Pelosi faces most delicate presidential election yet as Democrats enter new Congress with narrow majority

The launch of the new Congress is inherently messy in a pandemic. The House of Representatives implemented a “remote voting” in the spring. This is where the House allowed MPs at high risk, quarantined, tested positive or caring for a sick person to “phone” their vote. The House will vote Monday on a new “rule package” to start the new Congress that will include a remote voting option. But in the House, you cannot defer the rules of the 116th to the 117th Congress.

That’s why everyone has to show up at noon today.

This poses an interesting ethical question:

Is it appropriate that members who have tested positive, who have been in quarantine, or who have been exposed, are present today?

Here is what to expect in the House today.

First, the House has to deal with old business. The House last meets at 10 a.m. ET and adjourns the 116th Congress. The new 117th Congress begins at noon, in accordance with the Constitution.

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Representative Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., Ordained United Methodist Pastor, will lead the opening prayer to begin the new session.

Nothing constituted the House at that time. There is no loudspeaker. The Clerk of the House, Cheryl Johnson, presides. The first order of business is a call for a quorum to get everyone there – pandemic style.

Under normal circumstances, the 435 elected members of the House flocked to the chamber to vote electronically and register their presence. But during the coronavirus, the House will summon members to the chambers in seven groups of about 72 people. The first installment begins with Representative Alma Adams, DN.C., and goes through Representative Michael Cloud, R-Texas. The seventh and final group ranges from Representative Joe Wilson, RS.C., to Representative Lee Zeldin, RN.Y.

Members are instructed to report to the room, register their attendance and leave. We anticipate that it will take a little after 2 p.m. ET to achieve quorum.

Look to see exactly how many members are running for quorum. This will be crucial as it will dictate the size of the Chamber to start and the number of votes that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-California, needs to return to the Speaker’s suite.

The House will welcome the presidential nominations at approximately 2:30 p.m. ET. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y., will appoint Pelosi. Republican House Conference Speaker Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., Will appoint House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.

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The House will then begin a manual roll call, with Members appearing again in the chamber, in groups, and verbally announcing their votes. It will take until 5:30 p.m. ET or later.

We anticipate the election of the president between 5:30 p.m. and 6 p.m. Presumably Pelosi will win and be sworn in by the Dean of the House (oldest member), Rep. Don Young, R-Ark. Pelosi in turn swears in Young and begins swearing in members in groups of 72 members.

The House will observe a moment of silence to note the death of the late Representative-elect Luke Letlow, R-La., Who died of complications from the coronavirus.

The House is expected to start with 432 members and three vacant seats: 222 Democrats and 210 Republicans. The vacancies are from New York’s 22nd District, Louisiana 5th District, and Florida’s 27th District – but the latter will soon be filled. There is still no race call in the contest between current Rep Anthony Brindisi, DN.Y., and former Rep Claudia Tenney, RN.Y. The elected representative Maria Elvira Salazar, R-Fla., Indicates that she will not be present to take the oath. This is how we come up with at least three vacancies to start the new Congress, maybe more. Salazar could be sworn in as soon as her health permits. And the House could approve a resolution later this week allowing Salazar to be sworn in outside the Capitol. It’s happened before.

Pelosi has indicated that she will take the seat of Representative-elect Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, following her six-vote victory over Democrat Rita Hart. But Hart has asked the House administration to probe the outcome of this contest.

This is where it could get interesting.

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You are entering the field today with the players you have. That’s why, in an era of a pandemic, it’s possible – possible – that if Democrats don’t have the right numbers, Republicans might – might – actually have a majority.

We always say it’s a math question. It’s a question of math. It’s a question of math. Well, math really matters today. Whichever party has the most members present today, it has a majority.

Period.

The only thing that really matters to know which side has the most votes is what comes next: the election of the president.

Nothing can happen to the House until it elects a Speaker.

Nothing.

And anything can happen during a pandemic. Even Pelosi has said his enemy in the speaker race is COVID.

The candidate elected to the presidency obtains an absolute majority of the whole House, not the most votes. So if the House starts at 432 members and everyone is there, Pelosi needs 217 members to vote for it. If Democrats are at 222 and everyone shows up, the speaker can only lose five votes. Pelosi lost 15 votes in the speaker competition in January 2019.

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Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., Voted present in 2019. But Cooper now says he will vote for Pelosi. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., Voted “present” in 2019. Slotkin says she cannot support Pelosi. Reps Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., And Jared Golden, D-Maine, voted for Rep Cheri Bustos, D-Ill., Two years ago.

This is why some wonder whether it would be possible for the House to elect McCarthy or someone else as president.

This scenario is unlikely. But it will come down to math.

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What if no candidate gets 217 votes? The House continues to vote until it chooses a speaker. A vote for president has not gone to a second ballot since 1923. Speaker of the House, Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., Ultimately prevailed in the fourth ballot. The House burned two months and 133 ballots in 1856 before finally deciding that Nathaniel Banks of Massachusetts was fit to be president.

It will take a long time to wrap it all up, and Sunday could be a very long and confusing day, potentially with surprises from a pandemic.