Patrick Mahomes only needs a quarter against the Raiders to reverse the regression argument

OAKLAND, Calif. – With the interior dust belonging to the same diamond as his father, once underfoot, Patrick Mahomes threw a fastball after a fastball over, between and around the Raiders' defense, bringing Oakland to 443. yards and four touchdowns, leading the Chiefs to a 2-0 record with a 28-10 win, avoiding regression for a week longer and forcing us to wonder if he could still be climbing. It's understandable that the human brain has trouble understanding that Mahomes actually has the ability to improve, but in the first two weeks of the season, that's really what's happening.

On Sunday, during the Chiefs' last game at the Coliseum before the Raiders left Oakland for Las Vegas, Mahomes reversed the entire argument of the regression – and he only needed one-quarter to do it. In a second quarter that will not be forgotten, Mahomes scored for 278 yards and four touchdowns.

Twenty-four years ago, Mahomes' father authorized a single person without a meeting at the Coliseum. Two days later, a boy was born. Twenty-four years later, Mahomes said goodbye at the Coliseum by completing 30 of his 44 pass attempts, averaging 10.1 yards per attempt and generating a score of 131.2.

"Patrick had a good day," head coach Andy Reid said at the post-game press session.

The argument of regression, which has dominated the speech surrounding chefs this season, is not difficult to follow. History – the entire history of football – says that it will regress.

After amassing 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns last season, Mahomes will probably be unable to do so. So far in the history of the NFL, only two quarters have amassed 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in one season: Peyton Manning in 2013 and Mahomes in 2018. Doing it once is an almost impossible task. Doing it twice is literally unheard of.

That exceeds his gross numbers. In making those 50 touchdowns, Mahomes earned an average of touchdowns every 8.6% of his attempts. There is no need to go through the history books to discover that a touchdown rate like this is not supposed to be sustainable. To cite just one recent example, quarterback Texans Deshaun Watson made a touchdown on 9.3% of his passes in 2017. In 2018, he scored 5.1% of his passes. The fact is that it is almost impossible to systematically throw the highest touchdowns that Mahomes did a season ago.

A year ago, Mahomes averaged 8.8 yards per attempt. Since the amalgamation in 1970, only two quarters have averaged 8.8 yards or more in several seasons (minimum eight starts per season). The fact is that 8.8 yards per attempt must be considered hurricanes, not thunderstorms, and 8.8 yards per attempt must be considered unreliable waves.

Finally, Mahomes was chosen 12 times last season. According to the leading indicators of Football Outsiders, the total adjusted Mahomes interception was 21, tied with Sam Darnold. The fact is that he had a little luck.

There was no luck involved on Sunday. They were all leaders, and the Raiders did not have much to do, Mahomes having presented his own argument against the regression and dismantled the Raiders.

The Raiders fought valiantly. The Raiders fought nobly. And the Raiders gave 28 points and 464 yards.

After falling into a 10-0 hole in the first 15 minutes and beating their first two orders, the Chiefs exploded for touchdowns in the second quarter. Mahomes recorded a meager 6 of 9 for 35 yards and 73.8 for smugglers in the first quarter, while the Chiefs averaged only 2.8 yards per game. In the second quarter alone, Mahomes had 278 yards and four touchdowns. At halftime, he was 18 out of 26 for 313 yards, four touchdowns and 149.5 points, and the Chiefs had a 28-10 advantage.

"That's what we do," said Chiefs receiver Demarcus Robinson, who has six catches, 172 yards and two touchdowns.

Shot off by 10 early in the second quarter, missing Eric Fisher after the left tackle left the game in the first quarter due to a groin injury, from his favorite receiver at Tyreek Hill (shoulder and an ankle strike that he suffered last week. , that he admitted to having "felt a little" at "moments", Mahomes submitted a second-quarter masterpiece.

It started with a 44-yard bomb from Robinson, who completed a 72-yard touchdown run.

The ingenuity of Andy Reid is to have continued throwing bombs wide open to allow Mahomes to explode. According to next-generation NFL statistics, only 12.4% of Mahomes' pass attempts last season were thrown into narrow windows – only four quarterbacks were thrown into narrow windows less frequently than Mahomes. In the first week, Mahomes threw the ball into tight windows after only 3% of his 33 pass attempts – the lowest percentage in the league. The shot above, of course, was not thrown into a tight window. Throws like this, which continue to materialize thanks to Reid's brilliant stratagem, give Mahomes a viable chance to get back into the story, as they do not ask him to always thread the needle.

After the often-maligned defense of the leaders forced a deflated strike, the offense was blocked on its own demarcation line. Mahomes then led a 14-yard, 95-yard run. On this series, Mahomes converted a third and 9, a third and 7, a third and 10 that was canceled by a penalty for holding, and a third and 20 with a 42-yard touchdown pass to rookie Mecole Hardman.

Mahomes threw the ball to second base. Hardman caught the ball with the stride on the goal line.

Two minutes later, the Chiefs recovered the ball, this time on their own 6-yard line. It took three games to reach the Raiders' 20-yard line after Mahomes hit Damien Williams on a wheeled road for 32 yards and Robinson back for 43 yards. Two games later, Mahomes drew with Travis Kelce for a 27-yard touchdown with 1:41 remaining in the half.

Kelce stepped on the fugitive defender and Mahomes delivered a perfectly placed shot before safety came to the surface.

