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Until here everything is fine on the NFL. The Packers covered, which was a surprising consensus selection for our expert NFL selections. If you watched Sportsline – every night at 6pm ET on CBS Sports HQ, our free streaming sports network, 24/7, which contains real sports news for real sports fans – you've managed to take the money at 46.5. It was a laugh riot on Thursday, as the Bears and Packers combined for 13 points in a game whose players complained so much about social media, because people are terrible.
Whatever the case may be, we wish this train to continue working during week 1 by identifying some better bets where we can hay. Every week at this location, I will be throwing about five choices that I like on the slate. If you need more, you can listen to me, Pete Prisco and R.J. Whites make choices against the spread for each part of the Pick Six podcast by pressing the game button below or subscribing here.
As a bonus, we will also offer you a weekly special PICK SIX PODCAST PARLAY, a name so exciting that it requires a complete cap. This is between 2 and 16 choices that Pete / R.J. / Brinson all agree against the spread. They do not have to be triple locked, but only games for which we all have a steep slope in one direction.
This choice is below with my best bets. Lemme know if you disagree and / or who you like this week screaming at me on Twitter @ WillBrinson.
Vikings (-4) against the hawks
My story of love with the Vikings this year is well documented. I choose them to win the Super Bowl and people are hot and upset by the suggestion on Twitter.
I agree with that. The NFL season is not going like everyone else would, otherwise what would be the point of showing up? The Falcons are certainly a formidable opponent in the first week, but I really like the Vikings there for various reasons. For starters, Minnesota has a big advantage on its court. They also have a great advantage as a coach. When you combine the two, the results are really impressive. As Kenny White of SportsLine noted on the Pick Six podcast during the pre-season, Mike Zimmer is 52-28 against the gap (65%) and 28-14 against the gap at home these last five years, good for a success rate of 67%. . It's ridiculous and we only get an extra point in the average number of benefits of the field. The Falcons were defeated last year, but they also ranked 30th in terms of DVOA anti-speed defense. Atlanta secretly (?) Has not been good at stopping the race under Dan Quinn. The Vikings offensive line has been improved and I think Dalvin Cook is ready for a big game this weekend. Zimmer is 4-1 in Week 1 games since being replaced by the Vikings and 4-1 against the spread of these games, including a pair of home wins against the 49ers and Saints over the last two seasons. years.
Titans (+5) at Browns
My biggest fear here is the offensive line for Tennessee, which will be short with Taylor Lewan in the first week thanks to the suspension of the left tailor. But Tennessee is a good team, an impressive team over the past two years, who has managed three consecutive seasons on a 9-7 record. There are several coaching teams out there, so for me, this indicates more of a solid list that is impressive but not dominant. There is no flash for both Titans and Browns. And I understand why people are everywhere in Cleveland (66% of the bets are made on the Browns by Action Network). They are fun, they have Odell Beckham and Baker Mayfield and they are able to win the Super Bowl. I understood! But they will not go out and, um, demolish this league. The Titans are a legitimate team with a pair of talented halfbacks to Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis and a quarterback to Marcus Mariota who is trying to prove himself in a contract year while Ryan Tannehill is blowing his neck. More importantly, I would worry about Baker's protection with Harold Landry, Cameron Wake (ageless!) And Jurell Casey, able to put pressure on the second-year quarterback. I do not envision a monster shootout, I would actually like the Titans to win a total victory and be happy to take more than one field placement at that location.
Panthers (+2) vs Rams
Full Disclosure: I got it at +3 and, even though I still like it at +2, taking it and losing the very large three-point number causes concern. However, I still believe the Panthers have won this game, so get started if you're so inclined. Why do I feel like this? Well, for starters, this is a party at 10 am ET for the Rams, who are traveling from the west coast to the east coast. I do not think this is a factor as important as before, but timing is important for NFL players. In addition, I think the Panthers are undervalued. Carolina was 60 to win the Super Bowl a few weeks ago, before falling into the 30-1 range. Cam Newton has just undergone an operation on the shoulder and suffered a foot injury in the pre-season, but all systems work. Carolina can mitigate the greatest strength of the Rams defense (Aaron Donald) using quick passes for Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. The defensive front of the Panthers can attack a new Rams offensive line that will probably not be fully synchronized without playing pre-season games. I need to see Todd Gurley healthy and loose before I believe him. It's sure to be a close match, but like last year against the Cowboys, the Panthers will take care of home affairs in the first week.
Jaguars (+3) vs leaders
This line STINKS. An occasional fan of the NFL who enters a sports book will see "Patrick Mahomes against a team of crappy jaguars and he only has to win by three points?" and hammer the leaders. The action network has them at 72% of the bets. The chefs are a public team and it's a juicy line. However, the Jaguars are an improved team in attack and a team hungry in defense. Jalen Ramsey should go out with his hair on fire while he launches a contract campaign and that Josh Allen wrote DROY on him. He is missing pieces (Telvin Smith for one), but Jacksonville wants to prove that 2017 has not been a fluke for his defense and that the match starts with the biggest test of all in the NFL. In practice, they actually limited Mahomes last year, forcing him to adopt a line 22/38, 313, 0/2 which is rather generous in terms of distance. This game is not an eruption if Blake Bortles does not launch four choices and now Nick Foles is in town. At the very least, he should be safer with football. Leonard Fournette could have a monster match this week, showing himself fit and clearly in a better mental state. I think that they can hold on and smash records against a Chiefs defense that could be better but that is not good. The jags remove the surprise here.
Colts (+6.5) at Chargers
Full Disclosure 2.0: I supported the Chargers -3 when Andrew Luck's retirement news was published, creating a nice window here. If I walked in this blind, I would still take the Colts for a number of reasons. For starters, Jacoby Brissett is just better than people think. He does not come as a guy like in 2017, he spent several years in Frank Reich's system. The Patriots nominated him in the third round on the advice of Bill Parcells. The guy has a pedigree. And now, he has a better offensive line, a better racing game (I'm a Marlon Mack corrector) and sound pass weapons. Chargers are being abused. Derwin James is gone and Russell Okung is missing. These are big factors. Anthony Lynn's team shook the label "slow starter" last year, but it will not be a raucous crowd of Chargers who will be eager to defeat the Colts. I think we're seeing Indy come in and shock the world with a win against the Bolts.
Parlay Podcast Bonus
Every week when Prisco, R.J. and I agree on a number of choices, we will put them in the Pick Six Parlay. This week, they are all outsiders. I would suggest – if only because you do not want to miss the cash when cash – put a unit on the positives and a half-unit on the line of credit (which yields 65-1).
+3 – Dogfight Bills of a division game with two young stud quarterbacks, but we support Sean McDermott with a defensive advantage and coach.
Dolphins +6,5 – YIKES. The one who scares for the purpose of ML here. It's just too many points in a game that should be a slugfest and could feature the Ravens in tough conditions. That's why you do not go too far with the ML.
Jaguars +3 – See above.
Titans +5 – See above again.
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