Economists believe that there is little chance that 2018 will end with a positive GDP

That the second and third quarters will be bad in the evolution of the economy, there is no doubt among the consultants and even the government recognizes it. The effect of drought and the exchange rate will hit outright and leave negative records. The hope is set in the last quarter, so the statistical drag helps the year 2019 to post positive periods and the following year begins to recover.

However, the challenge for 2018 will end with an evolution in positive territory is high. Indeed, to achieve the 0.4% growth inscribed in the letter of intent with the International Monetary Fund, the economy is expected to grow by an average of 0.3% per month from June to the end of the year. # 39; year. "Difficult to achieve, we will have negative growth for 2018," said Santiago López Alfaro, of Delphos Investment.

Among the optimistic forecasts, that of CyT Asesores. "For us, the economy is expected to grow by 0.3% this year, which implies quarterly growth in the fourth quarter compared to the third, the key is the wheat harvest and the financial situation is stabilizing," said Maria Castiglione. For 2019, they expect a GDP increase between 2.5% and 3%, still higher than the last official estimate.

The government expects that this year, after two quarters of recession, the economy will result in growth of around 0.5% and 0.6% and, that, in 2019, rebound to 1.9%, according to the Secretary of Economic Policy, Guido Sandleris. Rodrigo Álvarez, of Analytica, said the real exchange rate correction "would generate the deepest recession since 2009, due to the configuration of the macroeconomic variables and the conditioning of the economic policy imposed by the government and / or the IMF. the combination of statistical and seasonal factors would imply that annual data "look" better than other similar events ". Expect GDP contraction of 0.8% in 2018 and an increase of 0.2% in 2019.

For Miguel Zielonka of EconViews, the last quarter will also begin to show a slight improvement of 0.2% from the previous quarter. "If the fourth quarter is positive, it would be barely," he said. However, by 2018, they estimate it will close in a 0.5% decline and 1.5% will increase next year. The reasons? "On the ground, an improvement in the real wage for the opening of parities and investments in PPP, where the private sector replaces the public sector," he explained. Also Melisa Sala of LCG has identified that the harvest will help, improving real wages and a recovery of exports.

In ACM believe that this year, the economy will grow 0.4% as a cap, "with a fourth quarter barely in seasonally adjusted terms," ​​said Jorge Neyro, but it will depend "that the government can lower interest rates and the good harvest is good." For 2019, they expect a GDP growth of 1.4%, year when the fiscal policy will remain contractual, consumption should increase slightly , the soy harvest will return to a normal level, and assuming that there are no new financial shocks and that the government meets the objectives with the IMF. "

Juan Ignacio Paolicchi of EcoGo and Gabriel Caamaño Gómez both believe that the last quarter of the year, the economy could stabilize, stop falling." You still can not get out of zigzag, "Paolicchi described, about years of growth followed by a fall.For 2019, he argues that the evolution will depend on the opposite trend of the capital account.

Martín Alfie, from Radar, argued that "there is not much room to recover in the last quarter. You have to see from the supply side that you are spending with the wheat crop, which according to them will be very good. This would allow, at least in accounting, to observe some stabilization. But we see that it is difficult to be a growth. "