[ad_1]
The impact of the trade war between the United States and China could undermine Peruvian exports. According to Cesar Fuentes, director of Esan's Master of Public Management, the drop in the price of metals, and in particular copper and gold, could generate a reduction of US $ 2,000 million of our exports on the period 2018-2019, that is to say nearly 1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
"The metals market anticipates that it will be long-term, that China's growth will decline and that the manufacturing and construction sectors will be affected. these prices, the effect would be a loss of US $ 2,000 million higher in (Peruvian) exports, "said Fuentes.
Expectations downward
He explained that the Ministry of Finance, Economics and Finance (MEF) The Central Reserve Bank (BCR) expected the price of copper to remain above $ 3 per pound for this year, but the value of the metal fell by 15% in one month, from US $ 3.32 per pound on June 8 to US $ 2.82 per pound on July 6. Given the lower prices, Fuentes said that an adequate response would be required. To increase the volume of production to maintain income levels, however, this does not seem to be the case in Peru
"If you have the same volume (of copper production) and you have a lower price This can affect your tax collection by charging less income tax. from mines in production until 2020. We have a gap of three years that will have an impact on the Tax Fund, "says Fuentes
Falling Revenue
For the economist, the MEF and the BCR must make an adjustment to lowering its tax recovery estimates for the coming months. That would be the budget for 2019, said Fuentes, the one who is most affected, because the state coffers would have between 300 and 400 million US dollars less, product of the trade war.
"There is also a mining cannon The tax impact will not only be seen in the National Fiscal Fund, but also many of these mining projects contribute to regional and local funds, the effect is great" commented the specialist.
Delays
The Deputy Minister of Mines, Miguel Incháustegui, hopes that the trade war will not delay the expansion of the Quellaveco copper project by the Anglo-American mining company, whose total investment is raising to 4,800 million US dollars. "19659002" He told us that they were seriously evaluating this decision, and I hope that the turmoil caused by the trade war will not delay them, "said Incháustegui to Bloomberg
. Expansion, the Quellaveco project will arrive aa to produce up to 225 thousand metric tons (MTF) of copper a year, a significant amount for copper production in the country.
"To date, we have no We have received no news confirming that (the beginning of Quellaveco). We hope that the news will arrive soon, as this will strengthen the investment environment in Peru, "said Minister Incháustegui in
in figures
2.4 million
Metric fine metric tons (MTF) of copper produced in Peru during the year 2017.
79%
Peruvian exports of 2016 were mineral products, according to OEC.
Deputy Minister Vásquez says there will be no big impact
- Deputy Foreign Minister Edgar Vásquez said the trade war between the United States and China would have little impact on the Peruvian economy due to the diversification of our trade agreements.
- Significantly, our two destinations, through free trade agreements, and our products ", has declared Vásquez.
- He also pointed out that Peruvian exports to China increased from January to July by 17.7%. It is estimated that US $ 50 billion will be exceeded this year. "Bilateral trade with China is accelerating rapidly," said the deputy minister.
You might be interested
[ad_2]
Source link
