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Any week over .500 is a good week to pick all NFL games, so I guess I can’t complain about my 7-6-1 against last week’s spread mark. But I really don’t feel good. As we head into Thanksgiving, I’d like to think I have a good grasp of this NFL season, but there are weeks that make you think I don’t.
The 7-6-1 increased my season ATS record to 75-69-2. I went 9-5 straight to raise my record to 98-47-1. Not bad.
What I didn’t like last week was going 2-4 with my best bets on the Pick Six podcast. It’s my second losing week of the year, and it took my overall rating down to 37-22-1, which is still pretty good but still leaves a bad taste in my mouth because of last week.
So let’s get back on track with a winning record in all three areas for week 11.
The Cardinals beat the Seahawks in overtime a few weeks ago when Russell Wilson returned him three times. The Seattle defense has some major issues, which is why I think Kyler Murray can win a road game with high scores. Arizona’s defense is a bit better, and that’s the difference.
To choose: Cardinals 34, Seahawks 31
Last Chances:
Football team -1
It has to be considered the dog game of the day. Both teams now have major problems. The Bengals looked bad on offense last week, but Washington wasn’t good on defense. It changes here. Their front will attack Joe Burrow and cause some turnovers that make the difference.
To choose: Washington 23, Bengals 17
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The Saints will have Jameis Winston at quarterback with Drew Brees with broken ribs. He should be good against poor Atlanta defense. The Falcons have come to life on offense in recent weeks, and it should be in this one. Look for lots of points and a close game won by the Saints and Winston.
To choose: Saints 31, Falcons 30
Last Chances:
Steelers -10
The Jaguars have played against the Steelers in their history. This will not be the case here. The Steelers are rolling and started the attack last week. The pass rush will be too much for Jake Luton on the other side of the ball. The Steelers are winning big.
To choose: Steelers 31, Jaguars 17
The Texans are pretty much done, while the Patriots won back-to-back wins to get back on track and in the playoff. The Patriots have dominated the Texans in this series and I think they will continue that here. New England will once again control the ball on the ground to win a tough physical game.
To choose: Patriots 24, Texans 20
The Eagles are playing a second straight road game and didn’t look good last week against the Giants. The Browns won a close game in bad weather last week against the Texans by running the ball well. They’ll try to make it in this one, but I think the Eagles will be up to the challenge. The Philadelphia offensive will also get back on track. The Eagles will win a close.
To choose: Eagles 26, Browns 21
The Panthers could be without Teddy Bridgewater, which means PJ Walker could start. Lions quarterback Matt Stafford is also stoned, but he should be playing. Both defenses have been having issues lately which could mean a high scoring game. It’s a tough question to follow because of the quarterback issues, but I’ll go with the Panthers to win it at home – even if it’s Walker at the quarterback.
To choose: Panthers 33, Lions 28
The Ravens have some offensive issues, but the best thing to resolve is this Tennessee defense. The Titans upset the Ravens in the playoffs last year, but this Titans side have major defensive issues. The Ravens had run defense issues last week against the Patriots, which isn’t a good thing against Derrick Henry. But I think they’re getting back on track in this area in this one. The Ravens prevail behind a good offensive performance.
To choose: Ravens 31, Titans 24
Last Chances:
Chargers -8.5
The Jets come out of a bye in search of their first victory. They showed some life last time around against the Patriots. Sam Darnold is out again, which means more of Joe Flacco. The Chargers have played well at times but can’t seem to win games. That will change against the Jets. Justin Herbert will have a great day after wrestling last week against Miami.
To choose: Chargers 31, Jets 20
Last Chances:
Dolphins -3.5
It’s a long journey for a hot Miami team. The Broncos were bad last week and might not have Drew Lock this week. The Miami defense has made some headway and the Dolphins beat Arizona last time on the road. That defense will make a difference here again – it doesn’t matter who plays the quarterback. The dolphins take it.
To choose: Dolphins 27, Broncos 23
The Vikings won three straight wins to get back into competition. The Cowboys are doing a bye, while the Vikings played Monday night. The Dallas defense has continued to be a problem and the offense is limited without Dak Prescott. The Vikings’ defense has played much better in the last three games, and they will play well here again. Minnesota will win a fourth straight game.
To choose: Vikings 23, Cowboys 14
The Colts will have 10 days to rest after a Thursday night game last week, while the Packers come away lifeless against the Jaguars. Watching Aaron Rodgers against the Indianapolis defense will be the treat here. I think he had a good day as the Packers win a tough game on the road.
To choose: Packers 27, Colts 21
The Raiders beat the Chiefs earlier this season in a high-scoring game. The Chiefs seemed to have fixed things since then, but the Las Vegas defense has made some headway as well. The Raiders won’t win this time around, but they will stay close. Patrick Mahomes will continue his MVP push with a big game.
To choose: Chiefs 31, Raiders 27
Last Chances:
Buccaneers -3.5
It’s another long trip for the Rams, which has been an early season trend. The last trip east was three weeks ago when they were blown away by Miami. They won’t be blown away here with the defense holding them back. Aaron Donald will make Tom Brady uncomfortable. Tampa Bay wins, but it’s razor sharp.
To choose: Bucs 24, Rams 23
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