OPEC: Where will most new oils come from in 2020

The supply of crude oil off OPEC will increase by 2.4 million bp / d next year, OPEC announced in its latest monthly report on the oil market.

The cartel added that the increase would be due to the addition of new pipeline capacity in North America, which most likely means that the US is struggling with the Canadian pipeline and Mexico is struggling to reverse the decline of its production. In fact, OPEC mentioned that the natural decline in production in Mexico would somewhat offset the effect of the increased supply outside OPEC.

It is not only the United States that will increase production. New projects in Norway, Brazil and Australia will also contribute to the increase in non-OPEC supply.

However, OPEC has revised downward its non-OPEC supply growth forecast for this year: growth is expected to reach 2.05 million bpd, or 95,000 bpd lower than its monthly forecast preceding. This would bring the total supply excluding OPEC to a daily average of 64.43 million bpd.

In demand, OPEC expects the daily increase rate of 2020 to remain unchanged from this year, at 1.4 million barrels per day. Non-OECD countries will account for the bulk of this figure at 1.05 million bpd, while OECD countries will contribute 900,000 bpd to growth in the global demand.

Surprisingly enough, China will not be the main driver of the new demand for oil. According to OPEC, this will be the rest of Asia, with China's oil demand growing at a more moderate pace than this year.

OPEC oil demand growth in particular is expected to slow down next year: according to OPEC forecasts, the total would average 29.3 million bpd in 2020, compared with the previous year. down 1.3 million bpd from this year. The daily rate of decline in demand is 100,000 barrels per day higher than the cuts agreed by OPEC with its non-OPEC partners last December and suggests that the deal should to be extended further than the end of March 2020, which OPEC and its partners have agreed. earlier this month.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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