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Copper continues to suffer from the trade war between the United States (US) and China. On Friday, the price of red metal fell for the fifth time in a row and ended the week down 2.5% after closing US $ 2,796 per pound according to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco). ] Jorge Estrella, central director of economic studies of Central Reserve Bank (BCR ), estimated that this price decrease, as well as that of zinc, reflects "somewhat exaggerated market reactions".
"When one sees the hard data, Chinese imports of concentrated copper rose to double digits in June, which is not compatible with this copper evolution [precio del]. There are investors who are in noncommercial positions that before an event or a negative news they start selling their positions, "explained Estrella.
In this sense, he added that investment houses are waiting for copper to come back at prices closer to US $ 3 per pound. three months ", although entities such as Goldman Sachs slightly revised their projections downward.
"We are waiting this very graphic short-term adjustment, which we have seen – the copper price has fallen by almost 15% so far this year, conversely We consider that it is an adjustment that is out of the fundamentals ", remarked the executive.
THE IMPACT
Estrella, trade war and greater financial volatility generated movements in the markets emerging markets, and the fall in the price of copper has had a "strong effect" on the Lima (BVL), where the main shares are mining.
Sin em Bargo said that in the current episode "economies with a high level of international reserves and current low deficits, such as Peru, have not been significantly affected."
He also said that mining investments in the country should not be seen affected by the current outlook, since the market believes that this fall in price "is an exaggerated reaction and when it comes down to fundamentals the price should recover . "
Be that as it may, he said that the price of metal in the United States 3 dollars per pound and even with a price of 2.80 dollars, most of the Peruvian mines are profitable
" Unlike Chile, the operating cost of any mine here is much lower than that of any Chilean mine.Therefore, a reduction in the price of copper will affect them more than which would affect us, "said Estrella.
As to whether Peruvian exports would be affected by the trade war, he said that he is still very It is premature to make calculations on what will happen without the current movement.
"We need to see whether this impact will be permanent or transient, and international market analysts find that this impact will be transitory and it would be alarmist to say how much we expect to lose value from exports," he said. said.
Meanwhile, he pointed out that even with the reduction in the price of copper "Despite this price adjustment, I believe that the economy shows strong macroeconomic fundamentals on the external side," he said. said.
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