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The clashes, demonstrations and more than 280 deaths due to the wave of violence that intensified in Nicaragua over the last three months are the image of an institutional crisis who accompanied the area for a while. 19659002] The socio-political scenario has completely changed, and with it a series of questions are opened on what was the beginning of the conflict, how this point was reached, and inevitably future expectations.
According to specialists who spoke with La Nación of Argentina the contract that maintained the president Daniel Ortega with the Nicaraguan company was broken from the 5% reduction in pensions and now the photograph of the country is pessimistic: it is a situation "against the clock" "
1. The detonator:
Julieta Rostica, sociologist, master in Latin American studies and assistant researcher at Conicet, has explained that the reform of the pension system was a kick that triggered a series of protests that took place after April 18, but "which unveiled the pot of another series of conflicts that had been expressed so "
In the same vein, Paulo Abrão, executive secretary of the Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), has identified the reform of the retreat, the fire of the Indio Maíz Reserve, and the demand for universe autonomy as the explicit detonators that generated the rift between the government and part of Nicaraguan society. But he clarified:
"All this has a background when the constitution was changed to allow indefinite reelection and when Ortega presented himself as a presidential candidate and his wife as Vice-President, since part of the society questions the veracity and credibility of the election result.
2. A Repeated Story:
Daniel Ortega had his first term between 1979 and 1990, product of the Sandinista revolution that fought the dictatorship of Somoza and took over power in 2007 election means , who followed two others until the day of the date. But during this process, the Nicaraguan leader began to be accused of manipulating the elections and exercising control over justice, the legislature and the media.
Social discontent was heightened by the desire to establish a "family dictatorship" with his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo.Most likely, this is one of the critics who resonate most strongly within the opposition, which accuses the president of "repeating the story" of Somoza, which was characterized by the imposition of an oppressive family dynasty.
The personalism surrounding the figure of Ortega and his wife grew in the region in a way that some Nicaraguans chose to call them "the presidential couple."
On the electoral process and its shortcomings, Rostica stated that With a set of reforms that began to emerge The opposition of 2008 also disappeared in Nicaragua So that the Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) remained without legal status until 39 today. "There is always the discussion ion on the degree of abstention, ie participation in the last elections of 2016. "
3. Broken Pact:
Political instability, largely associated with doubts about electoral transparency and the lack of partisan representation, has remained in time.
"They have resigned from political stability for change in macroeconomic capacity and some economic growth and a level of social benefits," said Bruno Binetti, associate researcher at the Center for Public Policy Analysis Inter-American Dialogue
While some Nicaraguans speak of a "sleepy" people, Rostica tolerance to positive indicators in literacy and poverty.
"There can be no denying the recognition and l & # 39; 39, expansion of social rights, and in perspective, compared to countries of the northern triangle [Guatemala, Honduras, y El Salvador] those with higher rates of homicides and violence, Nicaragua managed to control these rate. "
But the researcher of Conicet specifies that such indicators, which contained social conflicts, were negatively affected by the crisis that was going on Venezuela because by maintaining a close alliance with the country, it was not the only way to go about it. impact on Nicaragua directly affected the population.Of course, the breach of the pact can not be explained without taking into account mainly the escalation of violence that has occurred during the three months, as well as mass demonstrations.
"When the demonstration process unfolded, the government reacted with its traditional position of incorporating Sandinista crowds, who are in charge of the intimidation of the people and although he worked several times, this time the civil reaction was very strong, which generated a disproportionate counterattack on the part of the government, "Abrão analysis, Regarding relates to the Participation of paramilitary and paramilitary forces
People started to protect themselves by creating barricades which multiplied and students began to occupy at least three universities. Among them, the National Autonomous University of Nicaragua (UNAN), the last coup that was disabled last Friday after a violent operation of the Sandinista shock forces. In the midst of the request of the president of Nicaragua for the "peace" and the "reconciliation" of the country, the expulsion became a pitched battle.
