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Oddsmakers had been contemplating what the line would be in an AFC Championship game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs for days. Still, on Sunday afternoon, after the game started, the opening line varied wildly, from Chiefs -4 to Bills -2.5, on sports betting around the world.
That’s what Patrick Mahomes’ injury did to the betting market, and it’s just the start.
By the end of Sunday night, the line had settled with the Chiefs as the 2.5-point favorites, with a few pounds at -3. He is unlikely to stay there.
Mahomes left the Chiefs’ 22-17 playoff victory over the Cleveland Browns in the second half with a concussion. His status for the AFC championship game was on hold until Monday. If he plays, the line will almost certainly increase. If he’s out, Buffalo could be favored and the Green Bay Packers could become Super Bowl favorites.
“If Mahomes were ruled out, the Bills would be a decent favorite,” John Murray, SuperBook executive director at Westgate Las Vegas, said Sunday night, noting that some of his punters were projecting a line as high as Buffalo -7 if saved. Chad Henne starts for the Chiefs in place of Mahomes. “It seems a little extreme to me, but it gives you an idea of how much down there is from Mahomes to Henne, in terms of the point distribution.”
Johnny Avello, director of sports betting for DraftKings, expected the Chiefs to remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but he knows the gap has narrowed significantly with Mahomes’ injury.
“They will still be the favorites, but it will be tightened up a bit,” said Avello.
On Sunday night, William Hill’s US sportsbook had the Chiefs at +200 to win the Super Bowl, followed the Packers at +225, Bills +300 and Buccaneers +400. But a lot could change this week.
In the meantime, here are the notable bets.
NFL
• On Sunday night, the Packers were consensus favorites by 4 points against the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game. The SuperBook opened Green Bay at -4.5 and quickly took money off the underdog Buccaneers, bringing the number to -4.
• In the AFC Championship game, most of the early bets were on the SuperBook Bills. “Although the biggest bet to date has been $ 20,000 on the Chiefs -3 (even),” Murray said. “The public love both of these teams, although the Chiefs continue to let punters down. They failed to cover yet again today.”
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the gap in eight of their last nine games.
• The late money appeared on the Browns ahead of kickoff Sunday. The line, which had been floating between Kansas City -10 and -9.5 all week, dropped to -7.5 before kickoff. The SuperBook reported taking some late cash on Cleveland, as the whole market moved towards the Browns underdogs.
“The difference between 7.5 and 9.5 is not that big,” said Avello of DrafKings. “I don’t know why this thing dropped. I can’t explain why they were taking nine, eight and a half and eight.”
At Circa Sports, a Las Vegas bookie known for serving the needs of professional bettors, there was more betting on Kansas City, but more money was being staked on Cleveland.
“All of the big bets that we continue to take are on the Browns,” Matt Metcalf, director of sports betting for Circa Sports in Las Vegas, told ESPN in a text message ahead of the game on Sunday. “Someone just took [Cleveland plus] 8 a lot a minute ago. “
• The Chiefs were leading 22-10 with just over 11 minutes left when Mahomes was officially sent off for the remainder of the game. Kansas City was a big favorite at the time, -900 to win the game outright. After a Browns touchdown reduced the lead to 22-17 and Mahomes was sent off, the live odds shifted to Chiefs -500.
• The most popular player proposition bet on the Browns-Chiefs game at New Jersey bookie Tipico was the under 260.5 on passing yards from Baker Mayfield, which accounted for 50% of the book’s action on player accessories.
• The Buccaneers-Saints game on Sunday was the most bet game of the weekend for several sportsbook.
• A bettor with PointsBet sportsbooks placed a bet of $ 5,400 per point on the -3.5 Bills against the Ravens. In this example, the point bet, commonly known as the points bet, was based on the number of points by which the Bills covered the spread. They covered the 11.5 point spread and the punter took home a clean $ 56,700.
• The Rams-Packers game on Saturday was billed as a “Pros vs.Joes” game by some. The Rams underdogs have drawn interest in early betting from professional bettors at +7. The line dropped to Green Bay -6.5 and stayed there for most of the week, despite some lopsided bets on the favorite Packers. At kickoff at PointsBet, 82% of bets and 89% of money staked were on Green Bay. The Packers won and covered the gap 32-18.
NBA
Nets favorites in Eastern Conference after trade tightens
After acquiring James Harden, the Brooklyn Nets moved past the Milwaukee Bucks and are now the favorites in the Eastern Conference. But some punters are still not sold into the new NBA super team.
The Nets’ title odds improved from 12-1 to 7-2 last week at SuperBook. Jeff Sherman, who oversees NBA SuperBook odds, began slashing Brooklyn’s title odds last Tuesday after Harden told reporters he didn’t think the situation in Houston was fixable. Sherman first reduced the Nets’ odds to 8-1, then to 6-1 before moving to 7-2 after the trade.
Only the Los Angeles Lakers have better title odds than the Nets, who have drawn big bets on the SuperBook in the preseason and more recently, including a bet of $ 10,000 in December. The Bucks have the second-best odds in the Eastern Conference at 8-1, followed by the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers at 20-1.
“I don’t have that much separation between them and some of the other teams in the East as the title odds indicate,” Sherman said. “When you see 7-2 on the Nets and 8-1 on the Bucks, and the Heat, Celtics and Sixers at 20-1, I don’t think on a per game basis there is as much of a difference as what ‘it appears to be based on the odds of the title. “
Sherman said his power odds on the Nets are not set at the moment as he waits to see how Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Harden develop chemistry.
“They can talk about a good game whatever they want, but we don’t know how the chemistry is going to come out of it all,” Sherman said. “There have been these rumors before that Irving was not happy with the Nets behind the scenes. Is that going to make him even more miserable?
Three questions
… with Scott Butera, co-CEO of sports betting platform Vigtory, who announced last week its intention to be acquired by live TV streaming platform fuboTV. The acquisition transaction is in the final stages, and once completed, fuboTV plans to launch a bookmaker before the end of the year.
Q: What is your vision for the product that will come out of the fuboTV-Vigtory agreement?
A: I think that being able to watch sports live, trade and bet on sports is very powerful. I also think it gives us huge reach in terms of customer reach, customer acquisition. The product, we will announce it at the right time, but the general idea is that you will have a kind of simultaneous experience between consuming sports, watching sports and being able to bet on sports and do sports transactions. It could be bets, goods, tickets. I think the idea is to create these multi-faceted global entertainment experiences. We find that there is a lot of synergy between the two.
Q: What are the remaining obstacles to launch such a service?
A: In terms of obstacles, clearly, like any other operator, we will have a state deployment plan. We are deeply rooted in this. Pass the right legislation in jurisdictions it has not yet adopted. I think these things will change over time. I think this combination [with fuboTV] helps us overcome these difficulties, and I think there are many different ways to access markets now that go beyond the traditional ways that a bookmaker would, either through streaming services or through other products that we could introduce. don’t necessarily have the same regulatory challenges as sports betting right now. It helps us eliminate a lot of it, actually.
Q: Vigtory’s advertised approach to sports betting was to offer a low intensity sports betting option. Is this still the plan?
A: Our plan was always to have a great product and great value. We want to have great technology, great experiences, and we want to have great value. And value is not necessarily defined by price; it’s defined by what you get for what you pay for, and that has always been our goal.
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