Oddsmakers give dolphins 1% chance to win AFC East

Do not call it tanking.

Call it a strategic reconstruction that could lead to the first selection of the 2020 project.

And if you look at the dolphins for two weeks through this lens, then the plan is on the right track.

Just ask Alan Berg, head of the odds at Caesar's Entertainment, who shared updated ratings from his book for each team to win his division.

The Patriots, unsurprisingly, are the big favorites to repeat as champions of the AFC East: minus-850, an implied probability of 89.5%.

Adam Gase and the Jets are next on the list at 6.5 versus 1.

Bills rank third at 10 to 1.

So where does it leave the dolphins?

Twenty to one? Thirty-in-1?

Not even close.

Berg lists the dolphins as 100 to 1 They are trying to win their first division title since 2008. In other words, they have a 1% chance of dethroning New England.

It's historically bad.

By comparison, the cardinals – owners of choice # 1 of the 2019 project – have 25 votes to 1 to win the title of NFC West. The Giants, who have just swapped one of the league's best players, are 15 to 1 to win the NFC East.

The Giants are six times more likely to win their division than the Dolphins.

And considering the construction of the Dolphins list, it's almost a surprise, their chances are good too.

Dolphins do not have quarterbacks. (And their two best choices of veterans decided that a better option was to sign backups elsewhere.)

They have no right tackle or left guard.

And their most accomplished defensive goal, Robert Quinn, is the lure of the trade.

For most other teams in another year, it would be a disaster in its own right.

For dolphins, it's the execution of a careful plan.

In other words, a lot of tanks!

Of course, they can not say that. No team will admit that the losses are really victories.

That's why Chris Grier told Scouting Combine journalists: "We are not trying to lose or lose every game. But we will build it correctly and see how it goes. "

But his actions spoke even louder.

The dolphins are here in 2020, with at least 10 draft picks planned (including a very good first round, if Vegas is right) and more than $ 120 million in salary cap space.

But before the end of the season, we will have to survive the months of September, October, November and December.

And there will be pain, insists Vegas.

Even before having traded Ryan Tannehill to the Titans for selections, including a fourth in 2020, the Dolphins were the longest shot to win the Super Bowl. OddsShark had them at 125-1. Westgate listed them at 150-1.

As for VegasInsider? A huge 200 for 1.

But again, do not panic. In the absence of trading for Aaron Rodgers, Odell Beckham Jr. and about 10 other players, the Dolphins were not going to win everything this year. Grier knew that the day he took control of the football operations.

So, with the blessing of Stephen Ross, he made the strategic decision to take two steps back in the hope of making a leap forward.

The wise observers understand. And applaud for that.

"I can not believe I'm saying that, but #Dolphins do * work," wrote Evan Silva, NFL's senior writer for Rotoworld. "Have the chance to become one of the most exciting teams in the NFL over the next few years if this continues."

But first, they will lose.

Probably a lot.

It will not be fun, dolphin fans. But you can never say that the betting public did not warn you.