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China is a formidable opponent. no matter how you look at it. Its economy is the second largest after the United States, with a GDP that is expected to reach $ 42 trillion in a dozen years compared to the US $ 24 trillion annual output. Of course, it is not that simple if we consider the size of their respective populations, the Chinese population, regardless of the rate of population growth during this period, will probably remain four times higher than that of the United States.
Yet, China 's projected annual output of about $ 42 trillion by the year 2030 puts a lot of resources at the disposal of its government to project its economic and political power through trade, commerce and trade. foreign investment and brute military power. Even now, it puts its weight on the Asian region
. Apart from economic growth, a crucial factor that has helped China to project its power has been the decline in American power, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. With the United States distracted in Afghanistan and the Middle East, China is gradually pushing back the limits of its territorial and political influence
. An important example is the assertion of its sovereignty over the islands of the South China Sea; proceed to the occupation of these islands and dredge new ones to establish military installations and station advanced weapons, such as missiles and bombers, to dissuade those who have competing claims.
If China is able to fully secure the South China Sea It will be able to control trade flows as well as naval and military movements that could be considered hostile.
The Chinese ignored the objections of the United States, Australia and other countries in the region following this takeover. remained undeterred. In the process, the South China Sea has been transformed into a Chinese virtual lake.
Combined with the emerging trade war between the two countries, the US's resolve to counter China is indicative of a worsening of the situation in the Indo-Pacific region.
The question is: will the United States go to China? In some ways, it is already doing so by imposing tariffs on Chinese exports, China falling back on its own list of dutiable imports from the United States. President Trump has threatened to extend US tariffs to all that is needed, creating the prospect of a trade war. If nothing is done, this could possibly create momentum for a wider conflict beyond trade issues.
Coming back to the South China Sea, the United States wants to cooperate with Australia to counter China. China also finances infrastructure projects in the South Pacific countries, considered to be in the backyard of Australia. The argument is that these projects are not productive, designed primarily to overthrow the sovereignty of small countries in the region by imposing unsustainable debts.
In an interview with Peter Hartcher, Sydney Morning Herald International Editor, Randy Schriver The defense of East and Pacific Asia would have stressed the need to impose "costs" on China to militarize the artificial islands that it has built in the South China Sea.
Building in a different way from the Chinese. It is not predatory, it is clean and transparent. But we must show ourselves, we must do it [to counter China]. "
Expanding on China's game plan, Schriver said:" … you will see a little more assurance "of the Chinese armed forces on the" It means you're in Chinese territory ", which, according to Schriver, is the" trajectory "of China, and the United States would counteract it by a series of measures, including The United States apparently consulting countries other than Australia for to counter China on the South China Sea and South Pacific side, although Schriver has not identified freedom of navigation operations, any other country with which the United States could interact in this regard. would have said: "In my discussions with our counterparts [in other like-minded countries] we wish to cooperate to give the small South Pacific countries an alternative to China's" predatory habits. "
Combined with the emerging trade war between the United States' determination United to counter the Chi is indicative of the worsening situation in the Indo-Pacific region
China would have preferred 5 to 10 more years to consolidate its position, both economically and strategically. On the economic front, it would have liked to expand its economy to reduce its dependence on exports, of which the United States is a major outlet. The US offensive in the trade war can lead to social unrest in China due to increased unemployment in export-dependent industries.
The Chinese government is very sensitive to this because the Communist Party's implicit pact with its people is based on better economic conditions. while retaining the monopoly of political power. The military situation in the South China Sea could complicate the internal uncertainty as to how it will unfold, nobody guesses it?
The writer is a veteran journalist and scholar based in Sydney, Australia
Posted in Daily Times, July 30 th 2018.
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