PAT NEAL: The forecast for this winter



[ad_1]

Fall has to be my favorite time of year. If only because it helps us prepare for winter.

Do you remember winter? Maybe you were so busy complaining that it was too hot last summer that you forgot what was to come. Luckily, we’re here to remind you that there’s no better time than the present to prepare for winter.

First of all, we need to analyze the forecast for the coming season using the best scientific data available.

There are many tools available to climatologists today to formulate an accurate picture of the severity of the season.

According to the September newsletter from Washington State’s office of climatologist El Nino, this dreaded mass of hot water that rises from South America every few years, hit the snooze button, allowing to the tropical Pacific Ocean to cool down over the past four weeks.

However, these observations are sufficiently inconclusive to institute an “El Nino” watch in case it does arise.

The climatologist’s outlook for September in areas west of the Cascades predict “equal chances of less than, equal to or greater than normal precipitation.”

Additionally, those same Washington state brains say that “the three-month fall outlook is equally likely to be below, equal or above normal.”

How is it to go out on a limb? That’s why they hit the jackpot.

Other winter tipsters have warned that it could get very cold here during the months of December, January and February – which would not be news to anyone who lives here.

That’s why we’re forced to ultimately rely on the exhaustive research of a humble wilderness gossip columnist to come up with a winter forecast that you can hang your hat on.

Make no mistake: winter is coming.

All the signs are there.

There has already been a dusting of fresh snow on the Olympics.

Geese, ducks, sandhill cranes and shorebirds march past at breakneck speed.

And I prepare my fish roe with pumpkin spice.

These are signs of the season that shouldn’t be ignored.

Deer have shaggy coats.

Spiders are large, hairy, and more numerous than usual.

Their webs are woven through the forest so thick that the first person on the trail is soon mummified in a layer of arachnid silk.

At dusk, we see squadrons of spiders riding the air currents on parasailing they have woven from their webs.

Other insects tell a darker story.

The massive caterpillar invasion that has plagued the peninsula should be of concern to all of us.

It’s not just the large number of caterpillars that is of concern, it’s their thick hair growth, much of which is an ominous shade of black.

If that wasn’t enough to cause additional anxiety, the corn husks are very thick.

There is a disturbing glut of cones on the trees.

To top it off, that other sure sign of a harsh winter has appeared, the old guide wood pile is large enough to be seen from space.

You only have to observe the appearance of the road hunter in an orange dress to know that winter will soon be here.

Then we’ll have the first frost and that other unmistakable sign of the changing of the seasons, the stupid clock tower.

Mother Nature is playing tough. We must be prepared.

Preparation is the key to winter preparation.

I may be wrong, but I have no doubts that this winter will be cold, dark and wet. It is a prediction that you can bring to the bank.

Prepare yourself, this winter will be bad. We will thank each other later if we do the right thing now.

_________

Pat neal is a Hoh River fishing and rafting guide and “nature gossip columnist” whose column appears here every Wednesday.

He can be reached at 360-683-9867 or by email via [email protected].




[ad_2]

Source link