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If you live in a high latitude, it’s time to get the camera out. Space weather agencies predict a solar storm for Monday, September 27: moderate, with a risk of dawn.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the British Met Office have both issued forecasts for the storm, which is expected to be the result of multiple solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar-triggered winds from a “hole” which opened in the solar corona.
While there may be up to four CMEs that could affect Earth, you don’t have to worry. The storm will only reach a G2 level – relatively mild on the five-level solar storm scale, on which G5 is strongest.
At high latitudes, the forecast G2 storm can cause fluctuations in the power grid; the orientation of the satellite may be affected, with increased drag in low earth orbit; and the high frequency radio propagation may fade.
But we can also feast: “Aurora can be seen as low as New York in Wisconsin in Washington state,” the NOAA wrote in its alert.
Solar storms are part of fairly normal space weather, and in the next few years we can probably expect to see more of them. They occur when the Sun gets a little noisy, in the form of CMEs and solar winds, causing disturbances to the Earth’s magnetic field and the upper atmosphere.
CMEs are pretty much exactly what they sound like. The solar corona – the outermost region of its atmosphere – erupts, ejecting plasma and magnetic fields into space. If the CME is oriented towards the Earth, the collision of solar ejecta with Earth’s magnetic field can cause a geomagnetic storm, also known as a solar storm.
Solar winds emerge from “holes” in the solar corona. These are cooler, less dense regions of plasma in the Sun’s atmosphere, with more open magnetic fields. These open regions allow solar winds to escape more easily, blowing electromagnetic radiation into space at high speed. If the hole is facing Earth, these winds can blow right at us, once again rising into our magnetosphere.
The Sun currently has both underway.
“There are four CMEs that can affect the Earth,” the UK Met Office explained on its website.
“Three of these could happen separately or as a single combined feature on September 27, with another CME looking at Earth later on September 27 or September 28. A rapid headhole wind can also affect the Earth. September 27 and 28, although the effects of this wind are considered uncertain.
“There is also a low risk that CMEs and fast winds will affect land at similar times, producing a larger effect. Any improvement would then subside on September 28 and 29.”
All charged particles that collide with Earth’s magnetic field are sent whistling along magnetic field lines to the poles, where they rain down on Earth’s upper atmosphere and collide with atmospheric molecules. The resulting ionization of these molecules generates the amazing dancing lights that we call auroras.
According to Space Weather’s aurora forecast, we have a level of Kp 6 on the Kp index at ten points of geomagnetic activity. This signifies a high possibility of bright and dynamic aurora with the likelihood of auroral crowns.
We can also expect more solar storms in the months and years to come. The Sun is currently heading towards the most active period of its 11-year cycle, known as the solar maximum. During solar maximum, the solar magnetic field – which controls sunspots (temporary regions of strong magnetic fields), solar flares, and coronal mass ejections – is at its maximum, as is solar activity.
Earlier this year, the Sun spat out its most powerful eruption since 2017, so our star definitely seems to be waking up. Its sunspot activity is expected to peak in July 2025, after which it will fall back into solar minimum.
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