One of the most brilliant female stars of the GOP is pursued by Trump in 2020



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Sen.. Joni Ernst

Republican Iowa Joni Ernst will seek re-election in a state where Democrats made gains in mid-term in 2018. | Joshua Lott / Getty Images

Elections 2020

The Iowa senator, Joni Ernst, will have to pre-empt the president, whose trade war has tarnished his reputation in the state.

By MARIANNE LEVINE

ADEL, Iowa -Joni Ernst had just inaugurated a city hall one morning here when the barrage of complaints about Donald Trump began.

One by one, voters took the mic to sift through the Republican senator's first term about the president – his attacks on John McCain, his emergency declaration at the border and the reason why, 39 opinion of several voters, Ernst did not stand up to him. more often.

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"Other senators criticize Trump and defend McCain, but I have not heard anything from you yet," said a man. "Is there no line that Trump can cross that will cause you to break up with him?"

Ernst kept him calm by responding to the 30 people who went to the auditorium of a high school on the outskirts of Des Moines to hear him. But she said emphatically, "Oh, I often break President Trump's ranks." After defending McCain, she said, "So, that's it – you have it."

Ernst better get used to it. At the same time as she is preparing to be re-elected, Democratic presidential candidates will camp in Iowa and will hammer Trump. The increased focus on the president will test Ernst's political agility, which has generally earned high marks in the state but must meet for Trump – whose number polls is lower than his – and some of his unpopular policies.

Ernst was elected to the Senate in 2014 under very different circumstances. This 48 – year – old veteran is billed as an independent – minded Republican who would cut federal spending and fight against democratic dominance. But next year she will be on the ballot with Trump, whose tariffs have hurt the state's agriculture sector and whose tax cuts – backed by Ernst – have inflated the deficit without the reduce.

Ernst, known in the Senate for his relaxed attitude and willingness to work with Democrats, has every reason to hang on. His race is a top priority for Senate Republicans, not only because they hold a slim majority by 2020, but also because Ernst is one of the few women in their ranks – and one their most promising prospects, whether in terms of gender or sex. In November, she was the first Republican woman elected to the GOP leadership in the Senate for eight years and she was one of two Republican women sitting on the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee, which until this year had not no GOP woman.

But his reelection in the pennonist-conservative state, which Trump easily won in 2016, is not run in advance. The Democrats overthrew two GOP-held seats in Iowa last year, and Trump's approval ratings dropped as a result of the trade war. Barack Obama has twice won the state and Ernst's predecessor, Democratic Senator Tom Harkin, has represented the state for three decades.

"There are only two ways to run – one is unopposed and the other is scared, so it must be prepared and I think it will be," said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) . Iowa, he added, "is not a ruby ​​state".

Ernst projects a warm and realistic behavior: when she is confronted with voters, she is calm and allows them to finish their thoughts. She answers by explaining her point of view and refers to the voters by their first name, as if she were talking to a friend.

During her first term, she focused on issues affecting veterans and women. She collaborated with Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (DN.Y.) on a bill requiring sexual assault prevention training for new members of the military and teaming up with Senator Dianne Feinstein (D -Calif. ) On the reauthorization of the law on violence against women. She is also known in the Senate for her monthly "Squeal Award" which aims to draw attention to unnecessary spending by the federal government.

"I love Joni, I love working with her," said Senator Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), one of the most progressive members of the Democratic Party, a member of the Armed Forces Committee with Ernst. "We have our differences, [but] I think she's thoughtful and that she focuses on the things that interest her. "

The number of Ernst polls in Iowa has fluctuated, but seems strong now. In February, she had an approval rate of 57%. according to a Des Moines Register / Mediacom Iowa survey, an increase in its approval rate of 47% in September. Its approval rate hovers around 50% in the last two years, according to the survey.

Trump, on the other hand, has seen his net approval rate plummet by 20 points in Iowa since taking office, according to Morning Consult. The February poll of the Des Moines register revealed that 50% of Iowa voters disapproved of Trump, while 46% approved it.

