See tougher competition in major salmon markets

In the first half of 2018, 556 000 tonnes of salmon, converted to live weight, were exported for a value of 32.6 billion NOK. Volume grew by 7%, while value increased by 4%, or 1.1 billion, compared to the first half of 2017. In particular, the second quarter was very strong with 10% growth and a decline of 2% in the first quarter.

– Several factors have contributed positively to this record up to now in 2018. Currency is one of them. The Norwegian krona depreciated by an average of five per cent against the euro, but against the US dollar, the krona rose by about seven per cent. Paul T. Aandahl, an analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council in a press release, explains that the EU buys two-thirds of Norwegian salmon, which explains why it is relatively more favorable to export to the euro markets only in dollar markets.

"Volume and price changed a lot in the first half of 2006. In terms of volume, there was strong growth in January and June, which led to a lower price than in the first half of the year. loss of market share despite volume growth

Although Norway is increasing in volume in the first half of the year, estimates of exports from other salmon stations indicate that Norway is losing market shares in total and in While Norway is increasing its volume by 7 per cent, global trade growth is expected to increase by 13 per cent.The value of world trade, converted into euros, is down 2 per cent from the previous year. same period last year. Converted to US dollars, growth is 10%

– Assuming that half of the trade goes to the euro markets and the rest in dollars, the value is d & # 39; About 4% According to Aandahl, the Chil i is the country with the highest growth in export volume, with an estimated increase of 35 or 80,000 tonnes.

Export statistics show an increase of 8,000 tonnes from Canada and the United Kingdom. exports of 14 000 tonnes.

Takes market share in the EU

The EU is the most important region of Norway for Norwegian salmon exports. During the first half of the year, 361 000 tonnes of salmon were exported for a value of NOK 24 billion for the EU market. This represents an increase of 13% in volume and 9% in value compared to last year. The largest emerging markets for Norway in the EU region are the United Kingdom, France and Poland.

– The favorable motto is the engine of this development. Another factor is the EU's own production, estimated at around 10 000 tonnes. The reduction in supply from the Faroe Islands goes in the same direction, this volume being estimated at around 5,000 tonnes. Although Chile is increasing the supply of about 3,000 tons, the sum will be negative, so Norway has reduced competition in the European market. "Aandahl

Estimates of the value measured in euro show no overall growth for the EU in the first half of 2006. This indicates that the growth in demand observed over the last 15 years in terms of imports into the EU EU is about to stop

– Overall, we are seeing growth in freshwater consumption, while frozen salmon and smoked salmon are coming back. an indication that a greater proportion of salmon consumption occurs outside the EU home, says Aandahl.

Staying away from growth in Russia [19659004] Exports to Eastern Europe also increased.In the first half of the year, Norway exported to Eastern Europe 17,000 tonnes of salmon worth 770 million kroner, an increase of 10 percent in volume and 7 percent Turkey after several years of low consumption. Historically, Asia and Eastern Europe were about the same, but after the expulsion from the Russian market, Eastern Europe now represents About 16% of the Asian export market in Norway. "

has risen sharply in Eastern Europe.

– The supply has increased by about 53%. According to Aandahl, the strongest growth is that of Chile with 89% and that of the Faroe Islands between 59 and 17 000.

In the first half of the year, 76 000 tonnes of Norwegian salmon were exported to Asia, 8 per cent over the same period last year. Exports was 5.4 billion Norwegian kroner, down 11% in 2017.

– The weakness of currencies could be one of the reasons for the weakness of Norwegian exports to Asia. Another explanation may be the lack of fish in the right size.China and other markets in the region have a strong preference for large fish.A situation of difficult loss in recent years has sometimes led farmers to cut down the fish instead of treating it Aandahl adds:

– nt the statistics available until May of Seafood Norway and compares with the first half of last year, it is difficult to find support for such a hypothesis. The average carcass mass was lower in March and April, while the other months had higher carcass weights than the previous year

However, competition between salmon supplier Asia rose sharply in 2018.

Asia 18 percent. Most of this growth appears to come from Chile (+ 67%), but Canada also seems to have enjoyed good growth in exports (+ 489%) and the Faroe Islands (+ 56%). Exports from the United Kingdom to Asia are about stable. Measured in US dollars, the global value added to Asia has increased by about 15%.

– In direct exports, the Norwegian salmon market share to Asia was reduced from 60 to 46% in the first half of the year. Although Norway is the largest salmon supplier to Asia, we see that Norway's position as a fresh salmon supplier is still in question. Chile now provides fresh salmon to China and Israel, says Aandahl

Chile's return to North America

In the first half of Norway, Norway exported 26,000 tonnes of salmon to North America North. There is a 3 percent drop in volume and a 10 percent drop in value over the same period last year.

– After the challenge with the proliferation of algae spring 2016, Chile returns to normal production. The United States is the most important market for Chile, and Chile is the largest supplier of the United States. The trade trend indicates a 30% increase from Chile to North America in the first half. Canada increases by 4% as European exports return. In total, direct exports to North America rose 10 percent in volume, while the value measured in USD rose 3 percent, Aandahl said.

Continued rise in the value of Norwegian exports in the second half of the year

balance of power as in the past year. This means helping the EU market to disappear while the "dollar markets" will increase compared to the first half. This, combined with stable production in Chile, allows Norway to strengthen its market share in the United States and Asia in the second half compared to the first half. With the disappearance of trade barriers with China, this trend will be reinforced, estimates Aandahl

Aandahl believes that even though Norwegian salmon is not often in direct competition with Chilean salmon, the long-term trend is clear :

rhythm between different origins and between markets. Strong growth in demand in Russia will eliminate Chilean and Faroese salmon from other markets. This offers opportunities for Norwegian salmon. Overall, I expect the growth in current value to continue. According to Aandahl, the Seafood Council's scenario model also indicates a 4% growth in value in the second half of the year.

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