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With no challenger in sight, President Nancy Pelosi is expected to move quickly through her run for re-election in Wednesday’s House leadership vote and get closer to what is expected to be her final two-year term in the very publicized.
It’s what she faces on the other side that could be the real challenge: a tighter House majority than it has ever had due to the unexpected loss of seats to Republicans; a long list of things to do after four years under President Trump; and a new intra-partisan battle between moderates and progressives vying for the best way to govern.
Heading into the election, House Democrats had a majority of 232-197, with one libertarian and five open seats. The split for the new year now stands at 219 Democrats versus 204 Republicans, with twelve contests too close to be called. That could leave Pelosi (D-San Francisco) with one of the smallest majorities in decades. To control the House, 218 seats are needed.
The success of what is expected to be his last term – Pelosi, now 80, agreed in 2018 not to run for president after 2022 – will also depend on the results of the January 5 run-off elections for both seats. of the US Senate in Georgia. If the Democrats win both, they will have the ability to control the Senate and, with President-elect Biden in the White House, get bills signed.
But if Republicans win even one of those seats, they’ll retain a majority in the Senate and the power to block Biden’s platform, regardless of what the House passes.
In either scenario, Pelosi will need to balance the demands of emerging progressive members of the Democratic Party with the kind of moderate proposals that will have a better chance of passing a tightly divided Congress. To retain the House majority in 2022, Democrats will have to deliver something if they are to avoid voter backlash in the midterm election.
Some progressives are already reporting that they see no reason to compromise on the legislation, noting that with the loss of some moderate Democratic MPs in the House on November 3, progressives will wield greater influence in the caucus.
“I don’t know that the dynamics of the House necessarily change our ability to do these really bold things,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Co-Chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. “Politics is the art of the possible. It is our job as organizers and activists… to change the limits of what is considered possible.
Rep. Scott Peters (D-San Diego), vice chairman of the NDP moderate coalition, said his group expects Pelosi to continue to protect the remaining moderates in the House – as well as the party’s chances in 2022 – by ensuring that the party takes a pragmatic approach. .
“She was very responsive to the concerns of caucus moderates about the messages. [that some in the party have] it may have cost us some ground in the last election, ”said Peters. “The elections gave us a little signal. Democrats have a background around socialism and other issues. We have to take this into account in the legislation we apply.
So far Pelosi has set an aggressive agenda, including swiftly adopting some progressive priorities, such as voting rights, prescription drug prices, and immigration legislation. Pelosi told reporters last week that she did not expect to change legislation the House is considering due to the narrower majority. Having a Democrat in the White House gives her weight in the Senate that she did not have under Trump, she said.
“We still have the power of the majority. But on top of that, our leverage and our power [are] greatly enhanced by the presence of a Democratic president in the White House, ”Pelosi said. “I don’t see that as a challenge at all. I see this as an opportunity.
But it could cut both ways. While many Democrats have given Pelosi the benefit of the doubt as she was a House leader battling both the White House and the Senate, expectations will be higher without Trump as a common enemy to unite her. members, said biographer and former Pelosi journalist Marc Sandalow.
“She no longer has Trump to walk around. Democrats no longer need her to counter Trump. And the underperformance in this last election, I’m sure, concerns some of his supporters, ”Sandalow said.
Despite this, the absence of a single challenger in Wednesday’s internal Democratic Party leadership election shows Pelosi has remained above the fray and enjoys the support of disparate factions.
Rep. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) said members were confident Pelosi had the skills to keep Democrats together.
“You won’t have a functional majority if you have significant divisions,” Huffman said. “Unity will be the key.”
The full House vote for president takes place in January, but Pelosi is expected to win just as easily, even with a narrower majority.
Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) on Tuesday won his caucus election to lead House Republicans for another two years as minority leader.
Two other Californians are among those seeking a place in the Democratic leadership this week.
In an election slated for Thursday, Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands) will face off against Rep. Robin Kelly of Illinois for the No. 6 position of Leader as the Democratic caucus vice-chair. If Aguilar wins, he will be the only Latino in the lead. If Kelly wins, she will be the first black woman to lead since Shirley Chisholm’s stint as caucus secretary from 1977 to 1981, a role that later became the post of vice president.
Aguilar, a member of the New Democrats, has shown talent for building consensus between the progressive and moderate wings, supporters say.
“He’s got a personal style where he lets people see where the middle ground is, and that’s a really essential skill in politics,” said Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.).
In early December, Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Los Angeles) will take on Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (DN.Y.) for the chance to lead the House Democrats’ campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Current President Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) Has said she will not run for another term after recent election losses.
Pelosi and Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland have held the top two spots in the Democratic leadership for 18 years, and Majority Whip James E. Clyburn of South Carolina has been in third place for 15 years. years.
To get the president’s gavel in 2018 amid backlash from those who wanted new leadership, Pelosi agreed to term limits that would prevent him from running again after 2022. The caucus never officially voted on the limit, but Pelosi said she would respect it nonetheless.
In a press conference on Tuesday, Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries of New York avoided a question about what Democrats are doing to prepare for a future without Pelosi as president.
“There is a great mix of experiences. Nancy Pelosi is a legendary speaker. One of the best that has ever done it. Already. She of course has my strong support, ”he said. “Whatever happens in the future is going to happen. During the Trump era, we just tried to get to tomorrow.
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