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The effectiveness of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine may drop to 83.7% within four to six months after receiving the second dose of its vaccine. This is the latest indication that vaccine-induced immunity to the virus may decline and some kind of boost may be needed in the future.
New research released Wednesday as a pre-publication indicates that Pfizer Inc. PFE,
shot offers 96.2% protection during the first two months, 90.1% effectiveness between the second and fourth month and between 83.7% protection during the fourth, fifth and six months.
“We will need a booster eight to 12 months from the second dose,” Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said Wednesday, according to a FactSet transcript of the company’s second quarter earnings call.
The drugmaker has advocated for the booster shots, citing limited data from its own clinical research and real-world data from Israel, where Pfizer’s vaccine is the predominant vaccine in circulation.
“We are seeing, after six to eight months, a more rapid decrease in infections and mild to moderate symptoms,” said Dr Mikhail Dolsten, chief scientific officer of Pfizer, on the call. “These are probably wholly, or to a large extent, dependent on the antibodies and the titer drop we alluded to. If you increase it, you may have a good chance of reversing that decrease. “
Still, there is no simple black-and-white answer as to whether booster shots are needed right now.
First, there is no definitive data. The new data from Pfizer is the most detailed yet, although the company plans to submit clinical data for a third dose to the Food and Drug Administration in early August.
When speaking to investors this week, company officials attributed the decline in immunity levels in Israel to the much earlier vaccination campaign that took place there. (In fact, Israel announcement On Thursday a third dose will now be available for people at least 60 years old.) Pfizer also mentioned that there will be data in a few months from the UK, where doses were sometimes spaced out, which indicates “long-lasting protection.”
In addition, we still do not know which people will need to increase their level of protection. Will the entire vaccinated population need a boost? What if the third injections were only needed for the elderly or immunocompromised? What diagnostic test can be used to assess titer levels before giving a booster? How long will it take for all of this to happen?
“While I can’t predict the future with certainty, I wouldn’t be surprised if, like the flu, we would need… to boost our vaccine against COVID,” Dolsten said. “Whether on an annual basis [basis] or based on simple diagnostics that get it boosted at the right time before your risk of infection is high, we need to watch.
Either way, it’s a godsend for Pfizer as the former drug maker takes on its new role as vaccine leader.
Pfizer is expected to generate $ 33.5 billion in COVID-19 vaccine revenue this year, and Wall Street analysts have already incorporated boosters into their financial models for Pfizer and BioNTech SE BNTX,
who developed the vaccine with Pfizer.
“The biggest remaining uncertainty is whether this third boost is just the third dose in a three-vaccine schedule to achieve broad and long-lasting protection or is the first of a periodically (annually) strengthened vaccine,” said SVB Leerink analysts told investors Thursday.
Moderna Inc.RNA,
who developed the other FDA-cleared mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, is also testing booster injections in clinical trials. He was much quieter in his communication around a third shot. The company is expected to share its second quarter results on August 5.
Pfizer stock is up 16.3% year-to-date, while the largest S&P 500 SPX,
gained 17.1%.
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