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SEOUL – The signals are confusing. One day, North Korea raises hopes of dialogue with South Korea, and the next day, it fires missiles or shows the last weapons of its nuclear arsenal.
In the past week alone, North has suggested the possibility of inter-Korean summit talks and said he will reopen direct lines of communication with his neighbor. It also fired long-range cruise missiles, launched what it called its first hypersonic missile, and on Thursday tested a new anti-aircraft missile. Earlier in September, he launched ballistic missiles from a train emerging from a mountain tunnel, the same day he called Southern President Moon Jae-in “stupid.”
Once again, North Korea is turning to a well-established two-pronged strategy designed to allow it to show its military muscle without risking retaliation or reducing the chances of dialogue.
In the absence of talks with Washington, the missile tests have reminded the world that North Korea is developing increasingly sophisticated weapons capable of carrying nuclear warheads. But individually, these short-range or still under development missiles do not pose a direct threat to the United States.
And North Korea was careful not to go too far, refraining from testing a nuclear device or intercontinental ballistic missile, which would push Washington to act with new sanctions or worse.
“North Korea is careful not to cross the red line,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the Seoul University of North Korean Studies. “Amidst all of this missile testing, North Korea is signaling that it is interested in dialogue.”
North Korea is now deploying this strategy at a complex diplomatic time. Moon is keen to see dialogue resumed on the Korean Peninsula, a last-ditch effort to cement his legacy before he leaves office in May. The Biden administration, however, is not as keen on engaging the North.
Kim Jong-un, the leader of the North, now finds himself in a position to exploit this rift between the two allies.
He met then-President Donald J. Trump three times between 2018 and 2019, becoming the first North Korean leader to hold a summit with a sitting US president. But his diplomatic efforts failed to lift the crippling sanctions the United Nations imposed on his impoverished country after its nuclear and ICBM tests. Soon the pandemic struck, further crippling the economy of the North.
US and South Korean officials had hoped that the deepening economic turmoil in the North, caused by the double whammy of sanctions and the pandemic, would make North Korea more open to dialogue.
So far, Mr. Kim has proven them wrong.
Since the failure of his talks with Mr. Trump in early 2019, he has pledged to overcome economic difficulties while developing his nuclear arsenal, his country’s best diplomatic lever and a deterrent against what he sees as an American threat to overthrow its government. By demonstrating his country’s growing military capabilities, Kim has also sought to legitimize his rule at a time when he has been unable to contribute little on the economic front to his long-suffering people.
Thursday’s anti-aircraft missile test indicated that the North was building a weapon similar to the Russian S-400, one of the most powerful air defense systems in the world, according to Kim Dong-yub, a North Korean weapons expert in the United States. University of North Korean Studies.
The Biden administration has repeatedly urged North Korea to resume talks without preconditions. But Mr Kim said he would not resume negotiations until he was convinced Washington was ready to ease sanctions and its “policy of hostility,” including the annual joint military exercises it conducts with Korea. from South.
In his discussions with Mr. Trump, Mr. Kim also made it clear that he was more interested in talks on nuclear weapon reduction than in full denuclearization. He proposed a partial dismantling of his country’s nuclear facilities if Washington lifted the sanctions. Mr. Trump rejected the offer.
“The United States is touting ‘diplomatic engagement’ and ‘dialogue without preconditions’,” Kim told North Korea’s legislature on Wednesday. “But this is just a little trick to deceive the international community and hide its hostile acts.”
“North Korea is not interested in denuclearization talks to receive benefits for complying with UN resolutions,” said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul . “It seeks to rewrite the rules and to be compensated for the restraint as a nuclear power.”
All of this leaves the Biden administration in a difficult negotiating position. Washington is reluctant to engage the North if the country is only going to use dialogue to ease sanctions without giving up its nuclear weapons. But not getting involved also means wasting opportunities to curb the development by the North of its arsenal. It also risks triggering an arms race in the region.
Mr Kim can’t really attempt shocking provocations like the ones he conducted in 2017 – three ICBM tests and one nuclear test – that brought the Trump administration to the table. Such tests would sharply increase tensions, call for more UN sanctions and potentially invoke China’s wrath by ruining the mood for the Beijing Winter Olympics in February.
The question for Kim, analysts say, is therefore how to force Washington to resume dialogue on its terms without angering North Korea’s traditional allies, China and Russia, which it needs to survive. to UN sanctions and rebuild its economy.
Ultimately, Mr. Moon’s government may provide the most promising answer for Mr. Kim.
Moon is desperate to get his Korean Peninsula peace process, his signature foreign policy, back on track before his single five-year term ends in May.
“It is the fate of our government” to continue the dialogue with the North, Moon told reporters last week, referring to his efforts to build peace through his three meetings with Kim in 2018 and his efforts to help organize the summit meetings between Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump.
This week, Kim also made conciliatory remarks towards South Korea.
“We have no objective or reason to provoke South Korea and no idea of harming it,” he said.
North Korea was courting South Korea while avoiding talks with Washington, said Cheong Seong-chang, director of the North Korean Studies Center at the Sejong Institute in South Korea. Other analysts have said North Korea is relying on South Korea to help bring Washington to dialogue.
On Thursday, Sung Kim, the United States’ special representative for North Korea, met with his counterparts from Japan and South Korea and said Washington would support humanitarian aid to North Korea as an incentive for dialogue.
The analysis doubted that this was enough.
“I’m not sure the old way of providing humanitarian shipments as an incentive will work this time around, given the North’s reluctance to accept outside aid during the pandemic,” University Professor Yang said. North Korean studies. “North Korea wants the United States to address more fundamental issues regarding its well-being. He wants clearer commitments from the United States to ease sanctions and ensure his security. “
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