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WASHINGTON – President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s national security team is likely to be largely made up of former regulars in the Obama situation room ready to restore foreign policy principles rejected by President Trump.
An Obama redux would be a source of enormous relief to establishment insiders, who are desperate to see seasoned hands regain control of national security. But that likelihood is also causing concern among some younger, more liberal Democrats, eager for their party’s pre-Trump national security instincts, which they see as very outdated.
Mr. Biden will of course lead the policy: as a former vice president and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he needs much less expert advice on foreign policy than his recent predecessors. But he will also be consumed in his first months by the coronavirus and his economic agenda, potentially giving his best nominees an unusual influence.
They are almost certain to include Antony Blinken, assistant secretary of state and deputy national security adviser under Mr. Obama who previously worked for Mr. Biden in the Senate; Avril Haines, member of Mr. Obama’s Central Intelligence Agency and his National Security Council; Susan E. Rice, Mr. Obama’s last national security adviser; and Michèle Flournoy, the highest political figure in the Pentagon under Mr. Obama.
“I think virtually everyone who gets appointed will have served under Obama,” said James Mann, author of books on foreign policy advisers to Mr. Obama and former President George W. Bush.
While their collective resumes are crisp by Council on Foreign Relations standards, some insiders and party analysts say Mr Biden’s standby team may be too cautious and conventional at a time when insurgents and Party activists challenge democratic orthodoxy on topics such as Israel, military spending, and counterterrorism operations in the Middle East and North Africa.
To some, they are representative of what former Obama deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes has dubbed “The Blob” – a Washington foreign policy establishment overly confident in US hegemony and overly willing. to use force.
They also complain about their relationship with the company, noting that Mr Blinken and Ms Flournoy in 2017 founded Washington consultancy firm WestExec, whose slogan was “Bring the situation room to the board room.” Her list of current and former employees is a who’s-who of people likely to be named by Biden, which includes Ms. Haines, a former manager.
“They’re bringing in the usual suspects. There is no new face here, ”said John Mearsheimer, professor of political science at the University of Chicago and frequent critic of Washington’s foreign policy elites. “And as far as there are new faces and younger people, they look like the usual suspects.”
Most people around Mr Biden represent a risk-free, center-left approach to foreign policy, Mr Mearsheimer said, an approach that envisions a more active role for economic power, diplomatic and, in some cases, American military that many ranks. -and-file in favor of the Democrats.
Mr. Biden’s early national security appointments are likely to contrast with those of Mr. Obama, who took office after only a few years in Washington and with only a handful of foreign policy aides under his wing. As his national security adviser, Mr. Obama chose a retired naval general, James L. Jones, whom he had only met once. The relationship never took hold and Mr Jones was gone in less than two years.
But Mr Biden will be surrounded by very familiar faces, starting with Mr Blinken, 58, an aide who has worked for him since 2002, when he became director of personnel in the Senate External Relations Committee when Mr Biden was president. Mr Blinken, a wavy-haired rock and jazz aficionado with gentle manners in classic diplomatic style, may aspire to become secretary of state, though some predict Mr Biden will want his confidant in the West Wing. as a national security adviser.
Ms Rice, with whom Mr Biden has spent countless hours in the situation room and almost chose to be his vice president, is another prominent candidate for the head of the State Department.
But his outlook looks bleaker now that Republicans can retain control of the Senate. Ms Rice has been a special target of congressional Republicans, accused of dishonestly downplaying terrorism as the motive for the 2012 deadly attack on a US compound in Benghazi, Libya, while she was ambassador to the United Nations. Their obsession with the episode – which some of Ms. Rice’s allies attribute to sexism and racism – persuaded Mr. Obama in 2013 to appoint his National Security Advisor, a post that does not require Senate confirmation, not Secretary of State as he had originally planned.
An alternative is Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, a close ally of Mr Biden who occupies his former Senate seat and has been an active member of the Committee on Foreign Relations. In temperament and ideology, Mr. Coons, a Democrat, is a relative moderate respected by his fellow Republicans and could be much easier to confirm.
Mr Biden could also choose from a handful of career diplomats who have served in Democratic and Republican administrations, giving them bipartisan credibility. They include Bill Burns, a longtime senior State Department official who served as Assistant Secretary of State under Mr. Obama and now heads the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Nicholas Burns (unrelated), another former diplomat. longtime serving in senior positions in the Bush Administration. Both men could be in line for other senior diplomatic jobs like ambassadors.
Ms Haines is a likely choice to lead the CIA. Some progressives complain that she was not a more active critic of the agency’s torture practices during the Bush era, but Obama officials say she was supported limiting drone strikes against terrorists causing civilian casualties. Ms Haines understands the agency without being captivated by her opinions, according to one of her Obama White House admirers. An alternative would be Michael Morell, a former deputy and acting director of the CIA.
Ms. Flournoy is the expected choice to lead the Pentagon. Respected by Republicans, she would very likely meet little confirmation resistance. But Mr Biden may prefer someone with more political experience than the cerebral military strategist – especially given potential battles with the Liberals that will demand big defense cuts that Ms Flournoy would likely resist.
Another candidate for Secretary of Defense or Attorney General is Jeh C. Johnson, a former Defense Department General Counsel who, as Homeland Security Secretary under Mr. Obama, once headed a Department of Defense. cabinet. His old job could go to Lisa Monaco, who helped Mr Biden control his potential running mates during the campaign.
The Ambassador to the United Nations has often been a stepping stone for promising or rising figures, someone like Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, India, who is said to be interested in the post and has not served in the Obama administration. Although he never practiced diplomacy, the multilingual Mr Buttigieg served as a naval officer in Afghanistan and spoke more in depth about foreign policy than most of the Democratic presidential candidates of 2020.
Other important positions will likely go to Brian McKeon, who first worked for Mr. Biden when he was a senator in the 1980s and held a senior position in the Pentagon in the Obama administration, and Carlyn Reichel. , who wrote foreign policy speeches for him when he was vice president and coordinated his outside foreign policy advisers during the campaign.
Mr. Obama’s second national security adviser, Tom Donilon, has known Biden since the 1980s and served as his campaign adviser. He has become an expert on China, and a former Obama official has questioned whether he could become the ambassador to Beijing or possibly take on a high-level intelligence role. Some believe Mr. Donilon, whose brother Mike is Mr. Biden’s chief political strategist, would be happy to be secretary of state.
John Kerry, Mr. Obama’s second secretary of state, was a contemporary of Mr. Biden’s Senate, campaigned for him during the primaries and, even at 76, is expected to retain his inexhaustible appetite for the political fray. Some admirers see him as a potential climate czar – global warming has become his main cause – or perhaps as a special envoy to a difficult place abroad.
A big question is what will happen to Jake Sullivan, who was Mr Biden’s national security adviser before becoming assistant to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Long referred to as a future national security adviser, Sullivan has foreign policy experience but has been coordinating national issues for the campaign since the March coronavirus outbreak. If he doesn’t get a nationally-oriented job, Mr. Sullivan, 43, would naturally be for a senior national security post.
Reporting was provided by Katie Benner, Lara Jakes, David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt.
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