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• Even if the cabinet approves the draft, there are still several steps before it could take effect. The deal needs the approval of the British Parliament, which is far from a certainty. The European Parliament and the bloc’s 27 other member states would also have to approve it.
• A key sticking point is the Irish border, a contentious issue for which there is no easy solution as negotiators try to figure out a way to allow people and goods to pass through without the imposition of border controls.
Predictions and prognostication from the British press
The Daily Mail called it “judgment day,” and the Daily Telegraph a “moment of truth.” The Times of London, meanwhile, wrote that Prime Minister Theresa May had been “accused of betrayal” over her plans for Brexit.
On Wednesday, the British press was dominated by reports of Mrs. May’s draft Brexit deal and speculation about what might happen when her senior ministers meet.
But The Sun, one of the loudest advocates of Brexit, predicted that there would be sound — but not too much fury — from hard-line Brexiteers within Mrs. May’s cabinet.
UK front pages on #Brexit draft deal #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/285rvtzB4H
—
Philip Bromwell (@philipbromwell)
Nov. 13, 2018
The tabloid reported that the most senior pro-Brexit ministers would fall into line when the cabinet meets for what is expected to be a long, pivotal meeting.
But it says that some cabinet resignations from less high-profile cabinet ministers who support Brexit are possible — something that would embarrass Mrs. May, though probably not wreck her leadership.
Those expected to stick by Mrs. May include the influential Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab; Environment Secretary Michael Gove; Transport Secretary Chris Grayling; and the House of Commons leader, Andrea Leadsom. More recent recruits to the Brexit cause — Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Home Secretary Sajid Javid — are also likely to support the prime minister, The Sun’s political editor, Tom Newton Dunn, reported.
“The Sun understands that none of the key players are expected to resign today, with all grudgingly agreeing to go along with her plan, at least for now,” Mr. Newton reported. He was less confident that the international development secretary, Penny Mordaunt, would remain.
The Sun reported that Ms. Mordaunt had asked Mrs. May to suspend collective government responsibility when the deal comes to Parliament. That would allow ministers to vote against government policy, which cabinet ministers normally defend.
Analysts are also watching whether Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary, will resign. — STEPHEN CASTLE
Credit
Andy Rain/EPA, via Shutterstock
Before the prime minister has her say, the backlash begins
Even before the draft Brexit deal was published, or the government had made any public statement to defend it, the backlash was well underway in Parliament, with hard-line Conservatives condemning the plan in statements and television interviews.
The hard-liners argue that the deal would leave Britain subject to European Union rules, but without having any say in making those rules. They are also alarmed that Britain would not have a unilateral right to quit the temporary customs union.
Mrs. May’s former Brexit secretary, David Davis, described the deal on Twitter as “EU domination, imprisonment in the customs union and 2nd class status,” and adding that “Cabinet and all Conservative MPs should stand up, be counted and say no to this capitulation.”
As she left meetings at 10 Downing Street on Wednesday, Ms. Mordaunt refused to answer reporters who asked whether she supported the plan.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, a hard-core Brexit supporter and longtime critic of the government’s negotiating strategy, told the BBC that the proposed deal was “a failure of the government’s negotiating position and a failure to deliver on Brexit.” — STEPHEN CASTLE
Theresa May and her Brexit deal have an Irish problem
The prime minister’s Conservative Party does not have a majority in Parliament, so her government relies on Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which voiced opposition to the deal even before it was made public.
The D.U.P.’s leader, Arlene Foster, made clear in her statement late Tuesday that she was not happy with the emerging deal. She was traveling to London on Wednesday.
Jeffrey Donaldson, a senior D.U.P lawmaker, went further, telling the BBC on Wednesday that what he had heard of the draft Brexit deal “undermines the constitutional and economic integrity” of the United Kingdom, and warning that he was not afraid of precipitating a general election by opposing the plan.
