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PFF picks total of wins in 2019
By Eric Eager and George Chahrouri & bullet;
May 1, 2019
It is the time of year; optimism reigns in the NFL. After an NFL draft that led us 3-0-1 (+4.3) on props last week and a 2018 season where we went 3-2 on total print wins (+2, 9), we are ready to offer some recommendations. for the 2019 season. A recommendation comes from AFC South, where the team that finished last in the division in each of the last eight seasons except one has one of the quarterback / coach combinations the more intriguing of the NFL, with previous successes. Defensive coordinator armed with a class project comprising three defensive backs and the best linebacker of the cover in his class.
The second recommendation is more intuitive, as the NFC's Eastern Division championship hosted by the Dallas Cowboys last season was one of the noisiest feats of the 2018 NFL season. Even win 10 games – obtained only by playing their starters in a meaningless match for the 17th week at Meadowlands – a match won thanks to a miraculous pass from Dak Prescott to Cole Beasley (currently in Buffalo), followed by a conversion from two points.
So, without further ado, some victories for the 2019 season.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers FROM 6.5 (+110)
Point (Eric Eager): It will probably be difficult for people who bet on Tampa last season, scoring a 2-0 start and moaning to finish 5-11 with good quarterback controversy resulting from the suspension of Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick's YOLO Weeks 1. -3, followed by a top-down game from each player.
Dirk Koetter left, Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles. Ariens' attack is perfect for Jameis Winston, a player who led the league as a percentage of positive returns (32.3%). A player with these cards in his deck has always flourished in the Arians pattern. For example, Carson Palmer, in his MVP-level 2015 season, led the entire league with a positive projection rate of 33.2%. We know this positively ranked projection rate is not as stable as the projection rate ranked negatively, but these anecdotes give us a glimpse of the fit. To emerge in a South NFC that has always kept the Bucs at arm's length, a series of persistent positive games will be needed, and although it is difficult to predict when this will happen, it is fair to say that, unlike quarters with higher floors and lower ceilings, Jameis has the merchandise.
We currently have the Bucs winning about 7.2 games, exceeding 6.5 victories in 63% of the cases, making this game profitable until chances become -160 or so. Another reason we value this choice is the quality of their defense, a defense ranked among the last three in the league in terms of the EPA. They left Kwon Alexander, a lower-level replacement player in a limited action a season ago, and replaced it with the fifth overall pick, Devin White, widely considered the repechage's best coverage linebacker. They then acquired three defensive backs in their subsequent selections, including the need to compete in a NFC South division including Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. Shaq Barrett has been a good smuggler in the past to Denver in the part-time role. It is hoped that he will play a more full-time role in Bowles' defense.
It seems to me to be a similar piece to the Colts there is a season – An excellent coach, a quarterback with the necessary assets to successfully complete an offense and a defense that can only improve with added value to the position of defensive coordinator.
Counterpoint (George Chahrouri): How good is Dr. Eager optimistic? He compares Jameis Winston to Andrew Luck, who ranks 21st and 19th respectively in the ranks of the clean pocket and 32nd in the category of incredible throws. Arians is no stranger to the ability to create a good quarterback, but let's not forget that for every 2015 season of Carson Palmer with an impressive 9.0% throwing rate, there was a year 2017 with a rate of 3.1% of the highest ranked throws of the PFF (NFL average is 4.4). This level of variance, combined with a draft defense-oriented (and whose merit is large given the coverage and strong choices), leaves the offensive line a bit in the air with two tackles ranked in the years 40 last season.
Dallas Cowboys UNDER 9 (-105)
Point (GC): The Cooper's trade was a victory, right? While the Cowboy Nation will rush to say yes, it's worth asking how much a deal is winning when it generates new investments in a team for which nine wins seem very uncertain. I will not go into this counterfactual scenario (although a world with Kyler and Lincoln probably exists). Instead, let's focus on how the current Cowboys are doing in our 2019 simulation. In 56% of the simulations, they have fewer than nine wins, while they grow exactly with nine in 18% of the time. seasons. If I chose a number for their total total of wins, I would have thought that Vegas might have been set at 8.5, but as I said, everyone believes that Cooper is the savior which Dallas would need after his victory against a Seahawks team. this played with a quarter handcuffed (just look at how many times he threw the ball).
There are two or three good reasons to love the submarine. First of all, the Cowboys won the division, which means they get a good schedule for first place and do not buy a first-round player like the rest of the division (some more than one time). Second, there is Dak Prescott's dilemma (I DO NOT HATE DAK). Dak's rookie season was fantastic and he took advantage of an almost impenetrable offensive line. Tyron Smith has not been quite to his advantage in the last two seasons, while La'el Collins gave 46 strikes to the right tackle (only Sam Tevi allowed more). Prescott's pocket presence did not serve him either. We awarded 15 bags from the highest in the league at Prescott. When the ball comes out, accuracy remains a problem; the most consistent measures of accuracy are to avoid jets that are impossible to capture (27th rank) and to perform accurate throws to open (more than one step of separation) the receivers (31st out of 35). Prescott is ranked 18th in a loose pocket, eclipsing nine wins in the middle of the quarter, which is not easy.
This brings me to the accessory reasons. The Cowboys won 10 games last season thanks to a timely play in the red zone, ranking fifth in the EPA per game allowed in the third trials in the red zone. To bet on a repetition of this kind of thing is not so easy. The hedge unit is certainly strong, but you simply can not be very sure that the hedge remains solid. The last and least important is the influx of talent among rivals. Although the Giants needed more than three playoffs for their new quarter, they did well to gain talent throughout the repechage, while the Redskins stole the best quarterback at 15 and the Eagles have secured their offensive line by adding a playmaker for Carson. Wentz in JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The Cowboys could be as good as they were last year and reach a maximum of 8-8.
Counterpoint (EE): I've pulled the short straw here, but as in all situations, there are reasons to think on the other side of the bet. For example, if Dallas won his division there is a season, it's not like his schedule was the hardest in the world (17 PFFELO). Also, although they focus in many ways on the bad things (operation, for example) and that the player who occupies the most important position in the league is an average player; at best, the Cowboys have a substantial talent in their alignment. Byron Jones, Demarcus Lawrence, Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith all rank among the top six players in their WAR position, while their offensive lineup still has substantial talent both inside and out. Attack in Tyron Smith.
If the Cowboys' defense does not regress and Prescott has the excellent infrastructure he had in 2016, the Cowboys may again become a threat to NFC East. Much of this bet is an implicit purchase on Washington and / or New York to play better than their market suggests (6.5 and 6 respectively), but it also supports the Philadelphia Eagles as they attempt to resume their place at NFC East. With two-quarters rookies likely to emerge in the nation's capital and in the Big Apple, the lack of experience on the part of the signal in the division could allow the Cowboys to win enough victories to make the task more difficult, but I'm with George – attenuates the noise of the NFC of last year. Is.
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