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Despite delays in official results, it seems likely that Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) or the Pakistan Justice Movement will have a plurality of seats in the Assembly and in Punjab province. Assembly. So what should India expect from a civilian government led by PTI in Pakistan?
In his first speech since the elections, "The Captain", as a cricket player turned politician Khan, has received praise for his man of state as an address where he calls for deepening economic ties with the country. India, highlighting the mutual affection and respect developed tour as a sportsman.
This may seem like the kind of thing that has caused trouble for Sharif with the army, but for the moment it means very little. The effective control of foreign policy, defense and internal security is now firmly entrenched in the hands of the military, and they will not worry until Khan tries to snatch it from them.
However, civil-military tensions intensify. in Sharif's imprisonment are far from over, and could also scramble the ITP. It is not clear which side Khan will be heading, but given the importance of Indo-Pakistan relations in these tensions, the road will be bumpy, whatever happens.
Khan's course of action will probably depend almost entirely on whether Sharif, his daughter Maryam, and their followers in the Muslim League of Pakistan-N (PML-N) quietly go into the night, or transform this in a fight against overthrow. If this happens, we will probably see the same kind of rhetoric about India from a PTI government that we saw during the campaign, creating a much sharper bilateral and regional atmosphere. Minister Khan believes that his public mandate is safe, tensions are likely to develop between him and the chief of staff ("the umpire" in Khan 's words) on how to "get the job done. approach India.
The Punjab turns on itself
Maryam, faced with the bitter choice of years of imprisonment or sidelined with caution in political mediocrity, could rebel in the same way of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and his daughter Benazir after the coup d'etat of General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq in 1977.
but nevertheless the popular father sacrifices himself, and refusing to beg or plead, becoming a shaheed (martyr), whose blessings are one day harvested by his much more liberal daughter. Meanwhile, the rest of Sharif and Maryam could rebel in the same way as Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir after the coup of Gen Zia in 1977. the family acquires at least sympathy awam (the masses) against the oppressive state backed by the military, braving arrests, torture and harassment.
Such a base reaction is particularly likely if the Khan government is inept or unlucky in managing the looming economic crisis in Pakistan. The battle would be bitter and ugly, given the uniform bases of support for both parties in Punjab, and the fact that the differences are often generational, and within the same family networks.
Such a move would be as much against the army as the ITP, in which case Khan will have no choice but to remain in the marriage with the uniforms. The PTI, like the army, would insist that Sharif and other opposition forces such as the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement – or Pashtun Protection Movement – are nothing more than paid Indian agents and interference in Pakistani politics
. made by the ITP in the campaign, and will become more vibrant if the conflict continues. The allegation was not invented by the ITP; the Pakistani army seems very convinced that the economic interests of Sharif in India have placed in the pocket of the Indian establishment. In short, the longer it lasts, the more India will serve as a convenient scapegoat for high-level internal struggles, with unpredictable consequences.
The captain and the referee turn around
If the PML-N does not succeed in gaining steam, it is likely that Khan's legendary self-confidence will reach new heights. With real control over two provinces (including Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa) and the center, the captain would feel empowered to fully exercise his popular mandate.
This would put him squarely in conflict with the silent referee
. This includes relations with the United States (in particular drone operations) and, even more sensitively, counter-terrorism operations of the Pakistani army, to which "Taliban Khan" was fiercely opposed in the past. His forte The captain would feel empowered; this would put him squarely in conflict with the silent referee. Populist nationalism is unlikely to follow the pragmatic – and unpopular – approach of the military since the pivot of General Pervez Musharraf after September 11, 2001.
The Army as long as the institution has evaded the political costs of its inconsistent policies. transferring exclusive responsibility to the men at the top – Musharraf, Zardari, Sharif … and soon Khan. It seems unlikely that a firmly rooted Khan wants to let the army play indefinitely with him a game of "tail-to-tail-on-the-donkey".
Pakistani prime ministers still realize that reducing tension with India is the best way to reduce the political capital of the army.
Unlocking economic gains from growing trade with India is also particularly appealing when great promises have been made to an impatient electorate. Whether it's vegetables, transit trade or the creation of new profitable cartels, there are public and private financial incentives to normalize the relationship faster than the military believes.
And certainly, Khan with an eye on posterity and his own thinking is just the kind of man who could imagine doing the story between the two countries by the charm and strength of Willingness
Finding a Way Forward
be a reconciliation that extends beyond leaders, institutions and peoples. Given the level of paranoia of the Pakistani army about Indian intentions and its grip on policymaking, any advancement of civilian supremacy is a good thing.
But as India has often seen, it is imprudent for civilian leaders, as well-meaning as they are. Just as he did in Afghanistan, India's best long-term hopes are to establish a relationship with the Pakistani people, especially in Punjab, which remains the country's center of gravity .
Nearly 50 million Pakistanis of overwhelming heat, voter list issues, and terrorist attacks say something about how much democracy means to them. The intensification of struggles over the position of the ruling power offers an opportunity for India to provide support, especially if the civil politicians stop fighting each other and focus instead on claiming their constitutional rights and responsibilities.
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