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Few thought the Los Angeles Rams or the Cleveland Browns would get this far, and the Buffalo Bills have been far more successful than you might expect. The Baltimore Ravens have returned to contention, two quarantine quarterbacks will face off in New Orleans, and everyone is (or should be) afraid of the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The wheat has been separated from the tares, and the divisional cycle will reduce it further.
Here’s a look at this weekend’s NFL playoff games. Unlike in the regular season, picks are not made against the point spread.
Saturday games
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers, 4:35 p.m. Fox
Line: Packers -6.5 | Total: 45.5
Much will be said about the relationship between coach Sean McVay of the Rams and coach Matt LaFleur of the Packers. LaFleur was McVay’s offensive coordinator in 2017, and they were entire offensive assistants on the Washington staff from 2010 to 2013. They are key figures in an offensive revolution, but if you’re hoping for a high-scoring affair , you might want to try a different one. Game.
Green Bay led the NFL in goals with a season-long throwback from Aaron Rodgers that puts him in the running for the Most Valuable Player award. His success came with the help of Aaron Jones’ run (1,459 scrum yards), the vertical threat of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (20.9 yards per reception) and the overall brilliance of Davante Adams (115 catches, 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns). ).
But if there’s one team designed to slow the Packers down, it’s the Rams.
Few defenses can match Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd’s relentless passing rush, and while Rodgers doesn’t get easily upset, the few times he’s shown weakness in recent years have come when he’s under constant pressure. Complicating matters is the absence of star left tackle David Bakhtiari, whose season ended with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in Week 16.
Jones could be neutralized by a Rams front seven that placed third in the NFL in run defense – yes, Donald leads there too. Green Bay relying on the threat of the home run of Valdes-Scantling is risky thanks to its propensity for lost passes.
That leaves the most intriguing game as the one between cornerback Jalen Ramsey and Adams, who can argue that the current NFL wide receiver is the best and most underrated.
“You know me, I would love to go against anyone and have as much good as possible,” Adams said this week when asked about Ramsey.
On neutral ground, and at equal health, this could lead to upheaval for the Rams. But Green Bay fought for the field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that hard work could be the team’s saving grace. It should be around 30 degrees at kickoff in Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Rams quarterback Jared Goff is just weeks away from thumb surgery on his throwing hand. He seemed to be struggling with his catch last week, and the cold, combined with a sufficiently good defense from the Packers, should give Green Bay all the edge they need. To choose: Packers
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo bills, 8:15 p.m., NBC
Line: Bills -2.5 | Total: 50
The Ravens haven’t lost a game since December 2. The Bills haven’t lost one since November 15. Both have weatherproof attacks and game-changing defenses. And both have overcome some psychological weight in the wild-card round – Buffalo earned its first playoff win since the 1995 season; Lamar Jackson of the Ravens won a playoff game for the first time.
There are a myriad of reasons to shoot for both teams – and a lingering belief that either team advancing is only signing to lose to Kansas City in the next round – but it’s hard to believe that Buffalo , even at home, could slow the race of the Baltimore juggernaut. Game.
When the Ravens hit the “reset button” after a mid-season lull, the team focused most of their offense on the run of quarterback Lamar Jackson and running backs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. This led to Baltimore throwing 230 or more yards in four of its last five regular season games, including a ridiculous 404 – the fifth fastest yards in NFL history – in a Week 17 win. against Cincinnati. This continued into the wilds round, with the Ravens running for 236 yards.
Buffalo has placed 17th in run defense this season, but that ranking would have been worse if the teams hadn’t been forced to pass to keep up with the Bills’ electric offense. This can be seen in the fact that Buffalo ranked among the six worst defenses in the NFL in yards per carry (4.6) and rushing touchdowns allowed (21).
The Bills defense has several players capable of serious disruption, but a lot of that comes in the secondary. On a cold day in Orchard Park, New York, the Ravens could focus on running the ball, and it’s hard to see the Bills being able to stop them. Buffalo’s offense can’t be counted, even against a solid defense from the Ravens, but Baltimore should control the clock and the game. To choose: Ravens
Sunday games
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 p.m., CBS
Line: Chiefs -10 | Total: 56.5
For all intents and purposes, Cleveland qualified for the divisional round after just over 13 minutes of their wildcard game against Pittsburgh. A playoff game has rarely gone sideways so quickly, with the Browns’ defense forcing three quick turnovers and their offense handling their end of the trade to take a 28-0 lead with 1 minute 56 seconds left in the first quarter.
The Browns’ 48-37 win shouldn’t be taken as a coincidence – Cleveland has its best team since coach Bill Belichick hiked the sideline in the mid-1990s – but profiting from Ben Roethlisberger’s mistakes is very different from to force Patrick Mahomes into some, so to expect a repeat of this super-fast start would be foolish.
Kansas City could recover running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire from a frightening hip injury in Week 15. Even if it doesn’t, a combination of Le’Veon Bell and Damien Williams provides enough balance. so Mahomes can tear Cleveland to pieces. secondary with deep passes to wide receiver Tyreek Hill and throws below to tight end Travis Kelce.
Cleveland’s offense has at times shown some explosion – last week’s effort was the franchise’s most significant postseason game since the 1954 NFL Championship – and the Browns can turn back time thanks to the great combination of running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. But even Baker Mayfield’s most ardent believers should find it difficult to bring him into a face-to-face with Mahomes. The Browns aren’t picky, but there’s probably not much they can do to stand in the way of Kansas City. To choose: Chefs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 6:40 p.m. Fox
Line: Saints -3 | Total: 52
The oldest starting quarterback in the AFC playoffs is Baker Mayfield, who turned 26 only in April. Three of the four starters in this conference were first-round picks in the 2018 draft. By the time one of four had started an NFL game, Tom Brady had already won five Super Bowls and Drew Brees was nearing the record. Dan Marino in terms of career passes.
The young players have largely redesigned the quarterback position, using their mobility to bolster their passes while contributing to an explosion in league-wide scores. Still, Brady and Brees, museum-quality examples of a forgotten age of pocket couriers, continue, leading some serious Super Bowl contenders in week two of the playoffs.
In truth, this game should not be defined only by its famous quarterbacks. Brees’s Saints have had plenty of offense this season – running back Alvin Kamara led the NFL with 21 total TDs – but relied just as much on defense, as Dennis Allen, the team’s defensive coordinator, has integrated into a power station.
Tampa Bay also has a talented young defense – support from that side of the ball no doubt played a part in Brady’s decision to sign there – and in recent weeks the Buccaneers have started to really click the attack. The team’s wealth of receiving options – receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown; Rob Gronkowski – propelled Brady to his best statistical season since at least 2017 and one of his career best.
The regular season games between these teams were laughable. The Saints won both, with a combined score of 72-26. And they play at home, which plays a role for them even if the impact is lessened by the small crowds the team is allowed to host. The Buccaneers are a good enough team to be respected – in many ways it feels like a draw – but the Saints are rightly the favorites in what could be the most competitive game of the weekend. To choose: Saints.
All hours are Eastern.
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