Economists see faster growth in the third quarter

The economy probably grew at a faster pace in the third quarter, as strong public spending on public goods and services, especially infrastructure, offset the impact of higher prices on consumer spending.

According to seven economists surveyed by the Inquirer last week, gross domestic product (GDP) would have grown more than 6.1% between July and September, exceeding growth of 6% in the second quarter.

Economic officials blamed the slower-than-expected second quarter growth rate for high inflation as well as the implementation of several environmental policies affecting the agriculture and services sectors, including the six-month shutdown. and the rehabilitation of Boracay's main tourist destination. Island.

The government will announce the third quarter GDP performance on Thursday.

But Emilio Neri Jr., vice-president and chief economist at Bank of the Philippine Islands, forecast annual growth of only 5.9 percent in the third quarter, as "net exports will continue to dampen oil prices and oil prices." soaring prices ". capital goods, as well as merchandise exports, continue to decline.

"The slowdown in agricultural production and the deceleration in electricity sales also point to continued weakness in production in the third quarter. Thus, despite the sustained strength of public and private investment spending, which boosted construction and commercial sectors in the third quarter, weak demand for non-food and non-fuel consumer goods probably continued to weigh spending during the quarter, especially as the dollar value of remittances continues to slow down, "said Neri.

The highest forecast, meanwhile, was 6.7%, said Guian Angelo Dumalagan, market economist at the Land Bank of the Philippines, citing "faster gains in most spending components."

"Government spending has increased, as have capital expenditures, supported by the government's Build, Build, Build program. The recovery in exports has also helped accelerate growth. While consumer spending improved, its rate of increase was tempered by soaring consumer prices, which weighed on household purchasing power. On the production side, the service and industry sectors continued to drive growth, offsetting the negative impact of the agriculture sector, "said Dumalagan.

Beatrice Tanjangco, chief economist at Oxford Economics, forecast 6.5% growth in the third quarter, as rising inflation should continue to weigh on private consumption and overall domestic demand. consumption.

Michael Ricafort, of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., expects GDP growth in the range of 6.3 to 6.5 percent in the third quarter, in part due to election-related expenses announced before the start of the year. mid-term elections in May of next year.

According to the forecast of the senior economist ING Nicholas Antonio Mapa, of 6.3%, "we may have to see the other sectors of the economy" take over ", consumption being relegated to the background , households experiencing the double backlash of accelerating inflation and high borrowing costs after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas hike [interest rates by] 150 basis points in just a few months. "

Katrina Ell, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said his 6.3% Q3 expansion forecast reflected a slowdown in manufacturing, albeit partly offset by "still optimistic" investment and export performance.

For Alvin Ang, professor of economics at Ateneo de Manila University, the economy has probably grown by 6.1% between July and September, "as consumption slowed down and the government failed to not to fill the void ".

"In addition, the storms that have passed us have further weakened agricultural production," added Ang.

Regarding the Maybank Investment Bank group's chief economist, Suhaimi Bin Ilias, GDP growth for the entire second half of the year should average 6.3%, as in the first half.

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