Ernst has been a reliable vote for most of Trump's priorities. She has supported her candidates in the judiciary and the executive, the GOP's tax reduction plan, and the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. More recently, she sided with the President on her national emergency declaration for the construction of a border wall, even though a dozen other Republicans were sitting on the border. 39, opposed the movement.

Ernst broke with Trump on some points, though. She opposed the government's ban on transgender people serving in the military and criticized its trade policy and its effects on farmers. She also backed an amendment this year opposing Trump's "precipitous withdrawal" of Syrian and Afghan troops.

The former Democratic governor of Iowa, Tom Vilsack, who recently said that he would not show up at Ernst, believes Democrats should make the race a referendum on the respect of the contract between Ernst and Washington.

"She has essentially contributed to many Trump policies that are not particularly good for Iowa," Vilsack said in an interview.

Democrat Rob Sand, who was recently elected state auditor and is considered a potential challenger for Ernst, said his allegiance to the party line was his greatest vulnerability.

"She sold herself as a harness, rifle and castrating pig, which would be really tough and not hard," said Sand, referring to Ernst's. viral announcement 2014 brag about her castrating pig history as a metaphor for how she had eliminated the government's mess. "She has just received Mitch McConnell's orders."

Trump's trade war with China is a huge problem in Iowa. Tariffs have slammed the state's soybean sector, an important part of Iowa's economy. Last year, Iowa State University predicted that tariffs could cost state farmers up to $ 2.2 billion in revenue.

Ernst says that trade is an area in which she disagrees with Trump. She was part of a group of senators who co-sponsored legislation in February that would require the Department of Defense to justify tariffs issued on a national security basis.

"What he did with the tariffs was very hard on our agricultural industry, so I insisted that the administration end up striving to make trade deals, move, move, we want a good market, but move on, said, adding that his good relationship with Trump is a boon to the state. "I mean, he'll take my calls."

Ernst attributed Trump's declining popularity in that state to his trade war. Although she is confident that the President will take Iowa again, she warned that it would be much more difficult if Trump did not enter into any trade agreements to break the current stalemate with China.

J.B. Poersch, president of the PAC, majority party in the Democratic Senate, said the growing trade deficit could also weigh on Ernst. The United States had an unprecedented trade deficit with China in 2018. These numbers improved slightly in January. China has agreed to increase its soybean purchases as part of the trade negotiations.

"The fiscal debts, the trade deficit – they are all remarkably high and have worsened dramatically in a Republican administration at a time when Republicans were running everything," said Poersch. "That's what she saw as her main strategic issue."

Ernst's race in a battlefield state comes at a time when his party badly needs her.

Republicans had trouble recruiting female candidates and seducing female voters. The problem gained momentum at the confirmation hearing of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, when a group of white Republican men sitting on the Senate Judiciary Committee made Christine Blasey Ford grill, who accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault while they were in high school. He denied the allegation.

"It's pretty obvious in some of the bigger fights that we have people who look like me and not enough people like him," said Cornyn, a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Her compatriot Chuck Grassley, Republican Senator from Iowa, said that Ernst "solved our problems by being a good Republican Senator and encouraging other women to stand as an example."

Ernst pointed out in 2014 that she was not running "on my gender". However, she managed to become the first woman in Iowa to be elected to a federal position. Since then, Iowa has elected its first House Speaker, Linda Upmeyer, and her first Governor, Kim Reynolds.

"I think that Democratic Party rhetoric that there is a war against women is totally thwarted by democratic rhetoric," said Jeff Kaufmann, president of the Republican Party of Iowa. "If there is a war here in this state, we have women as generals."

Ernst has also become more personal about his own experience of sexual assault, in the midst of a public divorce.

"It's very difficult, I would say, to share my own story," she said. "It was important for me to recognize and hope to inspire other men and women, because it's not just women, there are men who are also going through this ordeal."

Ernst says his party can attract more suburban voters by paying attention to issues that concern them, like the cost of pharmaceuticals.

Upmeyer, the first woman president of Iowa in the House, attributes to Ernst the role of model for other women politicians of Iowa.

"Whether it's violence, divorce or even the fight to climb the ladder and have the opportunity to be an American senator," she said, "women may have something to do with it."

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