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The Guardian
NFL Conference Championship Pick: Brady vs. Rodgers & Chief Shock
Two decorated veterans face off at Lambeau Field, while the best of the next generation play in Kansas City. Who’s doing the Super Bowl? Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers met earlier this season and the Buccaneers came out on top. Photograph: Mark LoMoglio / AP Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET / 8:05 p.m. GMT What the Buccaneers need to do to win: Surprisingly for two quarterbacks who have led the NFL for much of the century, he There’s not much history to follow between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers – this will only be their fourth meeting as a start. Brady won his previous game, a 38-10 beaten in Week 6 of this season, when the defense harassed Rodgers all day, sacking him five times. Rodgers, who has been for the most part blameless since, is unlikely to be bullied again. So Tampa Bay may have to beat the Packers in a shootout, hoping their formidable offensive weapons all click at the same time. This will put pressure on Bucs backup goaltender Aaron Stinnie, who made his very first NFL start against the Saints last week (and did quite well). What the Packers need to do to win: Like the Buccaneers, the Packers have a weakened offensive line. He held up fairly well against the league’s best defense, the Rams, last week, but Los Angeles biggest threat Aaron Donald was hampered by a rib injury. Rodgers has been so good this year that it’s hard to see him dominated by the Buccaneers if he gets enough protection. Some have argued that Lambeau’s icy terrain will give the Packers a big advantage over a warm-weather team like Tampa Bay. But Tom Brady played a lot of winter games in New England and it seemed to work out well for him. Key player: Rob Gronkowski, tight end, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Gronk’s best days are behind him and he’s no longer the unstoppable force he was a few years ago. So his importance in this game is not so much in his abilities but with whom he confronts. If the Packers have one obvious weakness, it’s their linebackers. Look for Brady to return to a familiar safety blanket and find Gronk in the middle of the field as this match continues. Prediction: Packers. The Buccaneers struggled to get rid of 7-9 Washington in the wildcard round and were helped by a series of Drew Brees turnovers against the Saints last week. Brady and his new teammates freeze a lot more than they did at the start of the season, but still aren’t the threat they should be, given their talent. I don’t think they’re where they can beat Rodgers and Davante Adams this time around. Buffalo Bills at the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET / 11:40 p.m. GMT Patrick Mahomes is the reigning Super Bowl MVP. Photograph: Jason Behnken / AP What the Bills need to do to win: The Chiefs can do so much damage, so quickly, in the air with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill encouraging them to go for the racing game, maybe not not pack the box, is an option. Josh Allen has evolved beyond recognition in a short span of time, in part because of the array of weapons he has, from the nearly impossible to cover Stefon Diggs to Cole Beasley to Dawson Knox. Bills will have to maintain that chemistry on Sunday. What Chiefs need to do to win: As mentioned above, Allen’s progress this season has been extraordinary, and he’s not the rolling machine he used to be. But he always makes mistakes and the Chiefs’ unparalleled defensive skills, whether Tyrann Matthew or Chris Jones, are able to force him to make mistakes. If the Bills manage to get the Chiefs off to the running game, the fitness of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, returning from injury, could be revealing. Key player: Patrick Mahomes, quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes is the best player in the NFL, so he’s the most important player in all the games he plays. But its impact on Sunday is particularly revealing. Mahomes was kicked out of last week’s win over the Browns with a concussion – and he’s been limited to training – but he will almost certainly start. The question is, which version of Mahomes is playing. The concussion doesn’t appear to have been too damaging (at least in the short term) but most concerning for the Chiefs is the fact that Mahomes also suffers from a grass toe. Mahomes isn’t Lamar Jackson, he won’t burn you 50 yards, but his mobility and ability to beat the rush to the top is a big part of his game. Prediction: Bills. A perfectly fit Mahomes beats Allen 90% of the time. But a limited Mahomes, who has been pretty good rather than awesome in his last few games, is a different proposition. The lingering effects of the concussion and his reduced mobility will put this one back to the Bills… right.
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