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After several months of tension in the commercial field, the two largest economies in the world, United States and China are one step away from the confrontation of tariffs that generated uncertainty on a global scale.
Thursday, an American representative of commerce. confirmed to Bloomberg by e-mail that President Donald Trump will impose additional duties of 25% on Chinese products for 34 billion US dollars at midnight on Friday, July 6th.
This first round is a portion of a total of US $ 50,000 million that will be solicited to load Chinese imports. A second round would do the same for an additional $ 16,000 million in tariffs that is still under evaluation.
The Trump administration noted that tariff measures reported more than 800 goods from the Asian giant including industrial machinery, medical devices and auto parts.
line, USA He assured that these tariffs are necessary for China to abandon unfair practices – like the theft of intellectual property, according to the US country – and that it will also reinforce the fact that US companies develop valuable technology.
It was left behind: the authorities of the Asian giant said that if the Trump government responded to its threats, they would react by applying tariffs to US products whose estimated impact would be $ 30 billion. US dollars
. As soybeans, which would hit the US agricultural industry hard
However, the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, Gao Feng, said that his country "will never fire the first shot, but it will be forced to retaliate "in the tariff battle.
"The United States will open fire on everyone and also open fire on itself," he warned. Feng
In addition, if the Trump administration decides to go ahead with the second round of tariff of 16 billion US dollars of Chinese products, China has promised retaliation against the products Americans of equal value.
In the current context, the price of the dollar has risen and the price of copper has undergone its ninth consecutive decline [ see infographic ]. Ricardo Bustamante, an investment analyst at Capitaria, told Diario Financiero de Chile that the main factor behind the decline in red metal is precisely the context of trade tensions.
Meanwhile, The New York Times (NYT) newspaper noted that the dispute between the two economies is expected to affect supply chains globally, which would increase costs for businesses and consumers and would hurt the global stock markets. In fact, Chinese equities have been hit hard in recent weeks
In this sense, the NYT has pointed out that tariffs on China would affect more of the products and could potentially further harm US companies [ForexamplecompaniessuchasHuscoInternationalhavesocialjurisdictionsinthestateofWisconsinthatmakeuppartsoftheworldwhileGeneralGeneralMotorsCaterpillarandJohnDeerehavetofaceuptoa25%increase
Austin Ramirez, executive director of Husco International, told NYT that the increase would immediately put him on the backs of other US manufacturers. disadvantaged compared to their competitors abroad.
For some economists consulted by CNN Money, the impact on both economies will be less if tariffs stop there. But Trump, true to his style, warned that if China retaliates against US measures, its administration will respond by tariffs of up to 400 billion US dollars Chinese products; Scott Kennedy, director of the Chinese Economy and Commerce Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNN that Trump 's administration' s enthusiasm for the conflict "s". will erode as the situation deteriorates ". The economic pain and political consequences of a trade war are starting to settle. At that point, the United States will be more interested in the negotiations, and the Chinese side will also want to come to the table.
IMPACT IN PERU
Juan Carlos Mathews, Director General of the USIL Graduate School and Vice President of the WTC Peru, declared El Comercio that in the face of the impact of a trade war, our country has the advantage of having a more diversified trading structure than most countries in various parts of the world ", so the tensions would not have a very significant impact on the country's foreign trade
"When something happens between the United States and China is a global problem. But the advantage of Peru is a very diversified commercial structure, where 25% go to North America, 25% to Europe, 25% to Asia and 25% to Latin America. And, on the other hand, we have 19 FTAs (free trade agreements), including one with the United States.
Mathews has not denied that for some sectors, focused on exporting to both economies, the impact will be much greater if the US economy and the US China is retracting, since both countries will demand But its opinion is that commercial diversification will allow the blow to be less severe on the economy.
Meanwhile, Rafael Zacnich, head of economic studies at ComexPerú, said the impact of the trade war on Peru This will depend mostly on how the tariff measures are hitting the Chinese economy and American, and only this will be seen in the medium or long term.
"If protectionism causes its economies to lose its momentum, it is obvious that it will affect the trade route because the United States and China account for more than 40% of our exports. but not in the short term, "he said.
Like Mathews, Zacnich pointed out that Peru has a fairly diversified export structure, but cautioned that we have to keep in mind that a large part of our exports to those countries.
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