Churn In The Neighborhood: In polls under Taliban shadow, test for two countries and an old bond

To vote in Kandahar in October. (Photo: AP)

When the Indian Consul General in Kandahar, visited the family of General Abdul Raziq after his assassination by the Taliban, it was reported in New Delhi.

Gen Raziq, chief of the Afghan intelligence service in Kandahar, was seen as a hero for fighting against the Taliban and Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani. His assassination ahead of the October elections shook Afghanistan in a way similar to the killing of Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Masoud in 2001, days before 9/11.

In Afghanistan, the path to democracy has been challenged by violence perpetrated by Taliban. This was the third time Afghans voted in the post-Taliban period. In a series of major attacks, the casualties over 500 in the attack in Ghazni in August, and 2018 is set to be the deadliest year of the 17-year war since 9/11. According to the latest UN data, seven Afghan adults and two children were killed each day in the first six months of this year, with another 19 civilians injured each day. About 90% of the attacks are believed to be by the Taliban.

Taliban vs democracy

In this kind of situation, the holding of elections – which have been delayed by one or more years – is being seen as a vote towards democracy. About 89 lakh voters were registered, and many showed courage in coming out and voting. The final results are expected on November 10, and the final results by December 20.

These elections need to be seen in the context of the reconciliation process with the Taliban. With presidential elections due for 2019, the Taliban is striking at democratic processes, with almost half the country being under their control. They do not seem to be in a mood to negotiate until the power equilibrium is clear after the 2019 polls.

"On any given day in Afghanistan, there is a mixture of emotions – optimism, pessimism, frustration and inspiration, and all types of emotions happen before 9 am. And then, it's a rinse and repeat through the day, "a top diplomat had recently said.

At least five major political parties are jockeying for influence in the parliament, Wolesi Jirga. They are Jamaat-e-Islami led by Salahuddin Rabbani, People's Islamic Unity Party of Afghanistan led by Mohammed Mohaqiq, Hezb-e-Wahadat-e-Islamiye by Karim Khalili, Hizb-e-Jamhoori Afghanistan (Republican Part of Afghanistan) led by Sebghatullah Sanjar, Junbish-i-Milli Islami Afghanistan (National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan) led by Abdul Rashid Dostum.

The President has a veto on all laws passed, a parliamentarian has extraordinary access to the higher echelons of government and international funding -something that has created a democratic elite.

India, Afghanistan, Pakistan

In September, when President Ashraf Ghani visited New Delhi and Met Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his conversation with Indian interlocutors reflected many strands. India has witnessed an increased threat perception on Indian nationals and interests in recent months. In May, seven Indian engineers with a power company were abducted, and they are still in custody. In August, an Indian chef working with an international company was shot dead. Ghani shared his assessment of the security situation.

Ghani, who visited Ghazni days after Afghan forces backed by US air-power evicted "insurgents", has publicly slammed Pakistan's military chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who would have been assured that cross-border terrorism would not be allowed. "General Bajwa, you signed a conversation with us and told us repeatedly [in Pakistan] are paying attention to it. I need answers now. … "Where do they come from and why are they receiving treatment in your hospitals?" Ghani has said. Bajwa denied any involvement.

With Pakistan's Army and the ISI being blamed for the Ghazni attack, Ghani shared with Modi that about 100 "foreign" nationals were part of the attack.

New Delhi also expressed its concerns to Ghani about the attack on the Sikh community leadership in Afghanistan before the elections. The recent spate of kidnappings of Indian nationals comes after a previous wave – between 2003 and 2008, three Indians were kidnapped and released; two others were absducted and killed.

Multiple concerns

India, which has provided $ 2 billion in assistance to reconstruction and development projects, committed $ 1 billion last year. This president was announced after US President Donald Trump unveiled a South Asia strategy in August last year. India has agreed to help Afghanistan in number of ways. Purpose, if the poll outcome favors Taliban, New Delhi's plans may be a setback. So, despite US pressure, it has been careful in not putting its boots on the ground.

In fact, the latest request came from Trump himself, about a year ago, when he asked for a change to the ASEAN & East Asia summit in the United States in November last year, "Why does not India put troops in Afghanistan? ? "The Indian side had to gently articulate its rationale for assistance for Afghanistan's reconstruction and development in the civilian sector.

India, which has differences with the US, Russia and other international partners in Taliban, has backed Afghanistan's democratically elected government, led by Ghani, on Taliban. That's the reason why India did not agree to participate in Taliban, organized by Moscow, when Afghan government officials were not present.

For India, Kabuliwala has historically defined its relationship with Kabul. Ghani once said in 2015, "Kabuliwala has done more to give us (Afghanistan) which we could not buy with billion dollars of advertisements." This was a reference to Rabindranath Tagore's short story Kabuliwala, a friendship between Mini and Rahmud, the fruit- seller from Kabul.

Avinash Paliwal, lecturer in diplomacy and public policy at SOAS University of London, wrote in My Enemy's Enemy: India in Afghanistan from the Soviet Invasion to the US Withdrawal that when the US-led NATO forces entered Afghanistan in 2001, India did not participate in the war. "There was an emotional bond, the Kabuliwala bond with the Afghans, there was a perception of Afghanistan in India," quoted an Indian Army officer, privy to policy discussions, as saying. As the US war on terror, India decided to do development work. India's search for friends is guided by its rivalry with Islamabad, and also the historic bonds with Afghanistan, Paliwal wrote.

As it waits for the poll outcome, India has its task of living in the strife-torn country, in the face of security challenges and threats to Indian nationals and interests. And New Delhi may have to experience all types of emotions – optimism, pessimism, frustration and inspiration, as described by the top diplomat.

For all the latest Explained News, download Indian Express App