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It’s official, we have our NFL “final four”. It will be the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game next weekend. As for last weekend from a gaming standpoint, it looked like the books were heading early for a horrible weekend. Saturday’s two favorites covered, but Sunday saw the exact opposite, as both underdogs covered the spread. Heading into the Championship weekend, the favorites are 4-6 in the playoffs.
If you are an experienced bettor, you know that it is best to start your bets early before the lines can know what could be a potentially unfavorable move. We’ve already seen some movement since these lines were posted shortly after the matches were established, so let’s take a look at those early odds and see our picks.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Buccaneers at Packers
Opening line: Packers -3.5
Total: O / U 51
Green Bay will host the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2007, which was Brett Favre’s last game as a Packer. The Packers had no problem with the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round, beating them 32-18. Aaron Rodgers and offense ripped apart the Rams’ top-ranked defense as they racked up 484 total rushing yards and 28 first downs. These two numbers are the most allowed by the Rams in an all-season game. Davante Adams caught nine passes for 66 yards and a touchdown, but it was actually Allen Lazard who was the main catcher for the game. He caught four passes for 96 yards, including a score of 58 that put the game on ice. While the Green Bay defense kept Los Angeles to just 244 yards of total attacking, the secondary was at times irregular. Josh Reynolds, Robert Woods and Van Jefferson all managed to find open space against the Packers’ cornerbacks, which is something to watch out for.
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers didn’t get much production from their wide receivers against the New Orleans Saints in the divisional round, but they were able to escape with a 30-20 victory nonetheless. Brady threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns, while Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones combined for 125 rushing yards. However, it was the defense that dominated the day as the Buccaneers held Drew Brees to just 134 passing yards, pushed him back three times and forced four turnovers in total. Devin White has proven himself to be one of the best linebackers in the league, posting a record 11 tackles, recovering a fumble and catching an interception, which he returned the other way around for 28 yards. Brady was able to avoid going 0-3 against Brees and the Saints this season, and he further cemented his place in NFL history. This will be Brady’s ninth conference championship appearance in the past 10 years, and his NFL record 14th overall in his 21-year NFL career. To put that into perspective, Brady has more conference championship wins than any other quarterback has appearances!
The choice: These two teams met in Week 6 when the Packers were sent off, 38-10, in Tampa. It was Green Bay’s worst loss of the season. What’s interesting is that the Packers ‘game and the Buccaneers’ game this past weekend totaled exactly 50 points. Give me the end and I’ll take the Packers to cover 3.5 points as well.
Bills to Chiefs
Opening line: Heads -3
Total: O / U 54
The last time the Bills and Chiefs met in the playoffs was in the AFC championship game in 1993. The Bills won 30-13 en route to their fourth straight Super Bowl appearance. With the Chiefs’ 22-17 victory over the Cleveland Browns this Sunday, Kansas City will become the first team since the 2002-04 Philadelphia Eagles to host three consecutive conference championship games. Andy Reid coached both of these teams! Chad Henne was forced to finish the game after Patrick Mahomes left with a concussion, and he made do with some clutch play. Still, everyone is hoping Mahomes can accomplish whatever he needs this week to prepare for the conference championship game. One interesting statistic to know when entering this game is that the Chiefs have now played nine straight games without winning more than six points. As of Week 9, they are 1-8 ATS.
For the first time since 1993, the Bills are in the AFC Championship game. They beat the Baltimore Ravens in a low scoring affair, and it was actually the defense that shone. Buffalo held Baltimore to just three points and Taron Johnson’s 101-yard pick was what Josh Allen called a “franchise-changing game.” The Bills have now won eight straight games – seven of them in double digits – and have a +136 point differential during that time. However, Allen and Stefon Diggs will have to put together a huge game if they are to defeat this explosive team of Chiefs.
The choice: These two teams also met in the regular season in Week 6, as the Chiefs beat the Bills, 26-17. Mahomes’ injury and how weird it was gives me pause, but if you force me to pick a side now, I’m going to go ahead and take the Chiefs to cover. I’ve posted a weekly NFL playoff support update since the playoffs started, and my choice of Packers-Chiefs in the Super Bowl hasn’t changed. As for the total, I lean towards the Under.
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