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The winter storm that is expected to bring at least 6 to 8 inches of snow over much of New Jersey will start before dawn Thursday and could persist Friday afternoon, according to the latest forecast.
According to Jim Sullivan, chief meteorologist for WeatherWorks, a private forecasting company based in Hackettstown, light snow could start as early as 4 or 5 a.m., with more regular snow falling at 7 or 8 a.m. Snow is expected to fall heavily in southern Jersey at 8 or 9 a.m., while in northern Jersey, moderate to heavy snow is expected to accumulate no later than 10 or 11 a.m., Sullivan said.
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The National Weather Service’s forecast released in its morning forecast discussion matches Sullivan’s, with the NWS indicating that precipitation will begin in the “hours before dawn.”
The National Weather Service is requesting up to 8 inches of snow from a storm beginning Thursday and continuing through Friday. Here is the latest information on timing.
Although the storm will spread across the state from the southwest to the northeast, Sullivan said the snow could actually start in northern Jersey first.
“It might be a little weird – it might fill up in the northern half a little earlier than in the southern half. It’s not really a uniform (snow) shield, ”Sullivan said.
Snow totals in southern Jersey are expected to be lower – around 3 to 4 inches compared to 6 to 8 in northern and central Jersey, according to the National Weather Service.
Indeed, snow in southern Jersey and along the Jersey Shore could turn into mixed precipitation fairly quickly, with warmer temperatures expected.
“Some mixing can start as early as late in the morning, and in the interior parts of southern Jersey there could be sleet around noon,” Sullivan said. “Over there, you might only have a few hours of heavy snowfall before the mixed precipitation sets in.”
This graph shows the expected start time of the winter storm that will affect the New Jersey area on Thursday, February 18 (updated Wednesday afternoon)National Meteorological Service
Mixed precipitation will begin by mid to late afternoon further north with the heaviest precipitation diminishing in intensity from 4:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. south to north.
The storm, however, will still be far from over – with precipitation not slowing down until 9 a.m. and noon on Friday and persistent light rains or snow showers possible throughout the afternoon.
“It’s not going to stop, but it will get a lot lighter later tomorrow,” Sullivan said. “The end time is still not clear.”
AccuWeather calls for higher amounts of up to 12 inches of snow in the northern half of the state, as well as a narrow 3 to 6 inch strip along I-195 and 1 to 3 inches for South Jersey .
AccuWeather’s forecast for the winter storm is expected to start Thursday with a 6 to 12 inch forecast for the northern half of New Jersey.
The National Weather Service issued a winter storm watch for 17 New Jersey counties ahead of a storm. These will likely be upgraded to winter storm warnings as the system nears the state and the forecast becomes more refined.
Only the oceans, the Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and coastal areas of Monmouth County are not under winter storm watch.
Jeff Goldman can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on twitter @JGoldmanNJ.
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