeners also gave him an edge due to the compressed nature of the recall campaign, which ran in just over two months, Baldassare said. Traditional campaigns for Governor of California can span years.
The September 14 poll has two questions: Should Newsom be removed from his post and, if he is ousted, which replacement candidate should take his place.
If Newsom is recalled, the candidate on the ballot that receives the most votes wins, regardless of the number of votes he receives. The crowded field of candidates is expected to divide the electorate, meaning that a Republican who gets only a small fraction of the vote could become California’s next governor. No Republican has won a statewide election since 2006.
The ballots have already been mailed to all registered voters in California. Returns from mail-in ballots so far show that more than twice as many Democrats have voted as Republicans, and that liberal areas of the state such as the Bay Area have the highest return rates, according to state officials and policy data researchers.
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