[ad_1]
The Venezuelan leader of the opposition, as well as some factions of the army, organized a coup attempt to overthrow President Nicolas Maduro.
Standing alongside soldiers on a military base, Venezuela's opposition leader and self-styled president, Juan Guaidó, has launched a military uprising aimed at overthrowing Maduro. In particular, he has been standing alongside Leopoldo Lopez, another opposition leader jailed by the government, who said he was released by elements of the army who had turned around. from Maduro. Both urged the armed forces to stand up and called on the country as a whole to mobilize in the streets.
"Today, brave soldiers, brave patriots, brave men attached to the Constitution have followed our call," Guaidó said in a video. He called this the "final end" of the Maduro regime, adding that "we are counting on the people of Venezuela today" and that "the armed forces are clearly on the side of the people".
The events are fluid and the information is confusing – clashes between some military forces and protesters suggest that the military has not completely abandoned Maduro. Police loyal to Maduro fired tear gas at protesters. The Venezuelan government downplayed the uprising and insisted that it was still under control. "A failed coup attempt failed," said Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez. Related: US pipeline boom could end in crisis
US officials made a series of statements on Tuesday and tweeted to encourage the coup attempt.
For the moment, the effect on Venezuelan oil production is unclear. According to Argus Media, sources in the Venezuelan oil industry say its activities have not yet been affected.
Venezuela's oil output fell to 732,000 b / d in March, down 289,000 b / d from the previous month, according to secondary sources at OPEC. This huge decline was compounded by the widespread power outage that swept the country for a while. But losses, according to all accounts, should continue.
US sanctions have closed much of PDVSA's global market, as buyers around the world have broken ties with the Venezuelan oil company. At the same time, the country's infrastructure is already handicapped by a lack of investment, a financial and economic crisis, a brain drain and the deterioration of the electricity grid.
According to Bloomberg, Chevron would have a hard time bringing back the Petropiar facility, a petroleum upgrader that it operates with PDVSA, back online. At the beginning of April, Petropiar's production was half as much as in January. Most worrying for Venezuela is that the joint ventures have been more resilient than the operations that PDVSA manages on their own, so the decline in its operations is not a good sign. Related: new models suggest much faster global warming
Petropiar – and many other oil projects – will struggle to regain their full capacity due to rationing of electricity. Electricity shortages, in turn, will probably not be resolved any time soon. "The problem of electricity for PDVSA adds to two previous problems that the government faces: the sanctions and the lack of investment, which are at the base of the decline in production at Venezuela, "said Francisco Monaldi, a member of the Baker Institute at Rice University, Bloomberg said.
Now, the prospect of persistent instability, or a real civil war, only heightens the dangers for the country and for its oil production. Argus Media said two army officials had stated that "six or seven" garrisons had been seized by soldiers supporting Guaidó, although these claims were not confirmed. At the same time, Argus also said that the president of the National Constituent Assembly, Diosdado Cabello, had ordered all "armed groups and civilian militia units in Caracas" to go to the Caracas presidential palace to defend Maduro.
Of course, nobody knows how the events will unfold, but the ingredients of prolonged violence between the opposition and the government are obvious.
By Nick Cunningham, Oilprice.com
More from Reading Oilprice.com:
[ad_2]
Source link