The Conservatives hold 315 seats in the House of Commons, short of the 326 needed for an outright majority, and Mrs. May needs the tacit support of the D.U.P., which has 10 seats and campaigned for Brexit. A majority of Northern Ireland voters opposed it.
The most delicate aspect of the plan is the so-called backstop to prevent physical checks on the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, which will remain in the European Union.
From what is known of the draft, Britain would stay temporarily in a customs union with the European Union until a long-term trade deal is negotiated. But the obligations on Northern Ireland would be deeper, particularly in obeying standards laid down by the European Union’s single market, leading to increased regulatory checks on goods flowing from Britain to Northern Ireland.
That is seen as an almost existential threat by the D.U.P., which wants to remain part of the United Kingdom.
For the D.U.P., voting against Mrs. May’s deal risks precipitating a general election that could bring Jeremy Corbyn, the opposition Labour Party leader, to power. Mr. Corbyn has a history of strong ties to Sinn Fein, which promotes a united Ireland.
The D.U.P. might be less worried about the other possible outcomes of blocking Mrs. May’s plan, such as a no-deal Brexit, and might conclude that this could strengthen ties between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. It might also calculate that another referendum that reversed Brexit and kept the status quo would be less objectionable than Mrs. May’s deal. — STEPHEN CASTLE
A rhetorical about-face from the prime minister
Rest in peace, “no deal is better than a bad deal.” Long live compromise.
Theresa May is not generally seen as a stealthy political operator, but Wednesday marked a sharp reversal of the pledge that has been her Brexit mantra. For nearly two years, she has repeatedly assured the country, in her crisp no-nonsense way, that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain.”
This promise — that she would turn on her heel and walk away rather than compromise Britain’s interests — helped her hold onto the allegiance of hardline Brexiteers in her own party. It projected such optimism and confidence that, in the hours after she first articulated it, the pound rose sharply.
But on Wednesday, it was clear that Mrs. May’s message had been a bluff. It has been replaced by the opposite logic, conveyed in the must urgent terms: A compromise with the European Union — a package of wins and losses — is better than no deal.
Economists and business leaders have warned that an abrupt, “cliff edge” Brexit, without an agreement to take the place of membership, could have disastrous consequences for Britain, including shortages of food and other goods, and sudden price increases. Moderate voices have long urged compromise as the only sane way out of this predicament.
Mrs. May’s rhetorical sleight of hand helped keep hard-liners on board, while conveying to Brussels it should give a little, to prevent a chaotic exit.
But by adopting the language of her party’s euroskeptic right wing for so long, Mrs. May ran the risk of a last-minute explosion.
For Brexiteers, this deal has less to do with practical consequences than with passion and principle. Mrs. May’s adamant words made them bolder. If they feel they have been tricked, she could pay the price now. — ELLEN BARRY
Credit
Andrew Testa for The New York Times
For Brexit, a watery new catchphrase
To the canon of Brexit metaphors — the divorce, the cliff’s edge, the cake-eating — negotiators have added another: the swimming pool.
Inscrutable as it may be, that’s how diplomats in Brussels are describing a crucial piece of the Brexit deal: the decision on how closely Great Britain and Northern Ireland will be yoked to the European market if Britain and the European Union cannot negotiate a long-term trade deal after Brexit, the journalist Robert Peston reported.
This swimming pool has two levels. Northern Ireland would be in the deep end, up to its nose in European regulations. That would keep trading frictionless with Ireland, a country that is staying in the European Union, preventing the return of an Irish border.
But Great Britain would be in the shallow end. It would stay in the European customs union, like Northern Ireland, but escape the single market for goods. That would give it some distance from the bloc’s regulations but still prevent it from striking its own trade deals with non-European countries.
Still with us?
The division between deep and shallow ends of the pool could be a deal-breaker.
It would mean different trading rules within the United Kingdom, and the prospect of a border — however meaningless European negotiators insist it would be — in the Irish Sea. — BENJAMIN MUELLER
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