4. The roles of the Church and the international community:
The consequences of the confrontation have not only increased the number of deaths, but also the participation of the Church as a mediator in the conflict. The headquarters of the UNAN students was transferred to the Divina Misericordia parish, which, given its proximity to the university, was chosen as a refuge for more than 200 people who barricaded themselves in the chapel, in the custody of two priests. The conflict lasted all night and left two dead, four missing and several wounded, some seriously.
This is the mediation of Nicaraguan Cardinal Leopoldo Brenes and Apostolic Nuncio Stanislaw Sommertag who prevented the growth of many victims. However, although the church was responsible for moving and transferring the young people to the chapel, it was not able to guarantee the well-being of all, as many of them are afraid to be persecuted, tortured or killed.
Although the church was institutionally fairly close to Ortega, the situation became untenable when paramilitary forces began attacking the parishes ruthlessly, and recent changes in leadership have made It is the only institutional counterweight from the outside ".
The denunciations of "disappeared", the increase in the number of victims in demonstrations and the confrontation with the Church are some of the warning signs that have increased the concern and participation of the international community to the conflict. The OAS and the UN are currently discussing on the basis of the final report presented by the IACHR on the situation in Nicaragua and on the possibility of advancing the elections or restoring a dialogue.
5 All or nothing:
According to Binetti, the Ortega regime is increasingly isolated. Even the businessmen dropped their hand, even the Sandinistas of their life did not accompany him, it was thought that he had the perfect dictatorship, which had reinvented himself after passing from there. 39, a revolutionary leader to a pragmatic leader, associated with businessmen. but he exploded while in the air, he did not think that there was so much desire to live in a democracy, "he said.
He clarified that in this case, Ortega and Murillo "play all or nothing" contexts between the last time the Nicaraguan president left office and now, on this occasion, the Sandinista leader left before a possible epidemic, with free elections and "a certain legitimacy" In addition, he pointed out that the international margin is an important factor to take into account, since today Nicaragua has a finite external financing capacity.
For the Executive Secretary of the IACHR "photograph The current situation in the region is pessimistic "and the advancement of elections will not be a point on the agenda yet." The state's institutions of the country have aged in three months because they were not able to r meet the new requirements. "
However, Abrão argued that the Agenda should be preceded by electoral reform to allow these young groups to participate actively. in the future of Nicaraguan politics, from the institutional point of view. Meanwhile, Rostica said the anticipation of the elections would not resolve the conflict and stressed the importance for the Nicaraguan government to restore governance without outside intervention.
"What is needed is a series of transformations at the institutional level, a kind of creative action by the same government that legitimizes the current democracy of Nicaragua ," he concluded:
6. The mirror of Venezuela:
As social demands and the escalation of violence intensified, the crisis intensified. in Nicaragua with a series of analyzes comparing the situation with that of Venezuela .In both cases the demonstrations broke out in April, and although they present a story with different characteristics, they demanded the exit of the power of Nicolás Maduro ( Venezuela ) and Daniel Ortega (19459004) Nicaragua ), by the resignation or the
In addition, the opponents in both countries indicate in Maduro e t Ortega have established a dictatorship, marked by corruption and control of the powers of the state, punctually judicial and electoral. But the speed with which they triggered the latest events Nicaragua makes a clear difference. In four months of demonstrations in Venezuela there were about 125 dead; while the Nicaraguan case already exceeds 280 in three months.
Binetti pointed out that the case also differs because "Ortega has no oil", which could generate internal cracks and shorten the times of the crisis. "This is not Venezuela they do not have the resources to guarantee the loyalty of the army when the moment of the break arrives."
In Nicaragua the support of the police and the army, since clashes are usually led by parapoliciales and paramilitary forces that we do not yet know exactly their origin. These are the reasons for suspecting a fracture within the security forces themselves.
On the other hand, the opposition in Nicaragua still does not have a clear leadership figure and the identity of the protesters is associated with a public outrage, mainly incarnated by young students. In this sense, Binetti and Abrão both rejected an imminent armed social escalation by the citizens, although all those consulted agreed that the country scenario was still confused and pessimistic.
Source: The Nación de Argentina (GDA) [19659039]
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