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MONIQUE FORD / STUFF
James Shaw, Minister of Climate Change, explains his Zero Carbon Act.
ANALYSIS: Will the zero carbon bill save us? The short answer is no.
New Zealand contributes about 0.17% of the world's total emissions. Nothing we do alone will stop climate change and all the devastation that it will entail.
But the government hopes that New Zealand will not act alone. The zero carbon bill – on which the government is currently working – would allow New Zealand to meet its international obligations under the Paris Agreement.
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The changes we will see by 2050 will be difficult to stop now. But what happens in 2100 is far from being etched in the marble.
As the Minister of Climate Change, James Shaw, points out, countries of our size account for 30% of global emissions. We will all need to play our part
WHAT HAPPENS BY 2050
The three options on the table in the Zero Carbon Bill define 2050 as our end point.
READ MORE: But even though the world is following its goals, the difference between now and 2050 will not be very apparent, said James Renwick, climate scientist at the University of Michigan. 39, University of Victoria.
Warming up at this point is already underway and will be almost impossible to stop.
ANDY JACKSON / STUFF
The world continues on its current trajectory The sea level could rise by more than a meter by 2100.
"Talking about decennial averages in 30 years – we would look at a few tenths of a degree [of warming] – it does not look like much but it's actually huge, "said Renwick
" We as an otice people, but plants and animals – the natural world will really feel it.We would see quite significant changes in the capacity of crops or plants to grow in some parts of the country.There would be an increase in droughts and heavy rains. "
" We had a sea level rise of about 20 cm in New Zealand over the last 100 years, we will come back to it at least as much. here 2050. "
James Renwick of Victoria University
Renwick noted that sea level had a certain level of inertia – the changes we are making now may not be apparent for a long time. WHAT HAPPENS IN 2100
In the second half of the century, differences in what Renwick calls the "do good" scenario and the "do nothing" approach become obvious. In general terms, it would be the difference between 0.5 ° C and 1 ° C of the average warming and 3 ° C and 4 ° C.
"In the" do-well "scenario, we would still have half a meter of seal rise. for the coastal communities of New Zealand. "
" The amount of drought in places like Canterbury and Hawkes Bay would have doubled, roughly speaking. "
" It could get too hot during the nights and in the winter to grow kiwis in Hawke's Bay. "
It would be essentially an intensification of some changes that we are already seeing – a
And that's all if the world works together to reduce its emissions.
If we stay on the path where we are and do not try to achieve these goals Renwick said the changes were difficult "There would be at least a meter of sea level rise – to two meters maximum," says Renwick, meaning that many storms would send water well beyond where it is now. 19659006] "This warming would put New Zealand's climate in a place where it does not not been for millions of years. It's hard to say exactly what it would mean for ecosystems, "Renwick said.
" Most native species would probably disappear. "
" Around the world, people would be dislocated by rising sea levels. We could have hundreds of thousands of migrants wanting to come from the Pacific. The impact on national security would be enormous.
Climate change would affect almost all of our lives, overwhelming all other political problems, said Renwick.
"This only makes the situation worse.
– Stuff
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