NJ Weather: A winter storm watch issued, with heavy snowfall, 50mph winds expected in latest forecast

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch ahead of the impending coastal storm which is expected to bring more than half a foot of snow to parts of New Jersey and generate wind gusts as strong as 50 mph along the New Jersey coast.

The watch – which isn’t as urgent as a warning – essentially warns the state that there is a high likelihood of snow accumulation and hazardous conditions over the next 48 to 72 hours.

As of late Friday afternoon, 10 counties are included in the winter storm watch: Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and Salem. The day before is effective at 10 a.m. Sunday in Cumberland and Salem, and at 4 p.m. Sunday in other counties, until 1 a.m. Tuesday in each region.

In addition to the heavy snowfall – with accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible in parts of central and western New Jersey, and some pockets of 8 to 12 inches – the weather service says winds could reach gusty 40 to 50 mph in coastal areas. , “Creating significant snow blast and drift.”

“Travel could be very difficult,” notes the weather service storm watch. “Dangerous conditions could have an impact on the Monday evening trip.”

Based on the latest computer guidance models, forecasters expect light snow to start falling on Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon, starting from west to east, and until late Monday or early. Tuesday.

“A period of winter mixing or rain could occur Sunday evening and Monday morning, especially along and near the coast, before returning to snow on Monday afternoon,” the weather service said in its storm watch. “The highest snowfall rates are most likely to occur late Monday.”

Earlier Friday afternoon, forecasters said big questions remained about the storm’s path. The track is one of the biggest keys to determining how much snow, rain, or mixed precipitation will fall in each region of New Jersey and neighboring states.

“There is still a lot of uncertainty with this storm system,” said Sarah Johnson, forecaster with the National Weather Service’s regional forecasting office in Mount Holly.

Johnson said the latest computer guidance models hinted that the storm – a low-pressure system in the middle of the atmosphere that was dumping huge amounts of snow in the western United States – could take a further course. south by moving across the country. .

If it stays on that southern trail it will push the snow / rain separation line further south which would promote lighter snow in northern Jersey and more snow in central and southwestern New Jersey. To complicate the job of forecasters, one must try to determine where the heaviest pockets of snow will settle, Johnson noted.

Additionally, it is not yet clear how much sleet and rain will mix with the snow in southern Jersey and along the eastern coastal areas.

Forecasters are also worried about the threat of moderate flooding in the state’s coastal areas, as the storm could intensify over the Atlantic Ocean and push large volumes of water over land, especially during the storms. high tide cycles Monday and Tuesday.

A forecast map issued by meteorologists at NBC4 in New York requests up to 8 to 12 inches of snow over a large swath of Monmouth and Ocean counties and further south, 5 to 8 inches of snow along the I-95 corridor in central New Jersey and 3 to 5 inches in much of North Jersey.

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Len Melisurgo can be reached at [email protected].