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On the one hand, it makes sense that the playoff rematch looks like the result of the regular season. There is usually a reason why one team beats another. It doesn’t magically disappear in the playoffs.
Since 2002, when the NFL began its current divisional format, teams that have won a regular-season game have been 63-44 in the playoff rematch according to the Washington Post. In the championship round, there have been nine regular-season rematch in the past seven seasons and the regular-season winning team is 7-2 in the rematch according to CBS.
Both conference championship games this season are regular season rematch. The two regular season games weren’t pretty. In Week 6, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Green Bay Packers 38-10. A day later, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills 26-17 in a game the reigning champions controlled from start to finish.
But, does a result in mid-October carry so much weight in January?
“When you get to that time of year, it really doesn’t matter,” said Packers coach Matt LaFleur.
“Anytime you’re beaten 38-10 it’s hard to say it’s not as bad as it looked. They were more prepared to play than our group. You are still learning. I think our team has come a long way since that day. , but it’s all just words at this point. “
The Bills and Packers certainly hope the first meetings don’t matter.
Here are the picks for conference championship matches, along with BetMGM’s lines:
Packers (-3.5) on Buccaneers
The Buccaneers put in a good defensive performance. But so were the Los Angeles Rams last week.
The Rams had the best defense in the NFL during the regular season and the Packers set them on fire. Green Bay had 484 yards and won 32-18. Aaron Rodgers is currently the hottest quarterback in the NFL. He’s hard to measure up against, especially since he and the Packers have been waiting for the opportunity to host an NFC Championship game for many years.
But what to do with this first unbalanced encounter? Counting last season, when the Packers lost 37-8 to the San Francisco 49ers in the regular season and then lost again in the NFC title rematch, teams that win by at least 20 in the regular season are 9-1 in the conference championship. rematch during the Super Bowl era, according to Football Perspective.
After the 38-10 Bucs regular-season win, Tampa Bay linebacker Devin White said the Packers “didn’t deserve to be on the court with us.” LaFleur had to agree.
“You know, hey, he was right. They whipped us, ”LaFleur said this week.
“I think they really hit us, got us a little out of step with the pace. It’s definitely a hell of a good defense. They have star players in all areas. They play a very fast and aggressive type pattern. can bring several different pressures. “
Despite the first encounter and the story, I agree with LaFleur that the Packers have come a long way. Their offense is a machine right now. It’s going to be in the 1920s and it’s probably snowing in Green Bay, which isn’t great for the Florida team. Rodgers has been an excellent cold weather quarterback throughout his career.
The Packers have been waiting for an opportunity like this for a long time, and they will take advantage of it.
Bills (+3) on heads
Go 2 for 2 for ignoring what happened in the regular season game.
The Chiefs’ 26-17 victory wasn’t even that close. Kansas City ran the ball at will and edged the Bills 466-206. Patrick Mahomes pitched just 26 times, but completed 21 for 225 yards and two touchdowns.
Bills are much better now. Josh Allen was not very healthy the first time he met. He injured his left shoulder on October 4 and it ended up being his worst month of a great season. He was bad against the Chiefs, and that didn’t keep up with what happened the rest of the season. The Bills’ defense suffered key linebacker injuries, which put Kansas City in control of the game on the field.
Regardless of what happened in this game, the bills have improved. A lot.
Buffalo was arguably the best team in the NFL in the second half of the season. Most informal analysis will talk about how unbeatable the Chiefs are, but it’s the Bills who have dominated opponents for the past two months. The Bills have won nine of their last 10 playoff games, and eight of those wins have been in double digits. The Chiefs haven’t won by more than 6 points since Nov. 1. They haven’t covered the gap since either.
And of course, there’s the Patrick Mahomes factor. Mahomes is in concussion protocol and while all signs are that he will play on Sunday, there will be some nervousness before he is eliminated. It’s very hard to believe the Chiefs can beat a scorched Bills team if Chad Henne starts as a quarterback. Mahomes is also suffering from a foot injury and maybe it’s affecting him a bit. Against the Chiefs’ fantastic attack, any advantage helps.
It’s fair to look back on the first meeting and think the bosses will roll again. They defend the Super Bowl champions and have narrow wins or not, they are 15-1 with Mahomes as of this season counting last week’s win. But the Bills have been the most dominant team for some time now. We might see an upheaval even if Mahomes is playing.
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