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The Toronto Raptors are one win away from their first NBA final in franchise history.
What does Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks have to do to force a 7th match and potentially move to the next round? What's the key for Toronto in Game 6 of Saturday? Does Kawhi Leonard have any real competition as the best player in these series?
Our NBA experts are immersed in the big questions, including post-season MVPs, who has the most issues and predictions for this series.
1. What do you look most closely in game 6?
Kevin Arnovitz: How Giannis Antetokounmpo reacts to Toronto's defense. How does he respond to double teams? How well does he help (where, when, and who)? What is the quality of his decision making with the ball? The extent to which Antetokounmpo will perform these tasks decisively and intelligently will determine to a large extent the return of this series to Milwaukee.
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Tim Bontemps: Actors on both sides. At this point, it is reasonable to assume that Kawhi Leonard and Antetokounmpo will play well and produce numbers. As in the other five games of this series, the winner of the sixth match will depend on the choice of the cast. In the last three games, this advantage has gone to Toronto. If it stays that way on Saturday, the Raptors will go to the NBA Finals.
André Snellings: The Raptors' 3-point shot and their ability to reach the edge for fouls. These things are connected and they have been key to Toronto's success against Milwaukee this season. In the Bucks' five wins, the Raptors shot only 29.5% of the city's center and averaged about one free throw through six attempts. Meanwhile, in the Raptors' four wins, they scored significantly better from deep (39.4%) and made twice as many faults.
Malika Andrews: Antetokounmpo. For the most part, Antetokounmpo has been good – not great – in this series. The Bucks will be tested in Match 6 in a way that they have not been this season yet. If the Bucks want the series to return to Milwaukee for the seventh game, as Antetokounmpo announced after the defeat of the fifth game, Antetokounmpo must be outstanding. Yes, he will need the help of Milwaukee shooters to space the ground, but Antetokounmpo will set the tone for his team. In addition, he has twisted his ankle in game 5. His health will be of interest.
Kevin Pelton: If the Bucks can get the stops needed to go out in transition. The teams generally get better results after a defensive rebound, but the Milwaukee offensive remained stuck in the mud after Toronto's victory. According to Inpredictable.com, the Bucks averaged 1.14 points per possession after a defensive rebound and only 0.96 after a successful shot. (In the regular season league, these averages were 1.09 and 1.06, respectively). So, Milwaukee has to make stops and run. The Bucks are 9-0 in playoffs when the pace exceeds 100 possessions every 48 minutes (as defined by Basketball-Reference.com) and 1-4 in their five slower games.
2. What was the biggest surprise of this series?
Shouts: Either the ability of the Raptors to find another equipment, or the inability of the Bucks to adapt. The Bucks have won five of the first six meetings against the Raptors this season by beating them at their own game. Antetokounmpo managed to make its way inside, despite the dominant defensive defensive terrain of the Raptors. In the past three games, the Raptors have tighter ties on Antetokounmpo, which should have opened up new opportunities for the other Bucks – but they could not take advantage of it. If head coach Mike Budenholzer does not find the right meter for Milwaukee, the series will end Saturday.
Andrews: The performance of the game 5 by Fred VanVleet. As incredible as Leonard was in the fourth quarter of Thursday's game, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which the Raptors would win without the 3 points of VanVleet's clutch. He has repeatedly hit the deep shot that Toronto needed to keep his advantage. This kind of performance is expected of Kyle Lowry or Leonard. But, as Nick Nurse said before the fifth game, what distinguishes the good teams from the big teams is the way the "non-superstars" play.
Pelton: Antetokounmpo suddenly unable to make free throws. Antetokounmpo has scored 12 of 26 (46%) defeats in the last three games. This made it difficult for him to score effectively against a Toronto defense allowing nothing easy, and these points are crucial in the games that were mostly tight.
Arnovitz: The inability of the Bucks to find a constant offense. It's not surprising that the Raptors are playing their defensive game plan, but the Bucks generally demonstrate the spacing, penetration and flow to unlock the field. Not so in this series. Milwaukee was thwarted at the point of attack and his attack lacked the usual order and pace we used to see all season.
Good time: The sudden reappearance of VanVleet. It is hard to exaggerate how dramatic his recovery has been. In the 10 games since the start of the conference semifinals until game 3 against the Bucks, VanVleet has fired 7 out of 44 and 3 out of 25 against 3. Over the last two games, VanVleet has now 12 19 on the ground – including an absurd 10 out of 12 of Deep. If the Raptors continue to get VanVleet and Norman Powell from the bench in Game 6, they'll feel good about their chances of qualifying for the NBA finals.
