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LAS VEGAS – It is generally easy for bettors to post lines on most NFL games. A quarterback injury adds a degree of difficulty. An injury to Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes, who is among the league’s most valuable quarterbacks, has created an unusual debate.
Mahomes’ status is a mystery after suffering a concussion on Sunday, but the opening line for the Buffalo-Kansas City game in the AFC title game has still been released. The Chiefs -3 line has perhaps been the toughest number to make this season, and it’s obviously subject to change. That could change drastically.
“You have to create a game like this and let people bet it,” said DraftKings sports betting manager John Avello. “It’s a tough number. I think Mahomes is going to play, and I think he goes up to six. If you want to make a bet and speculate you can put all three knowing it will go a little higher if he plays.
Mahomes must clarify concussion protocol this week to play in Sunday’s game. The Chiefs would be a very different team without him and with veteran replacement Chad Henne as a starter. What is the transfer from Mahomes to Henne? Let the debate begin.
Westgate SuperBook manager John Murray has said Buffalo will become the frontrunner if Mahomes is left out, but there is a difference of opinion among his betting team. The line could switch to Bills -3 or move as high as -7.
“If Mahomes is doing well and healthy, it’s the -3.5 or 4 counts,” Murray said. “If he doesn’t play, Buffalo could be a 7-point favorite. The betting public loves tickets. “
The first big bet Westgate took on Sunday night was $ 20,000 on Kansas City -3.
VSiN tipster Vinny Magliulo said the opening line was a “conservative” number that will allow bookmakers to adjust quickly once Mahomes status is determined.
“This number tells you that we think Mahomes is going to play, and you could see that number increase,” Magliulo said. “There will be money in Kansas City even with Henne.”
The value of a starting quarterback in points spread has a lot to do with the quality of the save. Magliulo is high on Henne, a veteran who made key plays in the fourth quarter of the Chiefs’ 22-17 win over the Browns on Sunday. Kansas City is not hopeless with Henne.
Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are each worth about seven points away. There are no injury issues in the NFC title game, with Rodgers and the Packers opening as 3.5-point favorites against Brady and the Buccaneers.
“Rodgers is the most important from a quarterback’s point of view,” Magliulo said. “Henne was not that great. He was quite calm. You know he’s going to have all the representatives in practice Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Think about backup shifts with all the remaining teams. Who is the best performing backup? It’s Henne.
If Mahomes misses the conference championship game, Magliulo said he doesn’t think the Chiefs should be more than 3 points behind the Bills losers.
“Could it be Buffalo -7?” No, said Magliulo. “So you’re saying Mahomes is worth 10 or 11 points?” I don’t agree with that. My personal opinion is that I don’t see this as a 10 point difference. There is no way it is that much. I think Bills -3 is still high, but it’s much more consistent.
While the AFC line could be volatile – with estimates ranging from Chiefs -6 to Bills -7 – the NFC game will focus on betting volume and two-way action.
“I think the NFC Championship could be the biggest non-Super Bowl game ever,” Murray said. “It’s Brady against Rodgers at Lambeau Field. You can’t ask for a bigger clearance. It will be a massive grip through the roof.
Brady hit two touchdowns and ran one as Tampa Bay upset New Orleans 30-20 and likely ended Drew Brees’ career. The Saints made four turnovers, with Brees throwing three interceptions.
“The Saints kind of gave this game with turnovers,” Murray said. “I don’t see that happening with Rodgers at all.”
The Packers covered as a 7-point favorites in a 32-18 win over the Rams. Rodgers, who jumped over Mahomes at the end of the season to become the favorite MVP, had 296 yards and two touchdowns.
Brady is making his 14th trip to a conference title game, but it is his first in the NFC, and the meeting at Green Bay will be Brady and Rodgers’ first postseason meeting.
“Brady is bringing in money, and the Bucs continue to make a lot of money,” Avello said. “You pit them against the Packers, who always make a lot of money, and it’s going to be huge.”
Matt Youmans is editor-in-chief of VSiN.com, The Sports Betting Network.
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