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The NFL is back tonight with the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers, one of the best rivalries in the sport, opening the season on Thursday night.
Almost exactly a year ago, the Bears and Packers played one of the most exciting games of the 2018 NFL season. The first fight of Sunday night of the year, it was a match that had everything to please: historical rivals, stars on both sides of the field, incredible performances and spectacular return led by a great.
Tonight, we start again. And as we will see in the field, the situation is the same in both teams preparing to fight for the 199th time, but the difference is also great.
The Bears are back with nine of the eleven starters off last year's offensive, Mitchell Trubisky and the company currently working on the second year of Matt Nagy's system. The Packers are of course always alongside the legendary Aaron Rodgers, whose receiver number 1 is still Davante Adams and who still has one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Bears also bring back nearly every major contributor to NFL's best defense from last year, with eight of the 11 starters coming back for a recovery.
But the Bears replaced running back Jordan Howard by rookie David Montgomery. Former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is now the head coach Bryce Callahan, from slot machine corner, followed him to Denver and was replaced by former Browns and Jets corner of Buster Skrine. (Fangio was replaced by former Colts coach Chuck Pagano, who spent last season working as a consultant for several teams.) Safety Adrian Amos signed withwell, the Packers, and have been replaced by … the former Packers Safety Ha Ha Clinton-Ten.
Green Bay has a new coach (and therefore a new offense) for the first time since 2006, with Matt LaFleur is hired take over from Mike McCarthy. Aaron Jones now seems to be the undisputed star of the comeback, while second-year striker Marquez Valdes-Scantling seems to have locked the No. 2 post and Geronimo Allison has taken his place. And all these changes are nothing compared to the Packers redesign of defense, where they spent a total of 154 million dollars this dead season to bring Preston Smith, Za'Darius Smith and Amos aforementioned to anchor coordinator Mike Pettine's unit; traded on the ground the former Maryland security guard, Darnell Savage, in the project; let Clay Matthews go into free will and make Mike Daniels a loss of salary near the beginning of the camp.
How will all these changes affect this meeting, which doubles the first game of the 100th NFL season? We are glad you asked the question because that is exactly what we are here to break down.
Looking for more information on the opening of the Thursday night season? Jared Dubin joined Will Brinson to break up the game on the latest episode of the Pick Six podcast. Listen below:
Packer Info at Bears
- Date: Thursday September 5th
- Time: ET20:20
- TV channel: NBC
- Diffusion: fuboTV (Free Trial)
- chances: Bears -3, O / U 46.5 (via SportsLine)
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When the Packers have the ball
Let's start with what we know, which, because of the framing and schematic changes, is primarily the way things are going to play out on the Bears side.
Chicago will almost certainly be at the rendezvous with its main cornerbacks, with Kyle Fuller in the left corner and Prince Amukamara in the right side. They each played 99% of their shots against those sides of the ball last season, and there is no reason to believe that this will change with Chuck Pagano replacing Fangio as the defensive coordinator. Chicago will move star running back Khalil Mack to try to get him into favorable clashes, pushing him back on the left side (51.5% of his catch last season) or on the right side (48.5%) depending on formations and alignments, while Leonard Floyd will rush. in front of him. Akiem Hicks will put the pressure in the middle of the field, Roquan Smith will move side by side and Eddie Jackson will monitor the backside to try to play the ball.
All these known elements inform us of what we can and should expect from the Packers as an offense. Davante Adams was most often lined up as a left-back receiver last season. He spent 52% of his catch while he aligned with 27% and 21% on the outside. Given the respective strengths of the Bears half-corners and the greater efficiency of slot machine receivers, LaFleur would do well to move Adam much more than McCarthy did last season.
Skrine is the most obvious weak link among DB's trio, and Adams could absolutely eat against him from within. Skrine allowed 537 yards passing the underdogs of the slot machine last season, the third total in the NFL, by Pro Football Focus, while his five touchdowns in the slot were scored mostly in the league. We expect Allison to be the main player in the Packers slot machines, but since Chicago mainly keeps its corners aligned in the same way, it makes sense to play the match for Rodgers to find the time as easy as possible to find its main target. If the Bears want to have Fuller and Amukamara entangled with Valdes-Scantling and Allison while the whole game is going on while Rodgers spices Adams with throws, it's to the benefit of Green Bay and not Chicago.
Likewise, we should expect Mack to hurry above the left edge in this game. Bakhtiari is undoubtedly the best offensive lineman in the entire league. Although Bulaga is an above-average straight tackle, it's definitely easier to beat him than Bakhtiari. Putting Mack in the best possible position to successfully disrupt the Green Bay offense means letting him work against the weaker of the team's two tackles – even if it means that Rodgers has a better view of where it comes from. exact of his race as s he was on the blind side.
Although we do not know exactly what LaFleur's new pass attack will look like, we can certainly expect more passes from Rodgers to come off the scythe. Rodgers pitched after a fictitious run on just 20.1% of his attempts last season, by PFF, a number that ranked 30th out of 37 skilled smugglers. LaFleur comes from coach McVay / Shanahan, where they direct some of the most played games in the league. Jared Goff is ranked second among these 37 quarterbacks at the action-play rate last year, while Marcus Mariota is ranked fifth. (LaFleur spent last season as offensive coordinator for Tennessee.) Expect a big increase for Rodgers in this area, and for Packers to create big games on passes and crossover routes when you're in the game. he simulates the race before going back to the surface. discard.
