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The New England Patriots returned from the 64th overall pick in exchange for a pair of selections in the third and fourth innings. The first of these two choices was then invested in a Michigan defensive game, Chase Winovich.
77th overall: Chase Winovich, DE
The darling of Pro Football Focus, the man who has the best hair in the NFL (Clay Matthews) and the media proclamation of "the greatest personality of the project" will be a Patriot. I think this choice represents a stellar value for the team, although a common theme for this class involves some risks.
Grade: A-
What I like
Implacable. This is the first word I would use to describe Winovich. Its engine is consistent from the first second of the game to the last. As Lance Zierlein wrote for NFL.com, "he plays like he's got zombie blood pumping through his veins." speed to most of their shots. This will never be the case for Winovich, which is aggravated by the fact that he has great athletic abilities.
One of the other attributes that I like a lot at Winovich is his thirst for football development. He wants to be better at everything and is actively engaged to that end. He has made great progress with regard to his technique as a past two years pass in the university and I think that there is still plenty of room for growth. I refuse to believe that he will not grow as a player in the NFL. Winovich also looks forward to all the tasks he has entrusted, whatever their task. This is a big problem for a team that constantly changes their game plan week after week.
I also think his turn is solid enough for a player who has taken such depth in the draft and has the gift of knocking down the smuggler who becomes cute. He plays with an enraged speed, which, combined with his endless engine, is a powerful combination. PFF awarded Winovich elite pass defense, tied with Joey Bosa and Myles Garett. I do not think their ratings indicate such a professional elite player, but I think the top-of-the-line PFF scores have been decent in terms of the floor.
Provided he can overcome a major weakness, I do not think he has a high risk of failure. Personally, I think that Winovich meets a need of the team and presented a value superior to the 77th general choice. The best scenario is that it is a defensive end of Pro Bowl caliber in the Belichick mold.
What concerns me
Two years ago, the Patriots developed an extremely productive line of defense with elite athleticism and a first-round streak. He was selected at the top of the third round but several people thought he had a first-round value. He called Derek Rivers.
One of the biggest concerns I had about why Rivers might not be successful is the same as me for Winovich: he's small. As this-is-the-main-reason-he-has-fallen in the small project. The only significant difference between the two players is that Rivers was bigger than your average defender and Winovich has bigger hands. Apart from that, they are both lower than the 30th percentile.
You know how to adjust the weight of the scores of the big players? The same thing works for the smaller players. Winovich scores are not as impressive as if it had been done by a person in the 50th percentile by weight. You can not learn the size and Winovich will be at a disadvantage. He has been devoured by bigger challenges at the college level and I think he will also struggle to master it at the professional level. This is probably the main reason he was available at the top of the third.
I also do not think he's good at getting the advantage, he's certainly a victim of the mentality that drives the first in the pass and it will have to be guided out of him. Sometimes this manic speed of play also comes back to bite him when he gets punished in assists.
Another reason he gave up was his lack of bag production in college. In college, he got slender grades from PFF but PFF gives a low premium to the bags, which is why guys like Trey Flowers can be ranked before guys like Von Miller in their system. Winovich will never be a bag artist. I think that a big part of this has to do with its dullness that is dull, although it helps to compensate some with the speed with which it plays. That being said, the artists in the bag are not very relevant in the Belichick scheme. I think in the worst case, Winovich is Derek Rivers with better hair.
Final thoughts on the grade
My only concern is the size of Winovich. If it was not undersized, I would give this choice a clean, but that's one of the main reasons it was there when it was. I think his lack of explosiveness, though often crucial for defensive purposes, will be less relevant in a Belichick scheme that has a lot of productive EDs missing from this trait. He also compensates with a good engine and playing fast. He struggles to stand out but I am confident in Belichick's ability to coach him. I think the value in the third is excellent.
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