In consecutive playoffs, the Chiefs ran 189 yards on 189 games.

"You have to be able to do that – it's something we've been pushing for this year," Mahomes said. "When these long practices go, we have to make sure we finish them, get points and score touchdowns, and last year we scored a lot of points quickly, but sometimes we were stuck on those long drives. So it's good to see at the beginning of the season. We have these long journeys to keep the defense off the court and make it rest. "

It looked like the end of half of Mahomes, but after the Raiders quickly self-destroyed in attack, managing less than 12 yards on three games, the Chiefs had another chance. Mahomes and Robinson quickly signed up for a 39-yard touchdown in the first and only game of the record.

Mahomes returned to the shoulder and Robinson fell with the disputed grappling hook.

"Listen, I never take that for granted," said Reid. "Some of those throws, it makes you go," okay. " And we buzz them as if it happens every day. Well, this happens every day. That's what makes it unique. "

Finally, it was half-time.

"Well, we had a breakdown in a blanket, I know it, but a few of them were just amazing shots and catch too," said Raiders coach Jon Gruden. "You have to take off your hat, we have not had enough pressure, we have let Mahomes move over there and arm his arm, and when he has the opportunity, he can drop them there. no matter where they are.

There were thirty minutes left, but the game was well and truly over. No points were scored by both sides, but from the point of view of the leaders, no other point was needed.

In the third quarter, Mahomes seemed to launch his fifth touchdown – this one a 72-yard bomb against Hardman on the third and long – but a possession penalty cancels the game. That did not matter, but that's another example the number of rocket ships that the leaders have in their fleet.

It is the depth and explosiveness of the staff of the leaders that constitute another element of the argument against regression. The absence of their starting starting bull and their WR1 do not even matter, Robinson and Hardman largely replacing Hill.

Soon, the leaders will add a Pro Bowl left tackle and the league's most explosive receiver to an offense that has just dismantled the Raiders. The attack of the leaders would not be what it is without Mahomes – it is the key, of course – but it does not do it all alone. He has arguably the best offensive spirit in the league and the biggest armada of playmakers in the league.

Other teams are forced to modify and fine-tune their attack when they lose one of their best players. Chiefs do not do it because they do not need it.

"I think it's one thing about this offense," Mahomes said. "I just read my readings and the one that's open is open, I'm just trying to give them a chance to play."

"We will not change what we are doing," Mahomes said later when asked about Hill's absence.

As both Mahomes and Reid noted after the match, the Raiders were placed under the sign of Sammy Watkins after his attack on the Jaguars in nine catches, 198 yards and 198 yards, which opened up opportunities for players like Robinson and Hardman. The two emergency receivers combined 10 passes, 233 yards and three scores.

"They shared it with five eligible recipients," Gruden told the Raiders website during the week. "And they force you to defend every blade of grass, I call it.You have to defend these people laterally with all the jets, and you have to defend them vertically with all the bombs that they can throw. So they really do a great job creating individual situations for the five eligible. "

And Mahomes is not afraid to pass the ball instead of attacking his favorite target, as Kelce pointed out.

"It was hitting at full speed," said Kelce. "He's doing an amazing job of staying true to his readings." Some quarterbacks might be … they might want to hang on to some type in terms of readings – just because of his quality, a guy like Sammy had 200 yards Last week, Pat could have gotten into this game and try to feed Sammy knowing he was on a roll for the moment, but he stayed true to his readings and it's a bravo hat to him. "

For a second consecutive game, Mahomes also avoided throws worthy of interception. In the first week, he did not make an interception pass, as the Chiefs repeated their attack on the fly after Mahomes had an ankle injury in the first period. In Week 2, he lost a breakaway in the fourth quarter and had only one or two shots that could have been removed earlier in the game.

After his performance against the Raiders, Mahomes has now racked up 821 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions, allowing him to keep pace for 6,568 yards, 56 touchdowns and no interceptions. He has averaged 10.7 yards per attempt and a touchdown of 9.1% of his passes after averaging 8.8 yards per attempt and one touchdown on 8.6% of his passes last year.

Take this for the data:

All this begs the question: What if Mahomes is still climbing? And if it has not reached its peak yet?

It's an argument that – as the argument of regression – makes sense. Last year was his first season as a starter and his second as a pro. He has just spent his third season assimilating Reid's system. He has accumulated a full season of experience against the defenses of the NFL. He had time to develop a chemistry with his targets. That's all that matters.

A few years ago, Tom Brady – probably the greatest quarterback of all time – expressed his feelings well when he said that he felt like he did it. "the answers to the test now. "

"You can not surprise me in defense – I've seen it all – I've dealt with 261 games, I've played them all," said Brady. "It's an incredibly difficult sport, but since the processes are right and in place, for all those who are experienced in their work, it's not as difficult as before. "I do not know what to do, now I really know what to do, I do not want to stop now, so it's really nice to go out."

Apply this same logic to Mahomes. Do not forget that Mahomes is in his third season in the NFL, his second as a starter and his season at the age of 23. And then ask yourself the following question: "Will Mahomes regress?" Or should it be "Is it ascending?" And if it is, how can it get better? What happens when Mahomes gets the answers to the test? These are frightening questions to consider because their answers defy what history has taught us, but these are the right ones to ask.

The history of the NFL indicates that Patrick Mahomes will regress. But never before has history seen Patrick Mahomes.