Although there is a school of thought that the effectiveness of the game requires a dominant performance or at least strong, research has proved that it was much less true than what we generally believes. So, even though the Bears made almost every important piece of defense against last year's # 2 race by DVOA, continuing a very heavy pass attack remains a beneficial strategy.
These counterfeits could even help Jones get lost in the race, helping to increase his efficiency over the 20-yard, 69-yard career he has won against the Bears. Rushing straight into an indoor stud line player like Hicks is not the best idea in the world, but a zone-based system that allows Jones to sneak behind blockers until a crease is over. open and then explode is probably what we will see in action. The Rams were the league leaders in the zone last season, according to Sports Info Solutions, while the Titans were fifth. The Packers placed just 29th, which will mark a rather significant change in the appearance of their hasty attack. (The 2018 Bears ranked second in terms of number of yards allowed per round in the area, for what it's worth, yielding only 3.2 yards per shot.)
However, the biggest difference on this side of the ball may not be the change of callers to the offensive game for the Packers, but many callers to the defensive game for the Bears. Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan and LaFleur, interviewed by ESPN.com last week and whose defenses are the most difficult to attack, have all given the same answer: Vic Fangio.
So who wins Packers vs. Bears? And on which side are the gains distributed in more than 50% of the simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Packers vs. Bears is spreading to jump Thursday, all of the advanced model that is up more than $ 7,000 on its best-rated NFL picks.
When bears have the ball
We know much more about what schemas and confrontations will look like in the section above, largely because the same people who call the game come back to the fold.
We know what to expect from the offensive of Matt Nagy: an attack in the manner of Andy Reid who uses a multitude of fast and decisive routes, counterfeits, directional errors and creativity to isolate the game leaders in an open space, offering them favorable fights. And we know what to expect from Mike Pettine's defense: an aggressive pass that relies on a heavy dose of blitz designed to force the opposing quarter to make mistakes. The 29.1% blitz rate in Green Bay was the eighth highest rate of the NFL last season, according to Football Outsiders.
However, the defensive review of Green Bay gives this match a very different look from what it was a year ago.
Preston and Za'Darius Smith will now take their defense of Pettine's defense, with the help of rookie Rashan Gary and veteran Kyler Fackrell. Second-year defensive back Jaire Alexander is the team's first corner, while Kevin King appears to be the likely No. 2. Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage are safe, while Tramon Williams will play in the slot and Josh Jackson will get a lot working again as well. Mike Daniels and Muhammad Wilkerson left in place of Dean Lowry and Montravius Adams. It's a very different look from what the Bears saw from Green Bay last year.
Maybe the area where this will help the most Chicago is the running game. Green Bay finished last season in only 24th place at the DVOA, but the division's second-best defenseman (Daniels) now plays for the Lions. Clark is an absolute monster inside, but it's only a guy. The Bears are back at the center of an offensive line blocking the above-average race, and have replaced a struggling runner who rarely broke the tackles (Howard, 66th in the PFF Eliffant rankings among the 72 backs having had at least 50 litters last season) with a dynamic runner who led the nation in missed tackles during his last year at the University (Montgomery).
The Bears are also expected to have some advantage in both short-distance and on-screen games, with Tarik Cohen offering an extreme speed and athletic advantage against linebackers Oren Burks and Blake Martinez. The Bears did not involve Cohen much in the game plan in two games with Green Bay last season (18 touchdowns for 96 yards and one touchdown), and although Nagy was open for not wanting to abuse the gadget, it's a good situation for Cohen to see 8-12 touches and break big games.
The Bears are likely to use Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel as perimeter receivers once again, while second-year halfback Anthony Miller spends most of his time in the slot. This will leave Miller most often opposed to Tramon Williams, who alternated between security, lunge and outside corner last year and who, according to PFF, allowed a ridiculous eight touchdowns and 125.6 binders on shots in his direction. Nagy and Trubisky should try to attack this confrontation early and often, which should help to open things up outside.
Of course, Trubisky will need time to launch if he has to attack in depth, which he did more than all the quarterbacks last season. Throws of at least 20 yards in the air accounted for 16.8% of Trubisky's total in 2018, by PFF, just behind Josh Allen of Buffalo. Trubisky, however, was only effective in varying throws with 73 attempts in 877 yards, seven touchdowns and six choices. The Bears left the pressure on Trubisky only 29.6% of last season's time, the eighth lowest rate in the league. He should at least have time to study his options, assuming that the front can withstand the dazzling run of the Green Bay passes.
The Bears could work without one of his drop valves, Trey Burton, who did not have much impact last season and spent a lot of time at the training camp and to the pre-season injury. If he sits, Adam Shaheen, a third-year player, will probably replace. We have not seen much of Shaheen for two seasons in the NFL, but he's huge (6-foot-6, 257-pound) and a strong athlete, and could provide a different look to any other Bears receiver.
Prediction: Bears 23, Packers 20
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