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In the free world that follows American football, former Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray will be the number one choice in the NFL draft in 2019. The fictitious database of SB Nation contains 97 models and Currently, 92% of them send Murray to the Arizona Cardinals. SB Nation is in the process of revising a blogger model project, and our Cardinals blog has chosen Murray.
It is increasingly difficult to find conflicting opinions, and this results in betting odds for the first choice. On March 5th, the Westgate SuperBook began publishing ratings on the first choice. They placed Murray in the 5-7 spot, followed by Nick Bosa at 5-4, defenseman Alabama Quinnen Williams at 7-1 and Josh Allen at 8-1.
In the four weeks that followed, Murray's chances improved considerably. His chances improved to 4-9 on March 11, then 1-5 a week later, and more recently to 1-14 on April 5th. Meanwhile, Bosa dropped from 5-4 to 5-2 and now to 9-2 in April. 1. Williams went from 7-1 to 16-1. The SuperBook is trying to remove any value from the bets on Murray, and at this point, there is no reason to bet on him. A score of 1-16 means that if you bet $ 16 on Murray and you are # 1, you will win $ 1 if that happens.
In many cases where the probabilities are so clear, it can still act relatively easy money (although not important). In the case of the NFL 2019 project and the Arizona Cardinals, I'm not sure it's all the free money that people could think of.
We've heard a lot about Kliff Kingsbury's love for Kyler Murray, but the team still has the 2018 first round pick, Josh Rosen, on the list. By all accounts, they received calls about Rosen, but did not proactively search for offers. In addition, the team reports its low season training schedule on Monday, April 8 and Rosen should be present.
None of this means that the Cardinals will stay with Rosen, but Murray's chances are far too short with this type of uncertainty. And that means your best bet is to disappear Murray. Bosa and Williams have always been considered the top five picks and, before Murray emerged, they both managed to climb to the top spot. You can argue for both players, but Bosa seems to me to be the best bet for Murray's fading. However, if you bet equal sums on Bosa and Williams, you are sure to make a profit if one or the other becomes # 1.
The biggest joker that the Cardinals exchanging Rosen is the Cardinals swapping the No. 1 pick with another team looking for a quarterback. The Giants of New York, among others, were connected to Dwayne Haskins of the State of Ohio. It seems unlikely that Haskins will reach such a high level, but someone could be comfortable with Murray's choice. If that's a problem, waiting a few weeks will probably cost you nothing, and you'll know if the cardinals could handle it.
In the meantime, think for a long time before investing a few dollars in Bosa and / or Williams as a first choice. We have reached the point where Murray has virtually no value as a betting option, so why not clear the market?
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