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The future that the government of Mauricio Macri and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) see for the Argentine economy moves away more and more from expectations and banks private consultants who show a less optimistic scenario .
The gap growing among the official forecasts and analysts especially in the estimates of c inflation and financing needs is one of the main reasons that explain the punished prices of Argentine assets.
The extra performance that they require investors own Argentine bonds against those of the US Treasury. increased by almost 100 basis points since the agreement with the IMF was reached on June 7, according to the EMBI index of JPMorgan.
"The market does not completely convince the financial program" of the government according to Marcos Buscaglia, founding partner of Alberdi Partners, in an interview with the Bloomberg agency. The renewal of his short-term bills and the political margin that the executive may have before the 2019 elections are placed among the major concerns he said.
Analysts also ] balanced its expectation of GDP growth for 2018 and projected a advance of 0.5% according to the central bank anticipation survey of July 3, against 1.3% the previous month
This week the Ministry of Finance also decided to reduce its estimates to 0.5%, compared with 1% July 4, when presenting advances from the national budget
But in recent weeks, some consultants began to anticipate a contraction for 2018. Orlando Ferreres provides a fall from the economy by 1% . The consultant Eco / Go, for his part, estimates a decrease of by 0.5%, and Elypsis growth zero.
"To grow in 2018, as the government predicts, Argentina must stabilize in the third quarter and recover in the fourth" said Federico Furiase, director of Eco / Go, at the news agency. "We estimate that it is only going to stabilize in the fourth quarter"
The Dollars Needed for 2019
Cambiemos Government Must Face Payments Due and Interest on Debt near 25 billion dollars in 2019, and primary deficit of 7,400 million dollars according to the minister of Hacienda, Nicolás Dujovne in a presentation to foreign investors at the beginning of this month. According to the official, it will be necessary to issue debts for $ 15,300 million on the local market and abroad.
However, these estimates official differs a lot of some private calculations. In the consultation ACM estimates that, in an optimistic scenario in which the Treasury will renew all the Letes, will have to obtain 18.750 million dollars on the markets for cover their need for funding next year
In Ricardo Arriazu and Associates calculate n that will require u $ s25 000
Consultatio for its part, estimates that the government must issue a debt of at least 20 billion US dollars . The lack of renewal of the Letes, certain macroeconomic assumptions on the activity and the exchange rate and the calculation of the deficit would force the Treasury to seek additional resources that are not envisaged today, said the strategist of José Manuel José Echagíèe
What will happen to inflation
The Prediction of the Central Bank "a deceleration of inflation of July ", explicitly, in his last two announcements of monetary policy. The entity headed by Luis Caputo has estimated "a growing reduction as we move away from the price shock of the last few weeks" and "an expected average inflation between July and September of less than 2% per month."
And President Macri he came to promise at a press conference in the Quinta de Olivos that inflation "will fall more than 10 points" in 2019.
Inflation [19659002] for this year at correlated with the IMF is the 29%, although the commitment establishes a "special consultation with the board of directors" in the event that the price rise exceeds 32%.
For the market, however, the average monthly inflation of the third According to the most recent survey of the Central Bank, the rate will be 2.2%. BBVA estimates that "in the coming months will see an acceleration of inflation" and that the year will end at 32%, according to the economist in Head of the bank, Gloria Sorensen, in a
Bank of America Merrill Lynch increased its projection on the price increase from this year to 31% against Previous 27%, while the consultant ] Elypsis now expects to 32% compared to the previous 31%.
"I do not see a good way to inflation" said Daphne Wlasek, macro strategist at XP Investments . They have recently revised upwards their inflation estimates from 29% to 32% "for the best scenario, based on the latest observed data," he said. This implies a stable exchange rate towards the end of the year and a moderate recovery in the fourth quarter.
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