3. Fact or Fiction: Kawhi Leonard is the Playoff MVP
Good time: Made. At this point, I do not know how anyone could pretend otherwise. Leonard was a deadly team-mate in the playoffs, following his historic performance against the 76ers in the Eastern Conference semifinal with a brilliant performance against Antetokounmpo in this series. Anyone who has forgotten how great Leonard was in San Antonio, or who thought he could not reach those heights after his lost season a year ago, were clearly reminded how good he was.
Shouts: Made. This should be unanimous. Leonard has put together a storybook done so far. He is the top scorer among all the players in the conference finale (31.4 PPG), he has the iconic moment with squatting immortality in the corner and his defensive play on Antetokounmpo helped to tip this series .
Andrews: Done – but the finals reveal everything.
Arnovitz: Made. Since the beginning of the season, the Raptors have been variable in their shots, with one exception: Leonard. That's one of the most historic blows in the league's recent history to close Philadelphia or that he accepts Antetokounmpo's mission he has been both the most reliable and the most memorable of the two conferences. The individual numbers are staggering: 31.4 points, 8.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists, with a real shot percentage of 63.1 – and this before taking into account his defensive work.
Pelton: Made. I do not think it's particularly close. Nikola Jokic, long eliminated, is the only player to have a better victory than Leonard's replacement (WARP) in the playoffs, according to my team's stats. Antetokounmpo and Leonard get a score that's pretty similar to the minute, but the Raptors needed more from Leonard, with an average of 38.5 minutes in the 33.8 playoffs for Antetokounmpo, and his exploits of the match 7 against Philadelphia, that seems to be easy. choice.
4. Who is most in play on Saturday?
Pelton: It must be the Raptors, who with a defeat would go from big favorites to huge outsiders to reach the finals of the NBA for the first time, given the importance of the base pitch in a match 7. The Bucks can not seize additional opportunities for granted, but with Leonard, Kyrie Irving and two other 76 starting players from Austria, the East could be less difficult next season. It could be now or never for Toronto.
Shouts: Obviously, that is Drake. But among the entities on the ground, it is the Raptors who are most at stake for two main reasons. First of all, it's their moment after years of grief. But, more importantly, there is Leonard's impending free agency. A win on Saturday night and a trip to the finals could apparently convince him to stay out of the season.
Good time: The Raptors, multilevel. It's their chance to close the show. If they do, they go to the NBA finals for the first time and become the first international team to do it. President of basketball operations, Masai Ujiri, will be even more convinced of his decision to negotiate for Leonard last summer – and will likely have a better chance of retaining him as a free agent this summer. For veterans like Lowry and Marc Gasol, this represents the best chance of their career to reach the league round of the league.
Of course, Toronto could still win this series if they lost the sixth game. But with a home game and a chance to close this series, the Raptors can not afford to let it go.
Arnovitz: Raptors. Nobody knows the precise criteria that Leonard will apply to determine whether he will make Toronto his home for the long term. But it's fair to say that the probability that he stays in the North increases if the Raptors play in June. The Bucks will be discouraged if they lose, and even if it will impact an off season, we can expect them to be contenders in the foreseeable future.
5. Who wins the series and qualifies for the NBA Finals?
Andrews: I predicted that the Bucks would win in six games before the start of the series. There is no longer any scenario for the Bucks to reach this forecast. According to ESPN Stats & Information, even if teams that win the fifth game of the same series win the series 82% of the time, I will be consistent and respectful of the Bucks. For this to happen, Milwaukee needs his bench to perform better than in games 1 and 2. In addition, Eric Bledsoe must play at least as well as in match 5.
Arnovitz: Toronto, because it is much easier to win once than to win twice.
Shouts: At this point, the Raptors must be the favorites. They won three games in a row and were the best team for the majority of the series. They play at home and it is their window to win. That said, I chose the Bucks at the beginning of the series because if Antetokounmpo is in the form of MVP and the distribution that supports it plays at its level, they have the highest advantage. So if Toronto does not win on Saturday, the Bucks will become favorites again and enter the seventh game.
Pelton: Toronto in 6 is now the most likely outcome given at home, followed by Milwaukee in 7 and Toronto in 7, with the result remaining the least likely.
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