Trump's economic agenda verified by winning democratic elections Inquirer.net

President Donald Trump. AP

WASHINGTON, United States – In the context of a strong economy, Republicans have avoided significant losses in the mid-vote key vote in the United States, but President Trump's economic agenda will be severely limited by democratic advances. .

With a split Congress starting next year and the ongoing 2020 White House race, polarization in Washington means that major economic legislation is highly unlikely, analysts said following national elections that took place Tuesday in the country.

However, Republicans would almost certainly have suffered greater losses without unemployment, rising wages and strong current economic growth, boosted by recent Republican-led tax cuts and a bipartisan stimulus package in the budget. of this year.

Despite the prospect of a partisan stalemate in the new Congress, Wall Street rallied Wednesday as investors put uncertainty on the election behind them.

Analysts said the congressional division meant the new laws were hardly a threat to profits.

"I think the Democrats would certainly be a line of defense against any further tax cuts," said Nancy Vanden Houten, chief economist at Oxford Economics.

"I think we can see stalemate on major things but a chance to reach agreement on a modest infrastructure package," she told AFP.

Republican leaders were preparing for a violent reaction against Trump. Potential losses in the House of Representatives would be well beyond the 23 seats the Democrats needed to seize power.

Some races were still too tight to be recalled early Wednesday, but even with the Democrats who won nearly 30 seats, the result is clearly far from the Republicans' worst fears of losing 40 or more.

Avoid talking about the economy

The solid US economy has probably curbed the Republic's losses.

"It's the economy that keeps Republicans competitive despite Trump. It's a very strange situation, "Gary Jacobson, professor emeritus of political science at the University of California San Diego, told AFP on Tuesday.

Republicans were caught in the crossfire between Trump's unpopularity and the strength of the economy, he said.

"Normally, a president with an economy like the one we have now would have 10 or even 20 more points," said Jacobson. "It is clear that if the economy had not been so good, there would have been a real explosion."

Republicans have largely avoided campaigning on the 2017 tax cuts, which were passed without a single Democrat vote and that many voters considered a gift to the big and the richest .

Even Trump has focused on other issues, including fanning immigration fears to motivate his base in the final days of the campaign.

"We can talk about the economy but the fact is we know how well we are doing with the economy," said Trump during a weekend at a local conference. gathering in Florida. "I want to solve the problems."

Mid-term elections generally do not depend on economic concerns, and a CNN exit poll showed that the economy was the third most important issue for Canadian voters, behind health care and health care. immigration, but before firearms policy.

Democrat candidates have focused on health care, seeking to capitalize on the many unpopular and unsuccessful Republican efforts to repeal the 2010 legislation providing access to affordable health care and protecting people with medical conditions preexisting.

"The economy is too good to be able to talk about it in defense. That's why it was health care, health care, "John Aldrich, professor of political science at Duke University told AFP.

But as the impact of last year's tax cuts diminish and Trump's aggressive pricing policies resonate more and more, as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the US economy should slow down next year.

And Trump – who said the Democrats "would attack our economy" – now has two scapegoats utterly to blame for any slowdown: the Democratic-controlled House and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He attacked repeatedly to increase rates. .

Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics said she was not planning a recession by the time of Trump's reelection in 2020, but that chances are increasing.

"The economy will definitely be more vulnerable in a year," she said.

"I think that by the time the presidential campaign is in full swing, it will definitely be an endangered expansion."

At the same time, the North American Free Trade Agreement recently ratified by Trump – the US-Mexico-Canada agreement – is expected to be voted on in 2019, but Democrats are unlikely to block it. not. / cbb

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