Peril! Holzhauer could win another 98 matches, say teachers

If you've thought of James Holzhauer's impressive 32 wins and $ 2.5 million in Jeopardy! Winnings, here's another thing to consider:

According to available figures, that is to say the data of his performances and those of hundreds of other recent competitors, Holzhauer should win another 98 games.

This is the conclusion of Syracuse University sports analysis professors Shane Sanders and Justin Ehrlich who applied probability theory to the information collected in the official Jeopardy game! website and a disc created by fans of the games and players of the series called J! Archive.

Sanders and Ehrlich made two other fun discoveries:

Holzhauer has nearly a 75% chance of breaking Ken Jennings' show record with 74 wins.

At the beginning of each match, Holzhauer has a 99.3% chance of winning. Translated into betting odds, you will get 141-to-1 for a bet against him.

Here's a glimpse of the sports world: The University of Maryland, Baltimore's wrath in Baltimore County versus the 2018 NCAA basketball tournament was a 20-to-1 proposition; Mike Tyson's weight gain by Buster Douglas in boxing is 42 to 1.

Sanders and Ehrlich are investigating the possibility of losing Holzhauer after leading the Final Jeopardy and the chances of losing it after continuing the Final Jeopardy round. (Mainly because very few links were linked to Final Jeopardy during the pre-Holzhauer match period studied, teachers treated the possibility of a tie as essentially zero.)

This does not take into account the possibility that his opponents improve as he continues to defend his position. For example, according to Sanders and Ehrlich, opponents could learn a better ringing strategy. Or they A more appropriate betting approach could be used to deal with Holzhauer's aggressive tactic of moving from one category to another in search of the daily double rather than staying in one category at a time, as the most competitors.

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But it's not going to be easy.

Holzhauer led the final in Jeopardy in each of his 32 games.

In all of his games, with the exception of three, his lead in Final Jeopardy was so significant that even though his closest opponent had bet all his winnings to that point and had provided a correct answer to Final Jeopardy, Holzhauer would have won without a correct answer as long as his last bet was not greater than the amount of his advance.

And, oh, by the way, Holzhauer provided only one incorrect answer in Final Jeopardy. On the other hand, for Holzhauer's race to end, it only takes one time.

As Sanders says, "It's a bit like projecting how many months will go by before a lightning strikes a building. We can get a good projection with good statistical properties. However, the statistics provide no guarantee as to when this low probability event will occur. "