Pelosi faces internal Democratic strife as key deadline could sink Biden’s agenda

But no matter how she maneuvers until then, a new problem arises. While the House and Senate on that date have not approved a separate $ 3.5 trillion package to extend the social safety net, progressives have pledged to sink the infrastructure bill developed by a government. bipartite group of centrists.

“There is always the possibility that the vote will be delayed. But the question is whether we are going to work towards our goal of September 27? Yes. We are going to work hard to reach that goal,” said Jim Clyburn, Democratic whip of the Bedroom. , the No. 3 House Democrat, said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union”. “Sometimes you kind of have to stop the clock to get to the goal. We’ll do whatever it takes to get there.”

In addition to the September 27 deadline for voting on the infrastructure package, Pelosi must decide whether to wait until the Senses moderate. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema approve of what they can agree to in the broad spending package, which the party plans to pass with only Democratic votes, or whether it should ignore their demands and try to push through the House a bill. Liberal backed law.

If she agrees with progressives on the size and scope of this package of social spending, known as the “Build Back Better Act,” she risks forcing the moderates to vote on a bill that could ultimately be reduced and radically changed in the Senate, effectively forcing them to vote on a series of contentious tax and spending provisions that could become liabilities during the election campaign next year.

“She knows how dangerous it is for our front lines,” a moderate Democrat said of her party’s most vulnerable members. “Nancy is at a dead end. But it’s her dead end.”

“Why would you want people to walk the plank for fun?” ”

Indeed, the next few days will test Democratic leaders and President Joe Biden’s legislative power as Democrats in Washington settle into a tedious and complicated negotiation that will force the party to agree not only on policy. , but also to navigate a delicate timetable that could be upset by any faction in their party.

While it is still possible that a caucus faction will eventually back down, moderates and progressives are positioning themselves to have the leadership respond to their demands. And how leadership ultimately reacts remains to be seen.

“There is a strong argument for making as much progress as possible,” said Rep. Tom Malinowski, a New Jersey Democrat whose GOP seat is targeted for midterm next year. “I fully understand the desire of some of my colleagues to move forward on the reconciliation bill in parallel,” he said, referring to the spending package that is evolving in what is called the process. budget reconciliation. “But I also don’t think that given the progress, taking infrastructure hostage would be justified.”

Last week, key House panels completed their work by passing the $ 3.5 trillion bill in committee, an ambitious plan that would expand Obamacare, strengthen the country’s paid family leave policy, expand the child tax credit and would increase taxes for corporations and high net worth individuals in the country. By using the reconciliation process, Democrats can bypass an obstruction in the Senate and thus pass it with a simple simple majority of 51 votes.

But it is expected that it will still have to be changed considerably to succeed in bringing together the 50 Senate Democrats and win votes in the House, where Pelosi has only a narrow margin. For moderates in the House facing re-election in tough constituencies, the prospect of voting on anything that does not have the blessing of the entire Senate is too risky.

Many Democrats remember the vote Pelosi forced them to vote in 2009 on cap-and-trade legislation to fight global warming – a controversial bill that has become a major line of attack against the lawsuit of campaign even though it has never been considered by the Senate.

A moderate Democratic member who agreed to speak to CNN on condition of anonymity to discuss the party’s internal dynamics told CNN he was confident Pelosi would not force a vote on the vast spending program which will be very different that of the Senate, knowing that repeating the drama of cap and trade would be an unforced error.

“Why would you want to get people to vote on something when we have a four seat majority? Why would you want people to walk the board for fun? Pelosi artfully recognized that and made that commitment,” the member said, adding that other leaders have also suggested that this will not happen.

What Pelosi promised in August was that she would hold a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27, just days before federal highway funding ran out. This deadline could help win over skeptical progressives, whose voters may be moved by the funding expiration. She also pledged to “work with Democrats in the House and Senate to reach an agreement for the House to vote on a Build Back Better Act to be passed by the Senate.”

The differences that remain

Although the House completed its work in committee last week, the series of increases have exposed some of the schisms that remain among House Democrats. On the Ways and Means Committee, Representative Stephanie Murphy of Florida was the only Democrat to vote against the committee’s text, saying some of the provisions gave it a “break”, as did the overall process.

On the Energy and Trade Committee, three Democrats voted against a provision that would have reduced the cost the U.S. government pays for certain prescription drugs. The provision is seen as a huge source of revenue for the Democrats’ proposal, but has faced an uphill battle in the House and Senate where members who have large pharmaceutical companies in their districts and states argued that the provision went too far and would have a negative impact on innovation.

With no Republicans expected to back the bigger spending envelope, Democrats can’t afford to lose more than three votes in the tightly divided House. And prescription drugs are just one issue that could lead to Democratic defections.

Disagreements over how much to raise taxes on businesses and the wealthy are also expected to be a deadly fight.

Behind the scenes, Democrats in the House of High Tax States are also deeply engaged with their Senate counterparts in their efforts to repeal the state and local government tax deduction cap that was passed in the bill. GOP fiscal 2017. This cap only allows Americans to deduct up to $ 10,000 in state and local taxes on their federal returns.

For several Democrats in the high-tax House of States, the SALT issue was the only area they believed would get them to vote “no” on their party’s economic bill. However, many progressives, who argue that the rich should be taxed at a higher rate to cover the cost of the bill, have pushed back efforts to remove the cap. They argue it would be a boon to wealthy Americans who could then deduct more of their federal taxes.

Negotiations are still taking shape in many places. In the Senate, aides told CNN that the caucus is still in the process of defining the members’ position. And while the White House has been deeply engaged for months with Manchin and Sinema on the package, there is no indication that the president has been able to change his mind on issues such as the cost of the bill.

Instead, next week will be a crucial indication of how much Biden can accomplish in a tight House and Senate, and it will be complicated by a set of deadlines to fund the government by the end of the month and raise the debt ceiling. somewhere this fall.