How Trump's trade war could go sideways on him

US President Donald Trump is a man who judges his success stories – both real and embellished. But his trade war turns anecdotes against him, and there are more and more signs of trouble, even though the war officially began on Friday.

A poll conducted by The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy The George Mason University Government asked if people thought that Trump's "known taxes" against China were a good thing or a bad thing, in the light of reports that China will fight back with its own rights over US products. In total, 56% of voters said the situation was bad for US jobs

. However, the most important concern was the cost of the products. About three-quarters of voters – 73% – are worried about the impact of the trade war on them

and this concern was even greater in Battle House districts that will decide 2018. In these districts, 78% said that the trade war with China would be bad for the price of products. And even a strong majority of Republicans nationwide – 56 percent – shared this concern.

The numbers come about a week after we had the first important news on tariff-compliant companies, which have also been applied in Canada, Mexico and the European Union. To date, a major American nail company, Mid-Continent Nail of Missouri, has laid off 60 employees and faces its potential demise by the end of summer. Then came the larger case of Harley-Davidson, the motorcycle manufacturer who said it would move more of its production overseas facing EU retaliatory tariffs. Now, BMW and General Motors warn against rising auto prices, Volvo could cancel 4000 new jobs expected in South Carolina, and polysilicon manufacturer REC Silicon has announced that it would fire 100 people – citing all prices.

Trump's decision to launch trade wars with the EU, China and our North American neighbors will eventually succeed. These judgments are for economists to do months and years on the line. They must also take into account the global economy and the many factors that play it. And a dozen or a dozen companies that manufacture factories, file people or move production, painful for real people in real time, could be the cost of creating jobs in other industries or create a better trade balance.

This message actually seems to be coming – at least for Trump's base. While Republicans worry about the cost of products by a margin of 56-37, they think that the trade war with China will actually be good for US jobs, with a margin of 64-29.

But this immediate pain is also the point, politically. We have a president who, from his early days as president-elect, praised the companies that brought home jobs as a sign of his prowess and shone when companies announced bonuses to employees in light of the reductions in sales. Government taxes. Despite all the credit that Trump deserved for one of these events or whatever difference these $ 1000 bonuses make in people's lives, Trump saw an opportunity to demonstrate real and tangible progress for real people

He now lives on the other side of this anecdotal piece. And now that the real and tangible does not seem so good, it is unleashed. Trump fought back at Harley Davidson for his announcement and even threatened to impose it. The message to other companies seems to be clear: do not tell people that my rates are to blame for your bad economic news. I will punish you.

Added to this is the fact that Trump does not apply its rates to a struggling economy, but to one that has followed a solid trajectory for years – and has recently seen the unemployment rate rise below 4 percent. Given that we are close to what is traditionally considered full employment, and that the stock market has shown in recent months that corrections may be in reserve, moments like now are not ideal for politically boating. speaking. Changing things right now has a lot more risk of reversing current progress than the potential credit for keeping that progress.

And this and other polls, at the very least, suggest that there is skepticism about Trump's approach. That does not mean that it will be an electoral failure in November; it simply means that it is probably an unnecessary risk – and a risk for a president who judges himself so often by anecdote.

– Washington Post